Let's be honest...
Had the Twins begun the 2012 season by winning two of their first four games, many fans would've considered that a positive.
Had someone told you the Twins would start the 2012 season 0-4, many fans would've probably said "Yea, that wouldn't surprise me."
Had the Twins jumped out to a 4-0 start on the year, many fans would probably be saying, "Yea, but it won't last. They're not really that good."
So, with the honesty out of the bag, why are Twins fans willing to pack the 2012 season in with 158 games left to play?
There's no doubt that the start of this season has been frustrating for fans. It's difficult to stay positive after what we witnessed last year, and what appears to be a mirror image through four games of this season. But to assume that this team won't turn things around sooner rather than later is a bit negative. And that's coming from someone who has had his share of negative opinions of this organization over the last couple of years.
For many teams and players, it's sometimes difficult to jump out of the gates hot. Often times, when teams do look "hot," it's because the team they're playing isn't. Are Red Sox fans running for the hills because Josh Beckett got lit up in his first outing of the year? On the flip side, we know the Tigers are going to be one of the better American League teams, but are they that good to sweep a team like the Red Sox without so much as batting an eye? The answer to both questions is...no.
What Twins fans need to realize is that things will come. The offense will turn around and begin hitting the ball hard. We've already seen evidence of Josh Willingham being able to drive the ball over the fence, and Justin Morneau has been making solid contact when bat has met ball. We've seen some positive things from a couple of pitchers, namely Glen Perkins and a five-inning stretch from Nick Blackburn. The defense has been a little shaky to start, which we all had hoped would be better. But all-in-all, if people were expecting perfection out of the gates, they might want to re-evaluate their level of baseball knowledge.
The Twins will be fine. We're not expecting a Division Title, are we? We're just expecting them to be better than last year. And that will be the case.
Showing posts with label Glen Perkins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Glen Perkins. Show all posts
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Thursday, April 5, 2012
"The Miz's" 2012 Minnesota Twins Predictions
There's really only one direction to go after a dismal 2011, right?
Coming off the franchise's worst season since 1982 (102 losses), there is a lot that Twins fans could feel optimistic about going into 2012. For starters, could it possibly get any worse than last year? Significant injuries to significant players, shaky defense from a typically solid fielding ball club, and sub-par pitching from...well, let's face it...a barely par staff, all led to a barely watchable season of baseball for fans of our local nine. One would hope, however, that the injuries, poor fielding, and inept pitching could not repeat themselves in 2012.
With Terry Ryan back in the saddle, Twins fans should at least be comforted with one thought: At least we'll be competitive, as most Terry Ryan-fielded teams are. The Twins may not win the division, but at least fans won't flock in droves to Stub-Hub to unload their tickets, as appeared to be the case in August and September of 2011.
Knowing that a major part of the Twins' success centers around health, getting through Spring Training appears to have been a major success, with the exception of Scott Baker. Baker has been hampered by elbow problems again this spring, which will keep him out of the rotation for a few weeks, especially given his setback on Thursday evening. Regardless, injuries occur, and are not often something that can be planned around. So, given that fact, for the sake of these predictions, we're going to assume 100% health, or at least what we know now going into the Season Opener against Baltimore on Friday.
1.) The Twins will raise their team run total from 619 runs in 2011 to 725 in 2012.
With the re-additions of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau into the lineup, coupled with the integration of Chris Parmelee as a full-time first baseman, the Twins will have a solid core of potentially high average hitters. Having two veterans in Denard Span and Jamey Carroll setting the table at the top of the lineup, the team should be able to sustain quite a few more longer-than-normal innings on the offensive end, which will lead to more run-scoring throughout the season. Because of the uncertainty with the pitching staff, however, this won't necessarily translate into more wins for the team. The offense won't be as anemic as 2011, which will no doubt help their cause, but don't be surprised to see the Twins lose a few more 8-7 and 10-9 games this year.
2.) Chris Parmelee will win American League Rookie of the Year.
This would be considered my "bold" prediction of the 2012 season. To be honest, I haven't been this excited for a Twins rookie in quite a long time. During the final few weeks of 2011, Parmelee showed he could no doubt hang with the big boys, if given the opportunity to play. Unfortunately, with Justin Morneau occupying first base, that didn't appear to be something that would happen any time soon. With Ron Gardenhire's decision to move Morneau permanently into the DH spot in 2012 (or at least for the foreseeable future), the path was paved for Parmelee to take the reigns at first base. For a young hitter, he has tremendous vision at the plate, can work the count deep, and can also deposit the ball over the fence. Look for this kid to garner a lot of attention from fans, and the baseball media alike, as the season progresses.
3.) Glen Perkins will become the team's closer by the end of May.
I really want this to be more of a reflection on Perkins' talent as a relief pitcher than a shot at Matt Capps, but unfortunately, that will be hard to justify. Capps will be the team's closer entering the regular season, and all signs should point to him rebounding from a difficult season in 2011, which saw him booed mercilessly by Twins fans. The fact of the matter is, regardless of how great a guy he is, or what he brings to the clubhouse, Capps' style of pitching will become more of a liability than an asset. With a mediocre fastball, and really no "go to" pitch to get hitters out, Capps has decided to bring a split-finger fastball into his repertoire. If, and when, this new pitch begins to falter, Capps will find himself going back to what he's been accustomed to, which is the fastball. As that happens, hitters will be ready, and Twins fans will find themselves pulling their hair out a couple of times in April and May. Perkins will be given the opportunity, and will run with it. By season's end, look for Perkins to have more saves than Capps.
4.) Francisco Liriano will set a career high with 18 wins.
We all know he has the talent. We all know he has the right stuff. It's just time for Frankie to believe it himself, and go out there with confidence. If his spring was any indication, it seems like he may just have figured it out. In 27 spring innings, Liriano had a 2.33 ERA, allowed only 27 hits, surrendered only 5 walks, and struck out 33. Obviously, the hitters one faces during a spring game are potentially much different than one might face in the regular season, so the hits and strikeouts could be a bit deceiving. The walks, however, are something that can be looked at with great excitement. What Liriano appears to have figured out is that the devastating slider he has (and yes, it is nasty) does not need to be thrown three or four times an at-bat. He's begun to realize that locating the fastball and getting ahead of hitters will allow him the ability to drop that slider in when it's actually needed. That type of control is exactly what he needs to be successful. As always with Liriano, only time will tell, but from the signs we're all seeing, this season looks like a promising one.
5.) The Twins will be relevant in the American League Central race through August.
OK, so, this one's a little vague. Having lost 99 games in 2011, many people around baseball, as well as many fans of the Twins locally, have already written the 2012 team off as being too similar to their 2011 predecessor. As I stated early on in this post, assuming they're not struck down by the injury bug once again, this team, although appearing similar, is actually different. The lineup, in my opinion, actually got stronger. With the additions of new left fielder Josh Willingham, and back-up catcher/right fielder Ryan Doumit, Parmelee at first base, and a healthy Mauer and Morneau, this Twins lineup should a.) hit for a higher average, b.) hit more home runs, and thus c.) drive in more runs than the 2011 club. Defensively, the Twins brought in Jamey Carroll to solidify the middle infield with Alexi Casilla. Again, injuries were a huge driving force behind the poor fielding seen during 2011, with many players playing positions they may not have been accustomed to. Lastly, if the pitching staff can keep the team in ballgames, (which obviously sounds very cliche, but true), the team will have a chance to win quite a few more games than last season. My second "bold" prediction is that your Minnesota Twins will actually improve their win total to 86 games (up from 63 in 2011). Unfortunately, 86 wins won't be enough to overtake Detroit in the division this season, although it will be much closer than people think. The Twins will, however, finish second in the AL Central, just ahead of the Cleveland Indians.
All told, the 2012 Minnesota Twins should be much more interesting to watch, be a much more exciting team to cheer for, and frankly, be more of a contending team than many are expecting.
Friday starts it off. As of now, it's a clean slate. 0-0. My prediction: 86-76, second in the American League Central.
Coming off the franchise's worst season since 1982 (102 losses), there is a lot that Twins fans could feel optimistic about going into 2012. For starters, could it possibly get any worse than last year? Significant injuries to significant players, shaky defense from a typically solid fielding ball club, and sub-par pitching from...well, let's face it...a barely par staff, all led to a barely watchable season of baseball for fans of our local nine. One would hope, however, that the injuries, poor fielding, and inept pitching could not repeat themselves in 2012.
With Terry Ryan back in the saddle, Twins fans should at least be comforted with one thought: At least we'll be competitive, as most Terry Ryan-fielded teams are. The Twins may not win the division, but at least fans won't flock in droves to Stub-Hub to unload their tickets, as appeared to be the case in August and September of 2011.
Knowing that a major part of the Twins' success centers around health, getting through Spring Training appears to have been a major success, with the exception of Scott Baker. Baker has been hampered by elbow problems again this spring, which will keep him out of the rotation for a few weeks, especially given his setback on Thursday evening. Regardless, injuries occur, and are not often something that can be planned around. So, given that fact, for the sake of these predictions, we're going to assume 100% health, or at least what we know now going into the Season Opener against Baltimore on Friday.
1.) The Twins will raise their team run total from 619 runs in 2011 to 725 in 2012.
With the re-additions of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau into the lineup, coupled with the integration of Chris Parmelee as a full-time first baseman, the Twins will have a solid core of potentially high average hitters. Having two veterans in Denard Span and Jamey Carroll setting the table at the top of the lineup, the team should be able to sustain quite a few more longer-than-normal innings on the offensive end, which will lead to more run-scoring throughout the season. Because of the uncertainty with the pitching staff, however, this won't necessarily translate into more wins for the team. The offense won't be as anemic as 2011, which will no doubt help their cause, but don't be surprised to see the Twins lose a few more 8-7 and 10-9 games this year.
2.) Chris Parmelee will win American League Rookie of the Year.
This would be considered my "bold" prediction of the 2012 season. To be honest, I haven't been this excited for a Twins rookie in quite a long time. During the final few weeks of 2011, Parmelee showed he could no doubt hang with the big boys, if given the opportunity to play. Unfortunately, with Justin Morneau occupying first base, that didn't appear to be something that would happen any time soon. With Ron Gardenhire's decision to move Morneau permanently into the DH spot in 2012 (or at least for the foreseeable future), the path was paved for Parmelee to take the reigns at first base. For a young hitter, he has tremendous vision at the plate, can work the count deep, and can also deposit the ball over the fence. Look for this kid to garner a lot of attention from fans, and the baseball media alike, as the season progresses.
3.) Glen Perkins will become the team's closer by the end of May.
I really want this to be more of a reflection on Perkins' talent as a relief pitcher than a shot at Matt Capps, but unfortunately, that will be hard to justify. Capps will be the team's closer entering the regular season, and all signs should point to him rebounding from a difficult season in 2011, which saw him booed mercilessly by Twins fans. The fact of the matter is, regardless of how great a guy he is, or what he brings to the clubhouse, Capps' style of pitching will become more of a liability than an asset. With a mediocre fastball, and really no "go to" pitch to get hitters out, Capps has decided to bring a split-finger fastball into his repertoire. If, and when, this new pitch begins to falter, Capps will find himself going back to what he's been accustomed to, which is the fastball. As that happens, hitters will be ready, and Twins fans will find themselves pulling their hair out a couple of times in April and May. Perkins will be given the opportunity, and will run with it. By season's end, look for Perkins to have more saves than Capps.
4.) Francisco Liriano will set a career high with 18 wins.
We all know he has the talent. We all know he has the right stuff. It's just time for Frankie to believe it himself, and go out there with confidence. If his spring was any indication, it seems like he may just have figured it out. In 27 spring innings, Liriano had a 2.33 ERA, allowed only 27 hits, surrendered only 5 walks, and struck out 33. Obviously, the hitters one faces during a spring game are potentially much different than one might face in the regular season, so the hits and strikeouts could be a bit deceiving. The walks, however, are something that can be looked at with great excitement. What Liriano appears to have figured out is that the devastating slider he has (and yes, it is nasty) does not need to be thrown three or four times an at-bat. He's begun to realize that locating the fastball and getting ahead of hitters will allow him the ability to drop that slider in when it's actually needed. That type of control is exactly what he needs to be successful. As always with Liriano, only time will tell, but from the signs we're all seeing, this season looks like a promising one.
5.) The Twins will be relevant in the American League Central race through August.
OK, so, this one's a little vague. Having lost 99 games in 2011, many people around baseball, as well as many fans of the Twins locally, have already written the 2012 team off as being too similar to their 2011 predecessor. As I stated early on in this post, assuming they're not struck down by the injury bug once again, this team, although appearing similar, is actually different. The lineup, in my opinion, actually got stronger. With the additions of new left fielder Josh Willingham, and back-up catcher/right fielder Ryan Doumit, Parmelee at first base, and a healthy Mauer and Morneau, this Twins lineup should a.) hit for a higher average, b.) hit more home runs, and thus c.) drive in more runs than the 2011 club. Defensively, the Twins brought in Jamey Carroll to solidify the middle infield with Alexi Casilla. Again, injuries were a huge driving force behind the poor fielding seen during 2011, with many players playing positions they may not have been accustomed to. Lastly, if the pitching staff can keep the team in ballgames, (which obviously sounds very cliche, but true), the team will have a chance to win quite a few more games than last season. My second "bold" prediction is that your Minnesota Twins will actually improve their win total to 86 games (up from 63 in 2011). Unfortunately, 86 wins won't be enough to overtake Detroit in the division this season, although it will be much closer than people think. The Twins will, however, finish second in the AL Central, just ahead of the Cleveland Indians.
All told, the 2012 Minnesota Twins should be much more interesting to watch, be a much more exciting team to cheer for, and frankly, be more of a contending team than many are expecting.
Friday starts it off. As of now, it's a clean slate. 0-0. My prediction: 86-76, second in the American League Central.
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Capps Out; Perkins In?
Ron Gardenhire should know what to do right now. For the second time in the last three games, he's had to take his closer out of the game in favor of Glen Perkins to try and save two wins. This after Matt Capps had an inexcusable blown save Saturday against the Brewers, coughing up a three-run lead in the ninth inning. With the starting rotation doing everything in its power to keep this team relatively above water (albeit still in the shallow end), Gardy needs to make the right decision here. Demoting Matt Capps from the closer role, and promoting Perkins, who is proving to be the most consistent asset out of the bullpen this season.
With the blown save Saturday, Capps now leads Major League Baseball with six blown saves. That's six times he's let his starters down this season. When closers are as shaky as Capps has been, it begins to affect the rest of the team. Fortunately, the bullpen instability seems to have improved the performance of the starting rotation. Until leaving in the fifth inning with a right elbow strain, Scott Baker was throwing a terrific game, locating his pitches well, and throwing a minimal amount of pitches through those first few innings. Knowing that turning the ball over to the bullpen this season has likely meant either a no-decision or a loss, the starters have been really bearing down, putting together a great run over the last five weeks, and pulling the Twins within striking distance going into the All-Star break.
In order for the Twins to stay within range of the Indians and Tigers atop the division, Gardy will need to ensure that the leads his lineup are staking the starters to are not wasted away by the bullpen, namely a closer like Capps. As I've said before, just because you were great last year doesn't mean you will always be great. As a manager, Gardenhire needs to look at the current status of the team. Right now, that status indicates that Capps is not the right guy for the job. As he begins to show continued improvement coming off his Tommy John surgery, maybe Joe Nathan will be ready to reassume his role later this season, but for right now, the choice should be Glen Perkins, who has proven his worth this season as the best option in an otherwise forgettable bullpen.
Before the season began, it seemed like a perfect scenario, to have both Capps and Nathan in the closer role, given Nathan's injury status. Having that alternative, that back-up, was more than the team could ask for. Now, as we sit five days into the month of July, the question should be asked: Would Capps have any value for a team as we near the trade deadline? If the Twins begin to utilize both Perkins and Nathan in that closer role, and move Capps back into the bullpen as more of a set-up man, would be become expendable? The answer should be..."yes". Hindsight is always 20/20, and given what we'd seen last season from the closer role (remembering that Nathan was out from the beginning) it's possible that maybe trading for Capps wasn't the best decision. Even John Rauch, who began the year in the closer role, only blew four (4) saves last season. Here we sit on July 5th, and Capps, an established closer, has blown six (6). Moreover, the man the Twins traded for Capps, Wilson Ramos, has outhit both Drew Butera and Rene Rivera this season. With the Twins knowing their All-Star catcher has some lingering knee and leg issues, it might not have been the smartest idea to unload your best option to back him up behind the plate. But, they did, and here we sit. Like I said...hindsight's 20/20.
Just because a closer loses his spot at the end of the game doesn't mean he's done being a closer. Brad Lidge went through a difficult time back in 2007 with the Astros, and was feeling probably just like Capps is feeling now, as though nothing you do can go right. The following season, after changing teams, Lidge was 41-41 in save opportunities. Maybe Capps needs nothing more than a change of scenery. Fortunately for the Twins, the trade deadline is approaching. It's time to start testing the waters for those in need of some bullpen help.
With the blown save Saturday, Capps now leads Major League Baseball with six blown saves. That's six times he's let his starters down this season. When closers are as shaky as Capps has been, it begins to affect the rest of the team. Fortunately, the bullpen instability seems to have improved the performance of the starting rotation. Until leaving in the fifth inning with a right elbow strain, Scott Baker was throwing a terrific game, locating his pitches well, and throwing a minimal amount of pitches through those first few innings. Knowing that turning the ball over to the bullpen this season has likely meant either a no-decision or a loss, the starters have been really bearing down, putting together a great run over the last five weeks, and pulling the Twins within striking distance going into the All-Star break.
In order for the Twins to stay within range of the Indians and Tigers atop the division, Gardy will need to ensure that the leads his lineup are staking the starters to are not wasted away by the bullpen, namely a closer like Capps. As I've said before, just because you were great last year doesn't mean you will always be great. As a manager, Gardenhire needs to look at the current status of the team. Right now, that status indicates that Capps is not the right guy for the job. As he begins to show continued improvement coming off his Tommy John surgery, maybe Joe Nathan will be ready to reassume his role later this season, but for right now, the choice should be Glen Perkins, who has proven his worth this season as the best option in an otherwise forgettable bullpen.
Before the season began, it seemed like a perfect scenario, to have both Capps and Nathan in the closer role, given Nathan's injury status. Having that alternative, that back-up, was more than the team could ask for. Now, as we sit five days into the month of July, the question should be asked: Would Capps have any value for a team as we near the trade deadline? If the Twins begin to utilize both Perkins and Nathan in that closer role, and move Capps back into the bullpen as more of a set-up man, would be become expendable? The answer should be..."yes". Hindsight is always 20/20, and given what we'd seen last season from the closer role (remembering that Nathan was out from the beginning) it's possible that maybe trading for Capps wasn't the best decision. Even John Rauch, who began the year in the closer role, only blew four (4) saves last season. Here we sit on July 5th, and Capps, an established closer, has blown six (6). Moreover, the man the Twins traded for Capps, Wilson Ramos, has outhit both Drew Butera and Rene Rivera this season. With the Twins knowing their All-Star catcher has some lingering knee and leg issues, it might not have been the smartest idea to unload your best option to back him up behind the plate. But, they did, and here we sit. Like I said...hindsight's 20/20.
Just because a closer loses his spot at the end of the game doesn't mean he's done being a closer. Brad Lidge went through a difficult time back in 2007 with the Astros, and was feeling probably just like Capps is feeling now, as though nothing you do can go right. The following season, after changing teams, Lidge was 41-41 in save opportunities. Maybe Capps needs nothing more than a change of scenery. Fortunately for the Twins, the trade deadline is approaching. It's time to start testing the waters for those in need of some bullpen help.
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