Poor Starting Pitching May Not Just Affect Record

The Twins salvaged a split of their four-game series with the Yankees on Thursday night.  If we're being honest with ourselves, I don't think there many Twins fans who wouldn't have been happy with that outcome going into the series, especially being that it was in New York.  It was both the way they lost the two games, along with the pattern displayed throughout the series that is causing a great deal of uneasiness for fans, and quite possibly, for the team itself.

In the four-game series, the Twins scored a total of 22 runs.  In their two wins, they demonstrated an ability to string together a few clutch two-out hits, and an ability to be able to put the ball out of the ballpark.  Justin Morneau looked healthier than he has in almost two years, and showed signs that he may, in fact, be back.  Josh Willingham continued to hit the ball well, extending his season-opening hitting streak to 12 games.  And clutch hits from the likes of Jamey Carroll, Chris Parmelee, and Danny Valencia proved that not just the Big Three are capable of making contributions to the offense.

What's troubling is the fact that an average of 5.5 runs per game isn't enough to finish greater than .500.  What's concerning is that despite better-than-average bullpen support over this four-game series, the Twins still gave up a total of 23 runs.  And what's more concerning than that is that, of the 23 runs allowed, 18 were allowed by the Twins' starting pitchers.  Yes, you would expect starters to give up more of the runs seeing as they supposedly pitch more innings in the game, but that wasn't the case here.  Twins starters pitched a total of only 17 innings in the series, thanks to two abysmal performances by Francisco Liriano (2.1 innings) and Anthony Swarzak (2.2 innings).

Here are a few other numbers and ranks for the Twins' starters through 12 games of the 2012 season:

29th in Innings Pitched (61.33).  MLB Leader = Oakland (83.33).  MLB Avg = 72.94
29th in Hits/9 Innings (10.71).  MLB Leader = Washington (5.62).  MLB Avg = 8.55
28th in ERA (5.87).  MLB Leader = Washington (1.65).  MLB Avg = 4.02
28th in K's/9 Innings (4.70).  MLB Leader = New York Yankees (8.91).  MLB Avg = 6.83

What does this mean for the Twins going forward?

The obvious answer is that it means the starting pitching effort has to get better in order to achieve some success this season.  Without starters being able to get themselves into the mid-to-late innings consistently,  it will spell doom for an untested bullpen.  Thus far, the bullpen has performed much better than expected, all things considered.

What's not so obvious is the potential strain on the overall morale of the team if the starting staff isn't able to hold up its end of the bargain.

Last season, although frustrating, it was difficult for the Twins pitching staff to be upset about the level of offensive production shown by the lineup, mixed and matched throughout the year due to injury upon injury to the club's bigger weapons.  They had to go out and just try to keep the team in it, hopefully by throwing six or seven innings, giving up only two or three runs, and giving the injury-riddled lineup a chance to sneak out enough hits and runs to pull out the victory.

This season, however, will test the patience of the offense.  As displayed during the series with the Yankees, the Twins' lineup is capable of putting up some decent numbers this season.  They scored six runs in three of the four games, winning two of them.  Definitely an improvement from last year, if we're projecting that success out through the rest of 2012.

But how many times this year will this team put up five, six, or even seven runs, only to have the starting rotation allow teams right back into the game by surrendering four or five runs themselves in as many innings?  With the MLB average of runs per game sitting around 4.3, you would expect that five, six, or seven runs would be plenty sufficient to win.  But, with the Twins staff giving up an average of 5.5 runs per game, that will prove to be very straining on the team, both in the standings, and in the clubhouse.

The Twins offense, especially some of the younger players, could begin to feel some animosity toward the pitching staff, particularly the starters, if they feel like they're not pulling their weight.  Pay attention to this trend throughout the year.  If it continues, you could see this Twins team that we've come to know and love, become something we never expected.

***UPDATED***
I started writing this Friday morning, prior to Friday's game against the Rays.  Liam Hendriks pitched a 5.2 innings, giving up only one run through 5, before loading the bases in the sixth, and giving up a go-ahead 2-run homer to Evan Longoria.  All-in-all, Hendriks allowed only 4 runs, and pitched solidly for most of his outing.

Is The "Twins Way" The Definition Of Insanity?

"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."

- Albert Einstein

Technically, Einstein's definition of the word insanity isn't actually correct, however, it does make one think about various situations from time to time.  Whether it be for personal or professional reasons, many people actually ask themselves that question when they are not getting the results they're looking for.

Twins fans have been banging their heads against the wall throughout the first week of the 2012 season.  Some have been optimistic about what lies ahead, while others are looking at this first week as a harbinger of things to come.  But, are the Twins becoming the collective poster child for Einstein's famous definition?  The evidence points to a resounding "yes."

The "Twins Way" is something all Twins fans have learned to accept over the last ten years.  It started with the "Get To Know 'Em Boys" in the early 2000's and continued with the "Piranhas" a few years later.  Those collections of players had distinctive identities.  Fundamental play, timely hitting, and consistent hustle were traits those teams shared; traits this 2012 bunch appears (at least early on) to be lacking.  So given what transpired last year, and what has been seen early this season, it truly appears this team might be headed down the same path it took in 2011 unless something changes.

That "something" isn't one thing in particular.  In the offseason, everyone considers themselves a better General Manager than whomever is holding that title for the Twins, in this case, Terry Ryan.  I, myself, am guilty of it, as many of you are.  I still contend there was more that could've been done this past offseason with regard to bringing in players to plug a few key holes.  Quite frankly, in my opinion, just because the Twins didn't spend their money wisely last year doesn't mean they shouldn't continue to spend money on talent; they just need to be wiser about how they spend it and who they spend it on.  Regardless, the roster, at the moment, is what it is, and we know who the key players are.  Unfortunately, the biggest issue this year appears to be depth within the pitching department, and that's something the team will have to continue battling through.

The "something" I referred to centers around the offense, and isn't just one thing, but perhaps a series of things.  Things meant to potentially alter the insanity that currently is the 2012 Minnesota Twins.

• Switch Up The Batting Order

This is by no means an exact science, but perhaps changing up some of the roles in the lineup might do a few people some good.  For starters, it's very evident by the fan reactions of late that the honeymoon period for Joe Mauer being the "Hometown Hero" may have run its course.  Fans are expecting much, much more for Joe than they're seeing.  Is it possible the responsibility to the team coupled with the expectations of the fans has become a bigger burden on Joe than he's able to take on right now batting third.  Although Jamey Carroll has had a few good at-bats thus far, drawing six walks from the two hole, is it possible he might be better suited as the eighth place hitter?  Might someone like Danny Valenica see better pitches hitting before Justin Morneau?  The answer to all of these questions is...who knows.  The point is, at what point does Ron Gardenhire decide to try something a little different in order to potentially get a different result?

My thought here is a simple one.  When healthy, Denard Span has been one of the best lead-off hitters the Twins have had in recent memory, so he stays put at the top of the order.  Move Carroll out of the second spot, and shift Mauer up.  Now, Joe's responsibility has shifted from driving in runs to getting on base, thus allowing him to swing a little more freely.  Over his career, speaking strictly percentage-wise, his numbers are better batting second than they are third.

So, with Joe now out of the third spot in the order, who slides in?  This may get a few laughs, but I'm being completely serious when I say...Danny Valencia.  Valencia has the ability to drive the ball and hit for a bit of power at times.  Better yet, he's a right-handed bat separating Mauer and Morneau, which could prove to be potentially beneficial in later inning situations.  Plus, anyone who has supervised or managed employees knows that sometimes, you have to empower unrealized talent in order for that talent to realize it in themselves.  Give Valencia an opportunity to take the next step in his maturation process as a hitter and as a player.

Similar to Span at the top of the order, no changes need to be made to the four and five spots.  If Josh Willingham continues to pound the ball as he has during the first week, Morneau will no doubt begin to see a few better pitches, and will begin to start hitting them hard again.  After Willingham, I would move Chris Parmelee into the sixth spot in the order and drop Ryan Doumit to seventh, rounding out the bottom of the order with Carroll and Alexi Casilla.  Here's what the lineup card would ultimately look like:

1.  Denard Span, CF (L)

2.  Joe Mauer, C (L)

3.  Danny Valencia, 3B (R)

4.  Justin Morneau, DH (L)

5.  Josh Willingham, LF (R)

6.  Chris Parmelee, 1B (L)

7.  Ryan Doumit, RF (S)

8.  Jamey Carroll, SS (R)

9.  Alexi Casilla, 2B (S)

• Consistency Is Bliss

This one won't take long to explain.  Through eight games of the 2012 season, Gardenhire has trotted out six different lineups.  Knock on wood, but there are no injuries of any kind to any position players that we're aware of, yet the same lineup has not been brought out to home plate in two consecutive games thus far.  Quite honestly, this high school mentality of "everyone needs to play" is a bit absurd at this level of ball.  All nine guys I listed above in the ideal lineup should be coming to the ballpark each and every day EXPECTING to be in the starting lineup, regardless of who's on the mound for the opposition.  Now, I understand getting guys a day off here and there, but there needs to be some consistency if this thing is ever going to gel.

• Make It Happen On The Bases

In their first eight games of this season, the Twins have stranded a total of 60 runners on base.  If we're being realistic, it would've been more had the Twins been able to muster more than two hits in the finale against the Orioles.  Ultimately, the offense is relying more on trying to advance runners by just moving station to station.  In the past three seasons, the team has ranked no better than ninth in the American League in Stolen Bases, and no better than 18th in all of baseball.  With their speed, there is really no reason both Denard Span and Alexi Casilla shouldn't steal at least 30 bases a season.  Putting those runners in motion may bring a great deal of risk into the equation, but could also yield a hefty reward to a struggling offense.  Think of it this way; the Twins are tied for the Major League lead having grounded into 11 double plays this season.  They also lead baseball in the groundout to flyout ratio.  If you decide no to straight steal them, utilizing the hit and run could get opposing fielders out of position and open a few holes in the infield.  This was the type of hustle exhibited by the original Piranhas, and is something that could prove to be just what the doctor order this season.

Again, these suggestions are probably a little drastic, and maybe even unrealistic.  However, there might be something even more unrealistic than my thoughts...

...The idea that Twins fans will continue to support this team if something...anything...doesn't change.

Four Games In Is Hardly Time To Overreact!

Let's be honest...

Had the Twins begun the 2012 season by winning two of their first four games, many fans would've considered that a positive.

Had someone told you the Twins would start the 2012 season 0-4, many fans would've probably said "Yea, that wouldn't surprise me."

Had the Twins jumped out to a 4-0 start on the year, many fans would probably be saying, "Yea, but it won't last.  They're not really that good."

So, with the honesty out of the bag, why are Twins fans willing to pack the 2012 season in with 158 games left to play?

There's no doubt that the start of this season has been frustrating for fans.  It's difficult to stay positive after what we witnessed last year, and what appears to be a mirror image through four games of this season.  But to assume that this team won't turn things around sooner rather than later is a bit negative.  And that's coming from someone who has had his share of negative opinions of this organization over the last couple of years.

For many teams and players, it's sometimes difficult to jump out of the gates hot.  Often times, when teams do look "hot," it's because the team they're playing isn't.  Are Red Sox fans running for the hills because Josh Beckett got lit up in his first outing of the year?  On the flip side, we know the Tigers are going to be one of the better American League teams, but are they that good to sweep a team like the Red Sox without so much as batting an eye?  The answer to both questions is...no.

What Twins fans need to realize is that things will come.  The offense will turn around and begin hitting the ball hard.  We've already seen evidence of Josh Willingham being able to drive the ball over the fence, and Justin Morneau has been making solid contact when bat has met ball.  We've seen some positive things from a couple of pitchers, namely Glen Perkins and a five-inning stretch from Nick Blackburn.  The defense has been a little shaky to start, which we all had hoped would be better.  But all-in-all, if people were expecting perfection out of the gates, they might want to re-evaluate their level of baseball knowledge.

The Twins will be fine.  We're not expecting a Division Title, are we?  We're just expecting them to be better than last year.  And that will be the case.

Has Cuddyer Hurt Himself By Waiting?

Free agent negotiations are strange thing sometimes.  On one hand, you have those players that decide to sign their deals right away, at the first sign of a suitable offer.  On the other hand, there are those that decide to play the waiting game, regardless of what offers are out on the table.  Neither way is right or wrong, in all reality.  They're just...different.

It's all a guessing game, when it comes down to it.  If you choose to sign immediately, without letting more offers come in, are you giving yourself a fair chance to make the most money you can?  Some might contend that signing right away equals signing too early, that the opportunity to consider other potentially greater offers is missed.  Some may also suggest that the first offer received may potentially be the best available, and consider it a smart decision to take it.  Yet others believe that letting all offers filter in, and giving yourself options is the best course of action.

In the case of Michael Cuddyer, the jury is still out.  Cuddyer received a 3-year, $24-$25 million contract offer from the Minnesota Twins a little over one week ago, thus far the only offer received, at least publicly.  Prior to that offer, there had been mild interest shown by a couple of teams, namely the Philadelphia Phillies and the Colorado Rockies, yet, neither have offered the right-handed outfielder a contract.

As the days went on, the Twins found themselves coming to a crossroads.  Do they hold out for Cuddyer to make a decision, hoping he elects to accept their offer and re-sign with the Twins?  Do they pursue other options in the outfield, assuming Cuddyer receives a better offer from another club?  Do they somehow find a way for both?

At first glance, it appears they may have chosen the second option.  On Thursday, they finalized a 3-year, $21 million deal with free agent outfielder Josh Willingham.  Willingham would be the right-handed outfield replacement for Cuddyer in the Twins' lineup if they are not able to re-sign the 11-year Twin.  Given the decision to trim the payroll in 2011, it doesn't seem as though re-signing Cuddyer would be an option anymore.

That being said, if the Twins are now out of the picture, where does that leave Cuddyer?  One week after the Twins made their offer, the Cuddyer camp is still awaiting that elusive "other" offer from one of the other interested teams.  Is this an instance of possibly waiting too long?  With Willingham signing for only $21 million for three years, has Cuddyer's value now been lowered in the eyes of other ball clubs?

Some people with knowledge of the Twins have suggested that maybe Cuddyer's decision to possibly sign elsewhere is not a money-based one.  The current direction of the team may also be a huge deciding factor for him.  Being 32, his drive to contend for a World Series Championship may be greater than any desire for a big contract.  If that's the case, then look for Cuddyer's decision to come much later, as contending teams put the final pieces of their puzzles together.  However, if the decision is primarily value and money based, then look for a team in the middle of the pack to snatch up Cuddyer to be a strong leader in their clubhouse.

One way or the other, we should know soon.