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Wednesday, August 10, 2011

Stay Positive, Just Don't Get Your Hopes Up

It's pretty hard to stay upbeat when you're 13 games under .500 and nine and half games out of first place in the division, but getting too negative and uptight isn't good for anybody.

With what we've seen over the last three weeks from the Twins, there's seemingly been very little to be positive about.  Sure, they've started to get some of their injured players back (Span, Kubel), which is a plus.  Sure, they're closer is back in the saddle again, and throwing almost like he did before having Tommy John surgery.  But, there's nothing really positive about a team that considers itself a perpetual contender, to go over three weeks without winning a series against some of the better competition in the American League.

You'd be hard-pressed to find a more up and down Twins season than this 2011 campaign.  Most of troubles have been due to numerous injuries, which have ravaged the team.  The struggles, however, can't all be blamed on the injury bug.  Even with some of their bigger stars on the shelf, the Twins had players who'd had major league experience filling in.  They may not have been the most talented players, but guys like Matt Tolbert, Trevor Plouffe, and Drew Butera have all seen fairly significant time in the big leagues.  If we're honest about it though, the utilization of those players isn't totally to blame, either.

When a team is struggling at the plate, and is having a hard time getting runs on the board, it's absolutely vital that pitching keep them afloat.  Therin lies the key to the 2011 debacle.  With inconsistency in the starting rotation, a bullpen that couldn't maintain the minimal leads the offense was giving them, and a closer in Matt Capps whose fastball rivals that of some of the kids pitching in the Little League World Series this month, it's no wonder the Twins found themselves looking up at the rest of the American League Central.

The offensive struggles have come primarily from three sources: Tsuyoshi Nishioka, Joe Mauer, and Delmon Young.  Since returning from his leg injury, Nishioka has struggled mightily at the plate, proving that the Twins may have made a mistake, not just in signing him, but in not pursuing that which they already had in J.J. Hardy.  So far, Hardy is hitting .275 with 21 HR and 40 extra-base hits.  He currently has more extra-base hits than the primary Twins middle infield (Nishioka and Casilla) combined.  Hardy is making $5.85 million this year, with Nishioka making only $3 million, however, if you count the $5.4 million bid the Twins spent to just speak to Nishi, they're into him for over $8 million this year.  Hardy seems like the better investment at this point, wouldn't you say?

Mauer and Young have vastly underperformed this year.  Mauer is riding the injury excuse, at least for another couple of weeks, but with Young, what you see is truly what you get.  Both players were handled poorly during the offseason, with the Twins needing to take more of a hands-on approach with Mauer's rehab, and also a more aggressive approach trying to find a better home for Mr. Young.  The result has been a combined 5 HR's and only 30 extra-base hits.  And remember, J.J. Hardy has 40 himself.  I'm not sayin'...I'm just sayin'.

All is not lost, however.  The Twins do have some positive things to take from this season thus far.  Michael Cuddyer has shown this team that he truly does have the heart to be the team's leader, on and off the field.  Jim Thome is on the verge of making history with his 600th home run, which couldn't happen to a better guy.  Jason Kubel has emerged as the Twins' best overall hitter, hitting for both average and power.  Danny Valencia has shown some of the pop in his bat that the Twins expected when they called him up last year, sitting second on the team with 12 HR's.  Ben Revere came up and proved himself to be a tremendous fielding outfielder, albeit with a tremendously weak throwing arm.  And Glen Perkins has seemingly found himself a suitable role as the set-up man for Joe Nathan.

All of these things are very positive, and should be looked at as such.  If the starters can improve their performances, and the veteran hitters like Mauer and Young can help to produce a few more runs, coupled with the positives mentioned...there's no reason the Twins can't still make a run for the division crown.

I just wouldn't hold my breath.

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