After reading a great article from Star Tribune sports writer Patrick Reusse ("This has all the earmarks of a lengthy Twins dive"), I realized how familiar this Twins season is becoming. Reusse is spot on with his observations, and quite honestly, it's scary to truly see the similarities between the Twins of the mid-90's and the current iteration.
Hopefully, however, this current version of the Twins, both players and front office alike, will learn from the mistakes of their predecessors, and re-write history.
As fans, we have to believe that what we're seeing in 2011 is nothing more than the anomaly. The debacle that has been the 2011 season is nothing more than a season filled with incredibly bad luck, right? I mean, the injury issues alone couldn't reproduce themselves again in 2012, could they? There's really no way possible that the Twins big guns can't get back to their usual MVP selves, is there?
The problem is that, unless the organization decides to be proactive and do something, what Reusse speaks about will become gospel in 2012 and beyond. So, what can the team realistically do?
For starters, let's assume the major injuries of 2011 resolve themselves this offseason. Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Denard Span will all be back at 100% at the start of Spring Training. Let's just pretend, for a moment, that the Twins are able to re-sign both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel to solidify the core of the lineup, as well as come to terms with Joe Nathan on a multi-year deal that will enable Joe to end his career with the Twins, as it appears he wants to do. And lastly, let's also say, for argument's sake, that the banged up starting rotation returns from their myriad of arm issues. Assuming all of these things, where are the areas for the Twins to make significant changes to ensure that 2011 was nothing more than a minor speed bump?
One glaring hole needing immediate resolution going into the 2012 season is the middle infield, specifically the shortstop position. After choosing to not bring back J.J. Hardy after the 2010 season in favor of the unknown and unproven Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the Twins took a major step back. Oddly enough, the Twins front office felt Hardy's injury problems were too much to invest another year in, opting instead to let him go in trade to the Orioles. Should they feel the same way about most of the injured 2011 roster, we may be in complete rebuilding mode. In 2009, the Twins made a late-season trade to acquire Orlando Cabrera to bring some veteran stability to an important position, but decided his price tag was too high for 2010, instead signing Hardy. The problematic pattern presenting itself in this case seems that the Twins are unwilling to pay for stability at a very important position. The current options at shortstop are Trevor Plouffe and Nishioka. Plouffe has shown some signs of being a viable offensive solution at short, but his defense leaves quite a bit to be desired. Nishioka needs a major overhaul, both offensively and defensively. Until that happens, "Nishy" should be relegated to nothing but utility duty. Finding a solid veteran shortstop, either through trade or on the free agent market, should be a priority for the Twins to give themselves at least a couple of options going into spring.
Another hole needing attention is that of the bullpen. Middle relief was a major hurdle to overcome for this squad, particularly from the likes of Jose Mijares and Alex Burnett. Combined, the two relievers had an ERA near 5.00, striking out 61 batters while walking 51. Not the poster children for reliability, that's for sure. Mijares lost his late inning specialty role to Glen Perkins, who was seemingly the only bright spot in the bullpen this season. The middle relief roles, both right and left-handed, occupied by Burnett and Mijares respectively, need to be re-cast. Given the free agent market for relief pitchers in 2012, this might have to occur through trade. Regardless of how it gets done, the Twins need to address this pressing issue before pitchers and catchers report in February.
The last area needing to be seriously looked at in order to avoid a long spell of sub-par seasons is one which wasn't considered back in 1993. It's not an easy option to consider, but it should be something at least discussed. That option is a change in the coaching staff. Back in 1993, Tom Kelly was in his seventh full season as the manager of the Twins. It was hard to argue with two World Series titles in five seasons, so it seemed understandable that a change at the helm didn't need to be made right away. The coaches, however, could've possibly been shaken up a bit. With Tony Olivia retiring as the Twins' hitting coach after the 1991 season, Terry Crowley took over. Again, it might've seemed a bit rash to replace Crowley after only two season as the team's hitting instructor. Dick Such remained the team's pitching coach through the 2000 season. It's possible that a change there might have sparked something with the pitching staff, but it's difficult to say.
Fast forward to 2011, and we have a different coaching scenario than we had back in 1993, when the run of losing seasons began for the Twins. Now, we have two members of the coaching staff, hitting coach Joe Vavra, and pitching coach Rick Anderson, who have been in their positions six and eleven years, respectively. With the exception of an increase between 2007 into 2008, the Twins, as a team, have seen declines in batting average, hits, and runs under Vavra. Vavra is the second-longest tenured hitting coach in all of baseball, behind only Mickey Hatcher of the Los Angeles Angels. Similarly, Anderson has the third longest tenure amongst pitching coaches behind Dave Duncan of the Cardinals and Dave Righetti of the Giants. Before things get too out of hand, as they did in 1993, it may be wise for the Twins front office to decide to take the leadership of the team into a different direction.
2012 does not need to be the "end of the world" for the Twins, pun intended. It will only end up that way if the team decides to allow it to happen. Let's hope, for the sake of the players and fans, the decision is to erase 2011 from our memories by repeating the feat of the 1991 team, that being to finish in last place the year before contending for the title.
Showing posts with label Joe Nathan. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Joe Nathan. Show all posts
Thursday, September 22, 2011
Wednesday, August 10, 2011
Stay Positive, Just Don't Get Your Hopes Up
It's pretty hard to stay upbeat when you're 13 games under .500 and nine and half games out of first place in the division, but getting too negative and uptight isn't good for anybody.
With what we've seen over the last three weeks from the Twins, there's seemingly been very little to be positive about. Sure, they've started to get some of their injured players back (Span, Kubel), which is a plus. Sure, they're closer is back in the saddle again, and throwing almost like he did before having Tommy John surgery. But, there's nothing really positive about a team that considers itself a perpetual contender, to go over three weeks without winning a series against some of the better competition in the American League.
You'd be hard-pressed to find a more up and down Twins season than this 2011 campaign. Most of troubles have been due to numerous injuries, which have ravaged the team. The struggles, however, can't all be blamed on the injury bug. Even with some of their bigger stars on the shelf, the Twins had players who'd had major league experience filling in. They may not have been the most talented players, but guys like Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe, and Drew Butera have all seen fairly significant time in the big leagues. If we're honest about it though, the utilization of those players isn't totally to blame, either.
When a team is struggling at the plate, and is having a hard time getting runs on the board, it's absolutely vital that pitching keep them afloat. Therin lies the key to the 2011 debacle. With inconsistency in the starting rotation, a bullpen that couldn't maintain the minimal leads the offense was giving them, and a closer in Matt Capps whose fastball rivals that of some of the kids pitching in the Little League World Series this month, it's no wonder the Twins found themselves looking up at the rest of the American League Central.
The offensive struggles have come primarily from three sources: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Joe Mauer, and Delmon Young. Since returning from his leg injury, Nishioka has struggled mightily at the plate, proving that the Twins may have made a mistake, not just in signing him, but in not pursuing that which they already had in J.J. Hardy. So far, Hardy is hitting .275 with 21 HR and 40 extra-base hits. He currently has more extra-base hits than the primary Twins middle infield (Nishioka and Casilla) combined. Hardy is making $5.85 million this year, with Nishioka making only $3 million, however, if you count the $5.4 million bid the Twins spent to just speak to Nishi, they're into him for over $8 million this year. Hardy seems like the better investment at this point, wouldn't you say?
Mauer and Young have vastly underperformed this year. Mauer is riding the injury excuse, at least for another couple of weeks, but with Young, what you see is truly what you get. Both players were handled poorly during the offseason, with the Twins needing to take more of a hands-on approach with Mauer's rehab, and also a more aggressive approach trying to find a better home for Mr. Young. The result has been a combined 5 HR's and only 30 extra-base hits. And remember, J.J. Hardy has 40 himself. I'm not sayin'...I'm just sayin'.
All is not lost, however. The Twins do have some positive things to take from this season thus far. Michael Cuddyer has shown this team that he truly does have the heart to be the team's leader, on and off the field. Jim Thome is on the verge of making history with his 600th home run, which couldn't happen to a better guy. Jason Kubel has emerged as the Twins' best overall hitter, hitting for both average and power. Danny Valencia has shown some of the pop in his bat that the Twins expected when they called him up last year, sitting second on the team with 12 HR's. Ben Revere came up and proved himself to be a tremendous fielding outfielder, albeit with a tremendously weak throwing arm. And Glen Perkins has seemingly found himself a suitable role as the set-up man for Joe Nathan.
All of these things are very positive, and should be looked at as such. If the starters can improve their performances, and the veteran hitters like Mauer and Young can help to produce a few more runs, coupled with the positives mentioned...there's no reason the Twins can't still make a run for the division crown.
I just wouldn't hold my breath.
With what we've seen over the last three weeks from the Twins, there's seemingly been very little to be positive about. Sure, they've started to get some of their injured players back (Span, Kubel), which is a plus. Sure, they're closer is back in the saddle again, and throwing almost like he did before having Tommy John surgery. But, there's nothing really positive about a team that considers itself a perpetual contender, to go over three weeks without winning a series against some of the better competition in the American League.
You'd be hard-pressed to find a more up and down Twins season than this 2011 campaign. Most of troubles have been due to numerous injuries, which have ravaged the team. The struggles, however, can't all be blamed on the injury bug. Even with some of their bigger stars on the shelf, the Twins had players who'd had major league experience filling in. They may not have been the most talented players, but guys like Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe, and Drew Butera have all seen fairly significant time in the big leagues. If we're honest about it though, the utilization of those players isn't totally to blame, either.
When a team is struggling at the plate, and is having a hard time getting runs on the board, it's absolutely vital that pitching keep them afloat. Therin lies the key to the 2011 debacle. With inconsistency in the starting rotation, a bullpen that couldn't maintain the minimal leads the offense was giving them, and a closer in Matt Capps whose fastball rivals that of some of the kids pitching in the Little League World Series this month, it's no wonder the Twins found themselves looking up at the rest of the American League Central.
The offensive struggles have come primarily from three sources: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Joe Mauer, and Delmon Young. Since returning from his leg injury, Nishioka has struggled mightily at the plate, proving that the Twins may have made a mistake, not just in signing him, but in not pursuing that which they already had in J.J. Hardy. So far, Hardy is hitting .275 with 21 HR and 40 extra-base hits. He currently has more extra-base hits than the primary Twins middle infield (Nishioka and Casilla) combined. Hardy is making $5.85 million this year, with Nishioka making only $3 million, however, if you count the $5.4 million bid the Twins spent to just speak to Nishi, they're into him for over $8 million this year. Hardy seems like the better investment at this point, wouldn't you say?
Mauer and Young have vastly underperformed this year. Mauer is riding the injury excuse, at least for another couple of weeks, but with Young, what you see is truly what you get. Both players were handled poorly during the offseason, with the Twins needing to take more of a hands-on approach with Mauer's rehab, and also a more aggressive approach trying to find a better home for Mr. Young. The result has been a combined 5 HR's and only 30 extra-base hits. And remember, J.J. Hardy has 40 himself. I'm not sayin'...I'm just sayin'.
All is not lost, however. The Twins do have some positive things to take from this season thus far. Michael Cuddyer has shown this team that he truly does have the heart to be the team's leader, on and off the field. Jim Thome is on the verge of making history with his 600th home run, which couldn't happen to a better guy. Jason Kubel has emerged as the Twins' best overall hitter, hitting for both average and power. Danny Valencia has shown some of the pop in his bat that the Twins expected when they called him up last year, sitting second on the team with 12 HR's. Ben Revere came up and proved himself to be a tremendous fielding outfielder, albeit with a tremendously weak throwing arm. And Glen Perkins has seemingly found himself a suitable role as the set-up man for Joe Nathan.
All of these things are very positive, and should be looked at as such. If the starters can improve their performances, and the veteran hitters like Mauer and Young can help to produce a few more runs, coupled with the positives mentioned...there's no reason the Twins can't still make a run for the division crown.
I just wouldn't hold my breath.
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Capps Out; Perkins In?
Ron Gardenhire should know what to do right now. For the second time in the last three games, he's had to take his closer out of the game in favor of Glen Perkins to try and save two wins. This after Matt Capps had an inexcusable blown save Saturday against the Brewers, coughing up a three-run lead in the ninth inning. With the starting rotation doing everything in its power to keep this team relatively above water (albeit still in the shallow end), Gardy needs to make the right decision here. Demoting Matt Capps from the closer role, and promoting Perkins, who is proving to be the most consistent asset out of the bullpen this season.
With the blown save Saturday, Capps now leads Major League Baseball with six blown saves. That's six times he's let his starters down this season. When closers are as shaky as Capps has been, it begins to affect the rest of the team. Fortunately, the bullpen instability seems to have improved the performance of the starting rotation. Until leaving in the fifth inning with a right elbow strain, Scott Baker was throwing a terrific game, locating his pitches well, and throwing a minimal amount of pitches through those first few innings. Knowing that turning the ball over to the bullpen this season has likely meant either a no-decision or a loss, the starters have been really bearing down, putting together a great run over the last five weeks, and pulling the Twins within striking distance going into the All-Star break.
In order for the Twins to stay within range of the Indians and Tigers atop the division, Gardy will need to ensure that the leads his lineup are staking the starters to are not wasted away by the bullpen, namely a closer like Capps. As I've said before, just because you were great last year doesn't mean you will always be great. As a manager, Gardenhire needs to look at the current status of the team. Right now, that status indicates that Capps is not the right guy for the job. As he begins to show continued improvement coming off his Tommy John surgery, maybe Joe Nathan will be ready to reassume his role later this season, but for right now, the choice should be Glen Perkins, who has proven his worth this season as the best option in an otherwise forgettable bullpen.
Before the season began, it seemed like a perfect scenario, to have both Capps and Nathan in the closer role, given Nathan's injury status. Having that alternative, that back-up, was more than the team could ask for. Now, as we sit five days into the month of July, the question should be asked: Would Capps have any value for a team as we near the trade deadline? If the Twins begin to utilize both Perkins and Nathan in that closer role, and move Capps back into the bullpen as more of a set-up man, would be become expendable? The answer should be..."yes". Hindsight is always 20/20, and given what we'd seen last season from the closer role (remembering that Nathan was out from the beginning) it's possible that maybe trading for Capps wasn't the best decision. Even John Rauch, who began the year in the closer role, only blew four (4) saves last season. Here we sit on July 5th, and Capps, an established closer, has blown six (6). Moreover, the man the Twins traded for Capps, Wilson Ramos, has outhit both Drew Butera and Rene Rivera this season. With the Twins knowing their All-Star catcher has some lingering knee and leg issues, it might not have been the smartest idea to unload your best option to back him up behind the plate. But, they did, and here we sit. Like I said...hindsight's 20/20.
Just because a closer loses his spot at the end of the game doesn't mean he's done being a closer. Brad Lidge went through a difficult time back in 2007 with the Astros, and was feeling probably just like Capps is feeling now, as though nothing you do can go right. The following season, after changing teams, Lidge was 41-41 in save opportunities. Maybe Capps needs nothing more than a change of scenery. Fortunately for the Twins, the trade deadline is approaching. It's time to start testing the waters for those in need of some bullpen help.
With the blown save Saturday, Capps now leads Major League Baseball with six blown saves. That's six times he's let his starters down this season. When closers are as shaky as Capps has been, it begins to affect the rest of the team. Fortunately, the bullpen instability seems to have improved the performance of the starting rotation. Until leaving in the fifth inning with a right elbow strain, Scott Baker was throwing a terrific game, locating his pitches well, and throwing a minimal amount of pitches through those first few innings. Knowing that turning the ball over to the bullpen this season has likely meant either a no-decision or a loss, the starters have been really bearing down, putting together a great run over the last five weeks, and pulling the Twins within striking distance going into the All-Star break.
In order for the Twins to stay within range of the Indians and Tigers atop the division, Gardy will need to ensure that the leads his lineup are staking the starters to are not wasted away by the bullpen, namely a closer like Capps. As I've said before, just because you were great last year doesn't mean you will always be great. As a manager, Gardenhire needs to look at the current status of the team. Right now, that status indicates that Capps is not the right guy for the job. As he begins to show continued improvement coming off his Tommy John surgery, maybe Joe Nathan will be ready to reassume his role later this season, but for right now, the choice should be Glen Perkins, who has proven his worth this season as the best option in an otherwise forgettable bullpen.
Before the season began, it seemed like a perfect scenario, to have both Capps and Nathan in the closer role, given Nathan's injury status. Having that alternative, that back-up, was more than the team could ask for. Now, as we sit five days into the month of July, the question should be asked: Would Capps have any value for a team as we near the trade deadline? If the Twins begin to utilize both Perkins and Nathan in that closer role, and move Capps back into the bullpen as more of a set-up man, would be become expendable? The answer should be..."yes". Hindsight is always 20/20, and given what we'd seen last season from the closer role (remembering that Nathan was out from the beginning) it's possible that maybe trading for Capps wasn't the best decision. Even John Rauch, who began the year in the closer role, only blew four (4) saves last season. Here we sit on July 5th, and Capps, an established closer, has blown six (6). Moreover, the man the Twins traded for Capps, Wilson Ramos, has outhit both Drew Butera and Rene Rivera this season. With the Twins knowing their All-Star catcher has some lingering knee and leg issues, it might not have been the smartest idea to unload your best option to back him up behind the plate. But, they did, and here we sit. Like I said...hindsight's 20/20.
Just because a closer loses his spot at the end of the game doesn't mean he's done being a closer. Brad Lidge went through a difficult time back in 2007 with the Astros, and was feeling probably just like Capps is feeling now, as though nothing you do can go right. The following season, after changing teams, Lidge was 41-41 in save opportunities. Maybe Capps needs nothing more than a change of scenery. Fortunately for the Twins, the trade deadline is approaching. It's time to start testing the waters for those in need of some bullpen help.
Monday, July 4, 2011
Closing The Door On Closers
Another day, another blown save. That's been the story for the 2011 Minnesota Twins. Between Joe Nathan early in the season, and Matt Capps shortly thereafter, the Twins have been having a very difficult time showing confidence in their closers. With Saturday night's blown save and subsequent loss against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Twins ran their total to 17 of 30 in save opportunities this season. Something to think about, especially for a team sitting nine games under .500 for the season. Imagine what those additional 13 games could mean in the standings, considering the Twins are only 8 games back of the Cleveland Indians for first place in the American League Central.
So, exactly how important is it to have a reliable closer in baseball? It's something we've heard about for many years, that having that "terminator" type hurler at the back of the bullpen is a must for any team considering a run at the World Series Championship. Would you believe that in 2009, the Phillies advanced to the World Series after having blown a total of 22 saves during the year? Strangely enough, the 2010 Texas Rangers blew 20 saves and still made it to the World Series, only to go down to the San Francisco Giants. Are saves really the end-all-be-all when it comes to making it into the playoffs? For that matter, are closers even really that important?
With the roller coaster ride that's been the Twins' season thus far, it's obvious that it hasn't been just the bullpen that has cost them many games. It's also fair to say that they are where they are in large part to the bullpen's ineffectiveness throughout the first half. Nathan and Capps have both been the reason for many nervous stomachs in Twins Territory, but the middle relief has been equally to blame. In fact, during the Twins 8-game win streak earlier in June, it almost seemed clear to everyone that Ron Gardernhire and Rick Anderson had such little faith in their bullpen that the phrase "pitch count" seemed to escape both of their vocabularies. We saw pitch counts in the 110-120 range for almost all of the starters at one point during that stretch. Kudos to the starters for putting the team on their backs and throwing some of the best baseball they have in a long time. But at some point, the bullpen needs to hold its own.
Given Capps recent tendency to give up the lead late, it seemed as though Gardy was sending a message on Sunday afternoon, handing the ball to Glen Perkins to close the game out. His reasoning was almost as nonsensical as the defense's closing arguments in the Casey Anthony murder trial. His explanation for allowing the left-handed Perkins to face Prince Fielder of the Brewers was more about the "match-up" than it was about a lack of confidence in Capps. Really? Since when do you play the match-up card when dealing with closers? I'm sure we'll hear the same logic from Joe Girardi of the Yankees when he decides to lift Mariano Rivera for the left-handed Boone Logan to face two lefties in the top of the ninth.
The save is the most over-rated statistic in all of sports. The object in baseball, as in any sport, is to win the game. What I've never been able to figure out is why the idea of match-ups are forgotten when it comes to closers. As fans, we can sit and watch managers come in and out of the dugout three or four times in the seventh or eighth inning, going from lefty to righty to lefty again based on which side of the batter's box the next hitter steps in to, yet, in the ninth inning, we will see that same manager bring a right-handed closer into the lineup to face the middle of a team's lineup comprised of all left-handed hitters. Really? So...the match-ups don't matter now? How does that work?
What the Twins need to do is just win games. If that means playing the match-up game in the ninth inning instead of giving the ball to either Capps or Nathan, then that's what Gardy needs to do. The closer-by-committee option isn't a bad one, it's just not the norm.
So, exactly how important is it to have a reliable closer in baseball? It's something we've heard about for many years, that having that "terminator" type hurler at the back of the bullpen is a must for any team considering a run at the World Series Championship. Would you believe that in 2009, the Phillies advanced to the World Series after having blown a total of 22 saves during the year? Strangely enough, the 2010 Texas Rangers blew 20 saves and still made it to the World Series, only to go down to the San Francisco Giants. Are saves really the end-all-be-all when it comes to making it into the playoffs? For that matter, are closers even really that important?
With the roller coaster ride that's been the Twins' season thus far, it's obvious that it hasn't been just the bullpen that has cost them many games. It's also fair to say that they are where they are in large part to the bullpen's ineffectiveness throughout the first half. Nathan and Capps have both been the reason for many nervous stomachs in Twins Territory, but the middle relief has been equally to blame. In fact, during the Twins 8-game win streak earlier in June, it almost seemed clear to everyone that Ron Gardernhire and Rick Anderson had such little faith in their bullpen that the phrase "pitch count" seemed to escape both of their vocabularies. We saw pitch counts in the 110-120 range for almost all of the starters at one point during that stretch. Kudos to the starters for putting the team on their backs and throwing some of the best baseball they have in a long time. But at some point, the bullpen needs to hold its own.
Given Capps recent tendency to give up the lead late, it seemed as though Gardy was sending a message on Sunday afternoon, handing the ball to Glen Perkins to close the game out. His reasoning was almost as nonsensical as the defense's closing arguments in the Casey Anthony murder trial. His explanation for allowing the left-handed Perkins to face Prince Fielder of the Brewers was more about the "match-up" than it was about a lack of confidence in Capps. Really? Since when do you play the match-up card when dealing with closers? I'm sure we'll hear the same logic from Joe Girardi of the Yankees when he decides to lift Mariano Rivera for the left-handed Boone Logan to face two lefties in the top of the ninth.
The save is the most over-rated statistic in all of sports. The object in baseball, as in any sport, is to win the game. What I've never been able to figure out is why the idea of match-ups are forgotten when it comes to closers. As fans, we can sit and watch managers come in and out of the dugout three or four times in the seventh or eighth inning, going from lefty to righty to lefty again based on which side of the batter's box the next hitter steps in to, yet, in the ninth inning, we will see that same manager bring a right-handed closer into the lineup to face the middle of a team's lineup comprised of all left-handed hitters. Really? So...the match-ups don't matter now? How does that work?
What the Twins need to do is just win games. If that means playing the match-up game in the ninth inning instead of giving the ball to either Capps or Nathan, then that's what Gardy needs to do. The closer-by-committee option isn't a bad one, it's just not the norm.
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