It's Time To Change It Up A Bit, Ron!

If you've been reading "The Sporting Mind" since I started blogging back in May, you know that I tend to not hold anything back with regard to the Twins.  There isn't a team I root for more in sports than the Twins.  I consider myself a die-hard fan.  The great thing about being a fan is that you're entitled to opinions.

Opinions can be about anything, really.  They can be about individual players or they can be about individual plays.  They can be about aspects of the team, or just aspects of the game itself.  Regardless of what the opinion is, we as fans are entitled to those opinions.  They may not be right, they may not be wrong, but what they are is our voice.

As with anyone who follows a team, you have players you really like and some you just don't.  If you've been reading this blog for a while now, you know that I was never a huge Delmon Young fan, and I'm definitely not pro-Tsuyoshi Nishioka.  I've been very hard on the likes of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, but have been very complimentary toward both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel.  That being said, just because I might take issue with players like Mauer and Morneau doesn't mean I don't think either are good ball players, so let me be perfectly clear on that.

Now that I've gotten that out of the way...

As I watch the Twins' season quickly unravel, I start to wonder what the game plan actually is for these next six weeks.  The team has been so ravaged by injuries that it's been difficult to get a good grasp on what they actually have going forward.  Assuming the news on Monday that the Twins had placed both Kubel and Jim Thome on waivers means that neither will be back with the team next year, and assuming the Twins might not get anyone Major League ready in return should both be dealt, what do they have in store for DH and right field?  With Nick Blackburn hitting the disabled list on Monday as well, who might they give an opportunity to replace him in the rotation?  And, with the inconsistent play up the middle, might there be other options to fiddle with to try and put the pieces together to make a run next season?

It would be very difficult to get answers to all of these questions in just a few weeks.  Realistically, the team has no chance to climb back into the divisional race, which should provide Ron Gardenhire a unique opportunity to experiment a bit with what he does have.  As with any company, sometimes it's not so much about the personnel one has, but more about how that personnel is used and where that personnel is placed in order to get the most success from that individual.

So far this season, we've seen Cuddyer playing right field, first base, second base, and even pitch.  We've seen Mauer take his first ground balls at first base, as well as his first fly balls in right field.  Alexi Casilla made the move from short stop to second base, and Nishioka the reverse.  These are the types of alternatives Gardenhire needs to continue exploring.  Would Mauer potentially be able to play third base in the event he doesn't catch and Morneau is in the lineup at first?  Does Danny Valencia have the necessary range to be a short stop?  Might be worth a look.

Another thought would be to juggle the lineup a bit.  Looking through all of baseball, it's clear that the major run producers throughout the league find themselves hitting third, fourth, or fifth in their team's lineup.  Typically, these spots in the order are reserved for the big guns, the guys that hit the ball out of the park and drive in runs.  With the Twins, however, this isn't always the case.  Without taking away too much from Joe Mauer, it's evident that he is one of the best contact hitters in all of baseball.  Unfortunately for Twins fans, it appears both Mauer and the team are content with a high average, but little "production".  This isn't the type of hitter that belongs in the number three spot in the batting order.  Again, that's not to say he isn't a great hitter, just not a great hitter for that spot in the order.

Looking at Mauer's numbers this season, and understanding that he was hurt early on, it is a concern going forward, at least for this Twins fan.  If you compare the number of extra-base hits Mauer has and the frequency in which he has them to other hitters batting third in their respective lineups, you would see that he falls way behind the average.  Joe slugs something other than a single once in every 17.86 at-bats.  The top 20 run-producers (RBI's) in the American League average an extra-base hit once every 8.63 at-bats.  Seven (7) of those top 20 hit from the third spot in their lineup.  Those same 20 guys also average an RBI every 5.50 at-bats.  Mauer's average?  One RBI every 10.42 at-bats.  A high batting average is great, but it doesn't always translate to runs if the majority of those hits are singles.

Taking those numbers into account, it might be worth an extended five-week look for Gardenhire to see what either Cuddyer (an RBI every 6.9 at-bats) or Kubel (one in every 6.62 at-bats) could do in that number three spot in the order, and perhaps move Mauer down to either the fifth or sixth spot in the batting order.  If Denard Span is able to come back this year, and the Twins decide to play both Span and Ben Revere in the outfield, and bat the two of them first and second in the order, having either Cuddyer or Kubel hitting third might be a better thing, given their ability to hit more extra-base hits than Mauer.  If Span and/or Revere get on base with a single, it's difficult for them to score on a Mauer single, which has been the tendency for Joe this season, which explains his minimal 25 RBI output thus far.

So, let me hear from a few of you out there.  What are some other "experiments" you believe the Twins should try over the next few weeks to try and prepare themselves for an offseason of change?

Stay Positive, Just Don't Get Your Hopes Up

It's pretty hard to stay upbeat when you're 13 games under .500 and nine and half games out of first place in the division, but getting too negative and uptight isn't good for anybody.

With what we've seen over the last three weeks from the Twins, there's seemingly been very little to be positive about.  Sure, they've started to get some of their injured players back (Span, Kubel), which is a plus.  Sure, they're closer is back in the saddle again, and throwing almost like he did before having Tommy John surgery.  But, there's nothing really positive about a team that considers itself a perpetual contender, to go over three weeks without winning a series against some of the better competition in the American League.

You'd be hard-pressed to find a more up and down Twins season than this 2011 campaign.  Most of troubles have been due to numerous injuries, which have ravaged the team.  The struggles, however, can't all be blamed on the injury bug.  Even with some of their bigger stars on the shelf, the Twins had players who'd had major league experience filling in.  They may not have been the most talented players, but guys like Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe, and Drew Butera have all seen fairly significant time in the big leagues.  If we're honest about it though, the utilization of those players isn't totally to blame, either.

When a team is struggling at the plate, and is having a hard time getting runs on the board, it's absolutely vital that pitching keep them afloat.  Therin lies the key to the 2011 debacle.  With inconsistency in the starting rotation, a bullpen that couldn't maintain the minimal leads the offense was giving them, and a closer in Matt Capps whose fastball rivals that of some of the kids pitching in the Little League World Series this month, it's no wonder the Twins found themselves looking up at the rest of the American League Central.

The offensive struggles have come primarily from three sources: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Joe Mauer, and Delmon Young.  Since returning from his leg injury, Nishioka has struggled mightily at the plate, proving that the Twins may have made a mistake, not just in signing him, but in not pursuing that which they already had in J.J. Hardy.  So far, Hardy is hitting .275 with 21 HR and 40 extra-base hits.  He currently has more extra-base hits than the primary Twins middle infield (Nishioka and Casilla) combined.  Hardy is making $5.85 million this year, with Nishioka making only $3 million, however, if you count the $5.4 million bid the Twins spent to just speak to Nishi, they're into him for over $8 million this year.  Hardy seems like the better investment at this point, wouldn't you say?

Mauer and Young have vastly underperformed this year.  Mauer is riding the injury excuse, at least for another couple of weeks, but with Young, what you see is truly what you get.  Both players were handled poorly during the offseason, with the Twins needing to take more of a hands-on approach with Mauer's rehab, and also a more aggressive approach trying to find a better home for Mr. Young.  The result has been a combined 5 HR's and only 30 extra-base hits.  And remember, J.J. Hardy has 40 himself.  I'm not sayin'...I'm just sayin'.

All is not lost, however.  The Twins do have some positive things to take from this season thus far.  Michael Cuddyer has shown this team that he truly does have the heart to be the team's leader, on and off the field.  Jim Thome is on the verge of making history with his 600th home run, which couldn't happen to a better guy.  Jason Kubel has emerged as the Twins' best overall hitter, hitting for both average and power.  Danny Valencia has shown some of the pop in his bat that the Twins expected when they called him up last year, sitting second on the team with 12 HR's.  Ben Revere came up and proved himself to be a tremendous fielding outfielder, albeit with a tremendously weak throwing arm.  And Glen Perkins has seemingly found himself a suitable role as the set-up man for Joe Nathan.

All of these things are very positive, and should be looked at as such.  If the starters can improve their performances, and the veteran hitters like Mauer and Young can help to produce a few more runs, coupled with the positives mentioned...there's no reason the Twins can't still make a run for the division crown.

I just wouldn't hold my breath.

Twins Need To Admit Mistake And Move On

At the start of the 2011 season, there was a great deal of hype around the Twins' new second baseman.  He was a former batting champion, a gold glove winner, and was thought to be an incredible partner in crime for Alexi Casilla up the middle of the Twins' infield.

There was only one problem:  He hadn't played a single game in Major League Baseball.

The Twins signed Tsuyoshi Nishioka to a three year, $9.25 million contract to solidify the middle of the infield and the top of the batting order.  "Nishi" won the batting title in the Nippon Professional league in 2010 with a .364 average.  His ability to hit for contact, coupled with his speed, were great attributes the Twins were very excited about.

Unfortunately, although his first season with the Twins is only two-thirds of the way completed, it appears that the experiment thus far has been a complete failure.  Granted, Nishioka landed on the disabled list after only seven games after breaking his leg trying to turn a double play against the New York Yankees, but his overall performance thus far, both at the plate and in the field, has been sub-par at best.

There's no question that there is a huge difference in the game between the Nippon Professional League and that of Major League Baseball.  There has to be some type of learning curve, you'd think.

Looking at both past and present Japanese players who've made the transition to Major League Baseball, it's clear that Nishioka has fallen way behind that curve.  Projecting the rest of his 2011 season out, he will finish with the following line:

96 G, .209 Avg, 0 HRs, 28 RBI's, 4 SB's, 70 SO's, and 16 E's.

Excluding the likes of Ichiro Suzuki and Hideki Matsui, both of which had sensational debuts in their first full seasons, Nishioka has fallen far behind the numbers put forth by other comparable Japanese imports.  Take a look at the debuts of the Japanese position players who've made the transition to Major League Baseball.

Player                       Team       First Yr   Games   Avg   HR   RBI   SB
Tsuyoshi Shinjo       Mets           2001      123    .268     10      56      4
So Taguchi              Cardinals    2004      109    .291      3      25      6
Kaz Matsui              Mets           2004      114    .272      7      44      14
Tadahito Iguchi       White Sox  2005       135    .278     15     71      15
Norihiro Nakamura  Dodgers     2005       17     .128      0       3        0
Akinori Iwamura      Rays          2007      123    .285      7      34      12
Ichiro Suzuki            Mariners    2001      157    .350      8      69      56
Hideki Matsui          Yankees     2003       163    .287     16    106     2
Kosuke Fukudome    Cubs         2008       150    .257     10     58     12



When you look at these numbers, it's obvious that Nishioka appears very overmatched at the Major League level.  Aside from Norihiro Najamura in 2005, who was optioned to Triple-A by the Dodgers after only 17 games, and never played again in MLB, all other Japanese players have had what could be considered successful Major League debuts.  In the case of So Taguchi, it took three seasons for the Cardinals to give him a full-time shot at the big league level.

Many people have stated that we ought to give Nishioka a little break, that he needs time to adapt to the American-style.  There have been suggestions that he's struggling with the American strike zone, and with American umpires.  After breaking his leg, there was some thought that this gave the Twins the best opportunity possible to give him some extended time in Triple-A to hone his skills to the American game.

Sadly, these things not only haven't happened, but don't appear to be happening any time soon.  With every game, Nishioka appears to be more uncomfortable at the plate.  Twins broadcasters at one point even mentioned that in Japan, they "don't call many third strikes," which would explain why he's striking out looking as often as he is.  Regardless, he's apparent inability to adapt to the American game has only helped to negatively impact an already anemic-at-times offense.  Based on his numbers in Japan, the Twins had hoped to utilize his impressive speed on the base paths.  The only problem is that, they can't seem to find a way for him to get on base to put that speed to use.

Right now, with the Twins still hanging on to their playoff hopes by a very thin thread, it seems almost detrimental to the club to have Nishioka working through his apparent discomfort at the major league level.  Obviously, the recent hamstring injury to Alexi Casilla which has landed him on the DL has forced the Twins' hand yet again, but it may still be better for both Nishioka and the club if they perhaps option him to Triple-A to gain some confidence with the American game.  Looking at the alternatives, given Nishioka's current numbers, allowing someone like Trevor Plouffe another shot might be more beneficial.  With the Twins standing pat at the non-waiver trade deadline, it may also me something for the team to consider in possibly trying to offload the salary of someone like Kevin Slowey ($2.7 million) or Delmon Young ($5.375 million) in exchange for a veteran middle infielder, even if that player would only be with the team through the 2011 season.

If the Twins don't admit to themselves that their experiment with Nishioka is on the verge of being a complete failure, then it actually will be.  If they choose to swallow their collective pride and give the young man a chance to improve his confidence at the plate by giving him some reps in Rochester, then 2012 could be the Year of the Nishi!