The Twins salvaged a split of their four-game series with the Yankees on Thursday night. If we're being honest with ourselves, I don't think there many Twins fans who wouldn't have been happy with that outcome going into the series, especially being that it was in New York. It was both the way they lost the two games, along with the pattern displayed throughout the series that is causing a great deal of uneasiness for fans, and quite possibly, for the team itself.
In the four-game series, the Twins scored a total of 22 runs. In their two wins, they demonstrated an ability to string together a few clutch two-out hits, and an ability to be able to put the ball out of the ballpark. Justin Morneau looked healthier than he has in almost two years, and showed signs that he may, in fact, be back. Josh Willingham continued to hit the ball well, extending his season-opening hitting streak to 12 games. And clutch hits from the likes of Jamey Carroll, Chris Parmelee, and Danny Valencia proved that not just the Big Three are capable of making contributions to the offense.
What's troubling is the fact that an average of 5.5 runs per game isn't enough to finish greater than .500. What's concerning is that despite better-than-average bullpen support over this four-game series, the Twins still gave up a total of 23 runs. And what's more concerning than that is that, of the 23 runs allowed, 18 were allowed by the Twins' starting pitchers. Yes, you would expect starters to give up more of the runs seeing as they supposedly pitch more innings in the game, but that wasn't the case here. Twins starters pitched a total of only 17 innings in the series, thanks to two abysmal performances by Francisco Liriano (2.1 innings) and Anthony Swarzak (2.2 innings).
Here are a few other numbers and ranks for the Twins' starters through 12 games of the 2012 season:
29th in Innings Pitched (61.33). MLB Leader = Oakland (83.33). MLB Avg = 72.94
29th in Hits/9 Innings (10.71). MLB Leader = Washington (5.62). MLB Avg = 8.55
28th in ERA (5.87). MLB Leader = Washington (1.65). MLB Avg = 4.02
28th in K's/9 Innings (4.70). MLB Leader = New York Yankees (8.91). MLB Avg = 6.83
What does this mean for the Twins going forward?
The obvious answer is that it means the starting pitching effort has to get better in order to achieve some success this season. Without starters being able to get themselves into the mid-to-late innings consistently, it will spell doom for an untested bullpen. Thus far, the bullpen has performed much better than expected, all things considered.
What's not so obvious is the potential strain on the overall morale of the team if the starting staff isn't able to hold up its end of the bargain.
Last season, although frustrating, it was difficult for the Twins pitching staff to be upset about the level of offensive production shown by the lineup, mixed and matched throughout the year due to injury upon injury to the club's bigger weapons. They had to go out and just try to keep the team in it, hopefully by throwing six or seven innings, giving up only two or three runs, and giving the injury-riddled lineup a chance to sneak out enough hits and runs to pull out the victory.
This season, however, will test the patience of the offense. As displayed during the series with the Yankees, the Twins' lineup is capable of putting up some decent numbers this season. They scored six runs in three of the four games, winning two of them. Definitely an improvement from last year, if we're projecting that success out through the rest of 2012.
But how many times this year will this team put up five, six, or even seven runs, only to have the starting rotation allow teams right back into the game by surrendering four or five runs themselves in as many innings? With the MLB average of runs per game sitting around 4.3, you would expect that five, six, or seven runs would be plenty sufficient to win. But, with the Twins staff giving up an average of 5.5 runs per game, that will prove to be very straining on the team, both in the standings, and in the clubhouse.
The Twins offense, especially some of the younger players, could begin to feel some animosity toward the pitching staff, particularly the starters, if they feel like they're not pulling their weight. Pay attention to this trend throughout the year. If it continues, you could see this Twins team that we've come to know and love, become something we never expected.
***UPDATED***
I started writing this Friday morning, prior to Friday's game against the Rays. Liam Hendriks pitched a 5.2 innings, giving up only one run through 5, before loading the bases in the sixth, and giving up a go-ahead 2-run homer to Evan Longoria. All-in-all, Hendriks allowed only 4 runs, and pitched solidly for most of his outing.
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