With the Twins deciding to renew the contract of manager Ron Gardenhire for another two years through the 2015 season, many Twins fans have expressed a lot of negative feelings toward the decision. Based on the recent track record of the club, those negative feelings are more than justified.
In an era of "What Have You Done For Me Lately?", the Twins front office has decided to make Memory Lane their permanent home. After three consecutive 96-loss seasons, what fans receive as an explanation for why the current coaching regime remains in tact is nothing short of a campfire story about how good the team was between 2003-2010. Unfortunately, reputation alone doesn't win ball games.
Ron Gardenhire may be the nicest guy around. He may be the best "players' coach" in the game. In fact, he still may be one of the best managers in all of Major League Baseball. But not for this team. Not anymore. In order to succeed in the future, you can't rely on the successes of the past.
The role of the manager can be both undervalued and overhyped at the same time. The sad fact is, managers often take the heat for the failures of a ball club, even if it's not necessarily their fault. Many believed that the 2012 demise of the Boston Red Sox wasn't Terry Francona's doing, but rather that his players quit on him. The same could be said for countless other managers who lost their jobs over the years. But, regardless of the sport, there does come a time where, no matter how nice a guy, and no matter what the past has brought, that a manager or coach's message becomes stale and lost.
To many Twins fans, that time was after 2012. The Twins' front office, however, has a different opinion.
On Monday, while Gardenhire was being notified of his two-year extension, another manager was being given his walking papers. Dale Sveum, the first-time manager for the Chicago Cubs, was fired after two seasons, in which he went 61-101 in 2012, followed by a 66-96 campaign in 2013. Two seasons. That's all it took for the Cubs to pull the trigger. Now, it's understandable to say that Sveum doesn't have near the track record that Gardenhire has with the Twins. But that is really where the comparison should stop.
For the last three seasons, Twins fans have been force-fed the excuse that Gardenhire "hasn't had much to work with." That statement should be an indictment on both the General Manager as well as the Owner, but instead, by most accounts, the Pohlad Family and Terry Ryan are given a pass by most members of the media. Not all...but most. The players Gardenhire "has to work with" are players drafted and/or signed by Ryan and the ownership. These are young, "talented" players we were told a couple of years ago would be the future of this Twins franchise. Players like Aaron Hicks. Players like Chris Parmalee. Players like Kyle Gibson. Now, the sample size for the likes of Hicks and Gibson are only a small portion of the 2013 season, but these were guys we were told would help bring this team to prominence again.
One of the reasons given for the Cubs making the decision to fire Sveum as their manager was that they felt that he hadn't developed their young talent the way they'd expected. Couldn't that very same thing be said for Gardenhire? Now, I have not heard this suggested by anyone else, but I personally feel that Gardenhire is solely responsible for stunting the growth of Aaron Hicks.
How, you ask?
I have absolutely no problem with the Twins bringing Hicks up to start the season on the big-league club. I have no issues making him the starting center fielder, even though he skipped right over Triple-A. Where my issue lies is that an experienced manager, a manager who is touted as one of the best in baseball, should have realized that beginning the season with Hicks as your lead-off hitter, with no real experience against Major League pitching, was something that could mentally hamper the young man from Day 1. In his first 10 games, Hicks was 2 for 43 at the plate, striking out 20 times during that stretch. Something as subtle and simple as positioning someone in the lineup is not something that can be blamed on the player, nor can it be blamed on the GM or the Owner. That falls on the manager.
Had Gardenhire done the responsible managerial thing, he would have started the season with someone more equipped to possibly lead off. Someone like Brian Dozier, whom Gardenhire eventually put into the lead-off spot later on, and watched him flourish. But for 10 games, Hicks struggled, trying to impress out of the gates, when he may have been more comfortable hitting in the bottom third of the order. This seems like a logical thought, but one that seemed to have eluded the manager. There are no doubt other examples.
It could also be debated whether or not Sveum had even less with the Cubs to work with than Gardenhire had with the Twins. But, regardless of the tools in his toolbox, Sveum was let go, while the Twins front office continues to make excuses for their fledgling manager. But as I've said many times, it's important to note that, if you're going to place most, if not all, of the blame on the roster for three straight 96+ loss seasons, then the roster is what brought the Twins to the playoffs six times in nine seasons from 2002 through 2010. But, we don't hear that. We always hear what a great job Gardy has done with this team. We heard during his first few seasons as manager, what a terrific job he did given the payroll he was given. How are the last three seasons any different. One word: Reputation.
As I stated earlier, the manager's role isn't a glorious one most of the time. People continue to say that "Gardy isn't the problem," or that "manager's are overrated." If the latter is truly the case, then why not make a change? Even if he's not the problem, but the role itself is overrated, what harm would it do to bring a new voice into the clubhouse? It's worked for many other teams over the years. Why should the Twins be any different, or be the exception to this rule?
Showing posts with label Minnesota Twins. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Minnesota Twins. Show all posts
Thursday, October 3, 2013
Wednesday, July 31, 2013
Twins Miss Another Opportunity To Be Smart At The Trade Deadline
Simply put, the Minnesota Twins dropped the ball.
If you believe that statement refers the fact that the Twins pulled the trigger on only one deal at the Trade Deadline involving Drew Butera, you could possibly be right. If you believe that statement refers to the fact that Justin Morneau wasn't traded at the deadline, you could also possibly be right. However, if you believe that statement refers to the fact that Morneau began the 2013 season WITH the Twins, and wasn't traded during the offseason, you absolutely would be correct!
As the clock ticked down to the 4pm Eastern deadline for non-waiver trades, there was speculation the Twins would deal Morneau, but no trade was finalized. Many in the Twins' media brigade attributed this to the lack of a market for the first baseman. In fact, a few concluded that Morneau's rankings among all Major League first basemen were simply just too low to warrant any substantial value in return. The only thing they all seemed to miss was that, frankly, any deal for Morneau shouldn't have been made at the Trade Deadline, but rather during this past offseason.
Surely, if you look at the numbers, many "experts" were correct. Morneau's numbers simply don't justify much for trade value. There were plenty of teams looking for a bat at the deadline, but few looking to offer up what the Twins were more than likely asking for. But therein lies the problem. The Twins waited far too long to ask for the level of talent they were looking for should they decide to deal Morneau. And, as a result, with visions of Delmon Young in their heads, they missed yet another opportunity to trade a player at their peak value.
After suffering the concussion he did during the 2010 season, it was almost an absolute certainty that Morneau would never again be the same player. With concussions being as prominent in sports as they are today, it truly is difficult to gauge who has come back from them successfully and who has not. Sure, there may have been players in the '70s, '80s, and '90s that suffered concussions and found themselves playing again, probably because they didn't realize what actually happened. But in today's game, there is a much bigger spotlight on them.
If the Terry Ryan were as intelligent a general manager as many Minnesota sports writers believe him to be, he would've realized that we, no doubt, would never see Morneau regain the same form that led him to the 2006 American League MVP. Taking that into account, the moment Morneau began to even resemble a glimpse of his former self, he should've been shopped to potential suiters immediately! That point was after his first full injury-free season since the concussion, which was his 2012 campaign. Knowing a contract would be looming after the 2013 season, Ryan never should have entered this year holding out hope that Morneau would once again become an MVP threat. Instead, he should have attempted to bolster the Twins' already poor pitching staff by finding a taker for Morneau, who at the end of last season ranked 16th in Avg, 13th in OBP, 18th in SLG, 19th in HR, and 16th in RBI among all Major League first basemen. Instead...by not pulling the trigger during the offseason, Ryan went into the Trade Deadline fielding calls about Morneau, who entering the morning of July 31st ranked 13th in Avg, 19th in OBP, 24th in SLG, 29th in HR, and 14th in RBI among first basemen. And to make matters more difficult, he was no doubt trying to trade the 2006 MVP, and not the 2013 shadow of that MVP.
All told, the Twins stand pat at the deadline with their current Major League roster, not addressing any needs, and putting themselves in a position to now have to negotiate a deal with Morneau come the 2013 offseason. Given their current rebuilding mindset, Morneau should've been dealt, if for no other reason than to give his playing time to a younger, up-and-coming potential replacement at first base, whoever that may have been. Instead, Twins fans will have to watch their "power-hitting" first baseman struggle to reach 15 HRs during the final two months of the regular season.
If you believe that statement refers the fact that the Twins pulled the trigger on only one deal at the Trade Deadline involving Drew Butera, you could possibly be right. If you believe that statement refers to the fact that Justin Morneau wasn't traded at the deadline, you could also possibly be right. However, if you believe that statement refers to the fact that Morneau began the 2013 season WITH the Twins, and wasn't traded during the offseason, you absolutely would be correct!
As the clock ticked down to the 4pm Eastern deadline for non-waiver trades, there was speculation the Twins would deal Morneau, but no trade was finalized. Many in the Twins' media brigade attributed this to the lack of a market for the first baseman. In fact, a few concluded that Morneau's rankings among all Major League first basemen were simply just too low to warrant any substantial value in return. The only thing they all seemed to miss was that, frankly, any deal for Morneau shouldn't have been made at the Trade Deadline, but rather during this past offseason.
Surely, if you look at the numbers, many "experts" were correct. Morneau's numbers simply don't justify much for trade value. There were plenty of teams looking for a bat at the deadline, but few looking to offer up what the Twins were more than likely asking for. But therein lies the problem. The Twins waited far too long to ask for the level of talent they were looking for should they decide to deal Morneau. And, as a result, with visions of Delmon Young in their heads, they missed yet another opportunity to trade a player at their peak value.
After suffering the concussion he did during the 2010 season, it was almost an absolute certainty that Morneau would never again be the same player. With concussions being as prominent in sports as they are today, it truly is difficult to gauge who has come back from them successfully and who has not. Sure, there may have been players in the '70s, '80s, and '90s that suffered concussions and found themselves playing again, probably because they didn't realize what actually happened. But in today's game, there is a much bigger spotlight on them.
If the Terry Ryan were as intelligent a general manager as many Minnesota sports writers believe him to be, he would've realized that we, no doubt, would never see Morneau regain the same form that led him to the 2006 American League MVP. Taking that into account, the moment Morneau began to even resemble a glimpse of his former self, he should've been shopped to potential suiters immediately! That point was after his first full injury-free season since the concussion, which was his 2012 campaign. Knowing a contract would be looming after the 2013 season, Ryan never should have entered this year holding out hope that Morneau would once again become an MVP threat. Instead, he should have attempted to bolster the Twins' already poor pitching staff by finding a taker for Morneau, who at the end of last season ranked 16th in Avg, 13th in OBP, 18th in SLG, 19th in HR, and 16th in RBI among all Major League first basemen. Instead...by not pulling the trigger during the offseason, Ryan went into the Trade Deadline fielding calls about Morneau, who entering the morning of July 31st ranked 13th in Avg, 19th in OBP, 24th in SLG, 29th in HR, and 14th in RBI among first basemen. And to make matters more difficult, he was no doubt trying to trade the 2006 MVP, and not the 2013 shadow of that MVP.
All told, the Twins stand pat at the deadline with their current Major League roster, not addressing any needs, and putting themselves in a position to now have to negotiate a deal with Morneau come the 2013 offseason. Given their current rebuilding mindset, Morneau should've been dealt, if for no other reason than to give his playing time to a younger, up-and-coming potential replacement at first base, whoever that may have been. Instead, Twins fans will have to watch their "power-hitting" first baseman struggle to reach 15 HRs during the final two months of the regular season.
Monday, May 7, 2012
For Twins, History Shows, A Change At The Top May Help
With the Twins starting 7-20 thus far in 2012, coming off a 99-loss season in 2011, many people, myself included, have been advocating for a change in leadership. I know I am in the minority on this, but I do believe the time has come for the Twins to explore a regime change in the dugout. Ron Gardenhire has run his course, and my fear is that if a change is not made, that course may continue to run the Twins further into a hole that may be very difficult to climb out of in the near future.
Saying that he needs to be relieved of his managerial duties is not to say that Ron Gardenhire is a bad person. It's also not to say that he hasn't done some very good things for this franchise. But often times a strong sense of loyalty from upper management is something that can hinder the future development of the organization.
Many "experts" have said that it would be unreasonable to call for Gardenhire's head, making the excuse that "he's only able to do so much with what he's given." Sadly, those "experts", in my opinion, are losing focus on exactly what it means to "manage" and "coach". Quite honestly, managers and coaches are paid to do what their titles imply. To pawn off a team's poor record and performance on the talent of the players ultimately implies that it really doesn't matter who is at the helm, if you don't have good players, you'll never succeed. Frankly, this is a cop out.
Recent history may show us that a change at the top may actually be what's needed to help move the organization into a new and better direction.
- In July of 2010, the Arizona Diamondbacks made a managerial change, firing manager A.J. Hinch after going 89-123 (.420) in a season and a half. That season, prior to being fired, Hinch amassed a 31-48 record (.392). Replacing Hinch in July was first-time manager Kirk Gibson. Thus far, in just about two seasons as Arizona's skipper, Gibson has turned the D-Backs around, leading them to a 142-132 record since being hired (.518), reaching the playoffs for the first time in 2011.
- May of 2009 brought an end to Clint Hurdle's tenure as manager of the Colorado Rockies. In Hurdle's final season and a half, he had a combined record of 92-116 (.442). Hurdle was replaced by new manager Jim Tracy on May 29th of 2009. At the time Tracy took over, the Rockies had a record of 18-28 (.391). By season's end, Tracy had completely turned the Rockies around, leading them to an improbable Wild Card run. Since taking over for Hurdle, Tracy's overall record with Colorado is 242-225 (.518).
- The end of the 2010 season saw the Milwaukee Brewers make a change, as they opted to not bring back incumbent manager Ken Macha, instead electing to go with Ron Roenicke. Macha managed only two seasons in Milwaukee, leaving with a combined record of 157-167 (.485). In his final season, Macha led the Brewers to a 77-85 record (.488). In Roenicke's first season at the Brewer's helm in 2011, the team finished 96-66 (.593) and lost to the St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Championship Series.
- Back in 2006, the Texas Rangers struggled with manager Buck Showalter leading the team. Showalter's final two seasons in Texas saw the Rangers win a total of 159 games while losing 165, a win percentage of .491. After that season, the Rangers let Showalter go, deciding to give Ron Washington his first opportunity to manage in the Big Leagues. Since taking over the managerial duties of the Rangers in 2007, Washington has put together an impressive resume, with a record of 445-393 (.531), and has seen his team reach back-to-back World Series.
Again, the idea of firing Gardenhire shouldn't be so much an indictment of his managing, but more an act to breathe life into the team, and hopefully bring forth a sense of urgency that appears to be lacking. One reason it may be lacking is the fact that it appears a sense of complacency has set in with the organization. By not making a change, it seems the organization is content placing blame upon the players for the current failures. In many cases, these are obviously players that the organization ultimately drafted and/or signed.
By drafting and signing these players, the Twins have shown them that they believe in what they can do. By placing blame on just the players, it's telling them that the organization doesn't care for their success.
There's a saying I believe fits this occasion, and it goes a little something like this:
If you can't change the people [players], then we need to change the people [manager and coaches].
Thursday, May 3, 2012
Twins Can't Have Cake And Eat It, Too
It's really about time for the niceties to disappear. It's about time for some feelings to be hurt. More importantly, the sooner you get your hands dirty, the sooner you can clean them off again.
These are all things the Twins' front office needs to think about in the coming days if they hope to retain any shred of dignity they have left. Otherwise, they risk losing more than just 100-plus games. They risk alienating a fan base yearning to fill seats in a new ballpark while enjoying a winning culture. They also risk tarnishing a reputation of being a model franchise in a small market, competing annually on a budget far less than their top tier competition.
As many have pointed out in the past, what this organization seems to pride itself on are things like competing, rather than winning. When push comes to shove, the Twins seem to be the ones being pushed, rather than being the ones doing the shoving.
For the greater good of the franchise, sacrifices need to be made. Accountability must be held, at all levels.
In business, when success isn't being had, it is more often than not the line-level employees who hear the ridicule, feel the pressure, and are ultimately blamed for failure. It is often easier to change the pieces than to change the message, or start over. But when a supervisor continues to change those pieces, and the results continue to be the same, at some point, upper management must decide whether it truly is the pieces, or if it's the message being handed down to those pieces.
In the case of the Twins, the pieces have been changed. Players have been brought in, and players have been dismissed. New players have been brought in, and still others have been dismissed. And the fact remains that the results continue to be the same.
It's time for the front office to change the messenger.
For years, we have heard from many within the organization, and many close to it, than Ron Gardenhire is a "players' manager". We've heard that he never gets too up, and he never gets too down. He's an even-keel kinda guy who takes the good with the bad. We've heard that players love to play for him.
Sadly, I don't believe that is still the case.
When success is prominent, as was the case in 2009 and 2010, we hear great things about the coaching staff, mostly from the beat writers, but also from some front office personnel. Case and point, 2010; the year Gardenhire was awarded the Manager of the Year Award. We heard about what a great job Gardy did managing this team. We heard about his ability to "put the puzzle together" and win. We heard that, when Justin Morneau goes down 82 games into the season, on pace to win his second MVP Award, Gardenhire "made the right move" filling the first base hole with Michael Cuddyer, despite the fact that there really wasn't another logical option at that point. We heard about the ability of Gardy and his staff (hitting coach Joe Vavra, and pitching coach Rick Anderson) to "get the most out of their guys." Guys like rookie Danny Valencia (.311, 7 HR, 40 RBI in 85 Games), Delmon Young (.298, 21 HR, 112 RBI), Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA), Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 201 K), and Kevin Slowey (13-6, 4.45 ERA).
On the flip side, over the last two seasons (2011 and thus far 2012), we've seen the Twins struggle more than at any time in recent memory, including the mid-to-late '90s. During those struggles, if we're being honest with ourselves, we haven't seen "accountability." What we've seen is subtle, quiet finger-pointing from those closest to the situation, from the coaching staff to the beat writers. We've been told things like: players aren't taking good at-bats, guys aren't getting into good positions out in the field, pitchers aren't throwing to their strengths, etc.
The question that should be asked is: If Gardenhire "made all the right moves" in 2010, and Anderson and Vavra were responsible for "getting the most out of their guys" during that season, why have the last two seasons been about the players' lack of discipline at the plate, or inability to focus on the mound, or the fact that the team was hit with a massive injury bug?
It appears evident that Gardenhire and his coaching staff truly feel that the players aren't performing up to the standards expected of them, rather than the fact that perhaps they have lost the ability to get those most out of those players. If even some of the players feel as though the full weight of this losing season is falling on their back, and that the coaching staff is unable to accept their part, then you've already lost them.
In order to show the players that it's not all their doing, the front office needs to show a bit of backbone. A change within the coaching staff must be made. That change, even if it is only one, will tell players that upper management doesn't feel like it's 100% your fault. It will also give players a fresh perspective and a new outlook on the way they approach each game.
At this point, failing to make that change just shows that you're not ready to get rid of some of the pleasantries, that you're still worried about hurting feelings, and frankly, that you'd rather have clean hands and a poor reputation, than dirty hands and optimistic future.
These are all things the Twins' front office needs to think about in the coming days if they hope to retain any shred of dignity they have left. Otherwise, they risk losing more than just 100-plus games. They risk alienating a fan base yearning to fill seats in a new ballpark while enjoying a winning culture. They also risk tarnishing a reputation of being a model franchise in a small market, competing annually on a budget far less than their top tier competition.
As many have pointed out in the past, what this organization seems to pride itself on are things like competing, rather than winning. When push comes to shove, the Twins seem to be the ones being pushed, rather than being the ones doing the shoving.
For the greater good of the franchise, sacrifices need to be made. Accountability must be held, at all levels.
In business, when success isn't being had, it is more often than not the line-level employees who hear the ridicule, feel the pressure, and are ultimately blamed for failure. It is often easier to change the pieces than to change the message, or start over. But when a supervisor continues to change those pieces, and the results continue to be the same, at some point, upper management must decide whether it truly is the pieces, or if it's the message being handed down to those pieces.
In the case of the Twins, the pieces have been changed. Players have been brought in, and players have been dismissed. New players have been brought in, and still others have been dismissed. And the fact remains that the results continue to be the same.
It's time for the front office to change the messenger.
For years, we have heard from many within the organization, and many close to it, than Ron Gardenhire is a "players' manager". We've heard that he never gets too up, and he never gets too down. He's an even-keel kinda guy who takes the good with the bad. We've heard that players love to play for him.
Sadly, I don't believe that is still the case.
When success is prominent, as was the case in 2009 and 2010, we hear great things about the coaching staff, mostly from the beat writers, but also from some front office personnel. Case and point, 2010; the year Gardenhire was awarded the Manager of the Year Award. We heard about what a great job Gardy did managing this team. We heard about his ability to "put the puzzle together" and win. We heard that, when Justin Morneau goes down 82 games into the season, on pace to win his second MVP Award, Gardenhire "made the right move" filling the first base hole with Michael Cuddyer, despite the fact that there really wasn't another logical option at that point. We heard about the ability of Gardy and his staff (hitting coach Joe Vavra, and pitching coach Rick Anderson) to "get the most out of their guys." Guys like rookie Danny Valencia (.311, 7 HR, 40 RBI in 85 Games), Delmon Young (.298, 21 HR, 112 RBI), Carl Pavano (17-11, 3.75 ERA), Francisco Liriano (14-10, 3.62 ERA, 201 K), and Kevin Slowey (13-6, 4.45 ERA).
On the flip side, over the last two seasons (2011 and thus far 2012), we've seen the Twins struggle more than at any time in recent memory, including the mid-to-late '90s. During those struggles, if we're being honest with ourselves, we haven't seen "accountability." What we've seen is subtle, quiet finger-pointing from those closest to the situation, from the coaching staff to the beat writers. We've been told things like: players aren't taking good at-bats, guys aren't getting into good positions out in the field, pitchers aren't throwing to their strengths, etc.
The question that should be asked is: If Gardenhire "made all the right moves" in 2010, and Anderson and Vavra were responsible for "getting the most out of their guys" during that season, why have the last two seasons been about the players' lack of discipline at the plate, or inability to focus on the mound, or the fact that the team was hit with a massive injury bug?
It appears evident that Gardenhire and his coaching staff truly feel that the players aren't performing up to the standards expected of them, rather than the fact that perhaps they have lost the ability to get those most out of those players. If even some of the players feel as though the full weight of this losing season is falling on their back, and that the coaching staff is unable to accept their part, then you've already lost them.
In order to show the players that it's not all their doing, the front office needs to show a bit of backbone. A change within the coaching staff must be made. That change, even if it is only one, will tell players that upper management doesn't feel like it's 100% your fault. It will also give players a fresh perspective and a new outlook on the way they approach each game.
At this point, failing to make that change just shows that you're not ready to get rid of some of the pleasantries, that you're still worried about hurting feelings, and frankly, that you'd rather have clean hands and a poor reputation, than dirty hands and optimistic future.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Plain And Simple: Twins Pitching Stinks
There really isn't any way to sugar-coat this anymore. The Twins need to find a way to pitch better, and it needs to happen immediately!
Entering Tuesday's game against the Red Sox, the Twins pitching staff has the highest batting average against (.292) in all of Major League Baseball. What does that imply? Frankly, it implies that the Twins' "pitch-to-contact" philosophy is surely working. Sadly, that type of game plan won't allow you to succeed in the professional game against professional hitters. If they haven't yet, the Twins need to realize this, and figure out a different approach.
The fact of the matter is...what was already a problematic area when last season ended, was not addressed before this season began. The Twins decided to rely on a rotation comprised of Scott Baker (career 4.15 ERA and .266 Opp BA), Carl Pavano (4.33 / .284), Nick Blackburn (4.56 / .294), and Francisco Liriano (4.35 / .250). The addition of Jason Marquis to the starting rotation was the only real change made by the Twins entering the season. Marquis is a great guy, and a serviceable starter, but he came into the season with a career ERA of 4.59 and an opponent's BA of .272. Not exactly someone you could count on to shut an opponent down.
Those numbers brought into this season by the starters (with the exception of Scott Baker, who is on the Disabled List) have done nothing but gone up, and will probably continue to go up further as the season progresses. The logic behind the Twins' "pitch-to-contact" philosophy is sound; allow batters to hit the ball and let our fielders make the plays. What baffles me is that the flaw in the logic seems lost on the Twins front office and coaching staff.
What happens when the other team doesn't actually hit the ball TO our fielders, but in places where they aren't?
The answer to that question is what you saw with the 2011 club, and what you are now seeing in the 2012 Twins. Excellent big league hitters are able to hit any type of big league pitching. Average big league hitters are usually able to hit average to above average pitching. Below average big league hitters can usually hit average pitching. What the Twins have is below average pitching, which basically means that all levels of big league hitters will be able to tee off, and thus, they have.
So far this season, excluding the opening series against Baltimore, Twins' opponents have increased their team's batting average in three of the five series. Texas increased its team BA from .257 entering the series with the Twins to .270 after it. New York raised their BA from .253 before playing the Twins, to .276 after the four-game series. So far, through the first two games of its series, Boston has raised its BA from .276 at the start of the series, to .291 after Tuesday night. Needless to say, the Twins pitching staff has been a welcome sight for teams looking to improve their offensive numbers.
When asked about his starters during his post-game interview following Tuesday's 11-2 drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox, manager Ron Gardenhire said, "We have to get them straightened out. We can't go out and buy people. We've gotta make this work. I can't rub a bottle and make people pop out. We have to make these guys work."
You're right, Ron, you can't just go out and buy people. That needed to happen six months ago. With that ball having been dropped, you now need to figure out how to make the best of the situation at hand. That's what great managers do.
It's put up or shut up time.
Entering Tuesday's game against the Red Sox, the Twins pitching staff has the highest batting average against (.292) in all of Major League Baseball. What does that imply? Frankly, it implies that the Twins' "pitch-to-contact" philosophy is surely working. Sadly, that type of game plan won't allow you to succeed in the professional game against professional hitters. If they haven't yet, the Twins need to realize this, and figure out a different approach.
The fact of the matter is...what was already a problematic area when last season ended, was not addressed before this season began. The Twins decided to rely on a rotation comprised of Scott Baker (career 4.15 ERA and .266 Opp BA), Carl Pavano (4.33 / .284), Nick Blackburn (4.56 / .294), and Francisco Liriano (4.35 / .250). The addition of Jason Marquis to the starting rotation was the only real change made by the Twins entering the season. Marquis is a great guy, and a serviceable starter, but he came into the season with a career ERA of 4.59 and an opponent's BA of .272. Not exactly someone you could count on to shut an opponent down.
Those numbers brought into this season by the starters (with the exception of Scott Baker, who is on the Disabled List) have done nothing but gone up, and will probably continue to go up further as the season progresses. The logic behind the Twins' "pitch-to-contact" philosophy is sound; allow batters to hit the ball and let our fielders make the plays. What baffles me is that the flaw in the logic seems lost on the Twins front office and coaching staff.
What happens when the other team doesn't actually hit the ball TO our fielders, but in places where they aren't?
The answer to that question is what you saw with the 2011 club, and what you are now seeing in the 2012 Twins. Excellent big league hitters are able to hit any type of big league pitching. Average big league hitters are usually able to hit average to above average pitching. Below average big league hitters can usually hit average pitching. What the Twins have is below average pitching, which basically means that all levels of big league hitters will be able to tee off, and thus, they have.
So far this season, excluding the opening series against Baltimore, Twins' opponents have increased their team's batting average in three of the five series. Texas increased its team BA from .257 entering the series with the Twins to .270 after it. New York raised their BA from .253 before playing the Twins, to .276 after the four-game series. So far, through the first two games of its series, Boston has raised its BA from .276 at the start of the series, to .291 after Tuesday night. Needless to say, the Twins pitching staff has been a welcome sight for teams looking to improve their offensive numbers.
When asked about his starters during his post-game interview following Tuesday's 11-2 drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox, manager Ron Gardenhire said, "We have to get them straightened out. We can't go out and buy people. We've gotta make this work. I can't rub a bottle and make people pop out. We have to make these guys work."
You're right, Ron, you can't just go out and buy people. That needed to happen six months ago. With that ball having been dropped, you now need to figure out how to make the best of the situation at hand. That's what great managers do.
It's put up or shut up time.
Friday, April 20, 2012
Poor Starting Pitching May Not Just Affect Record
The Twins salvaged a split of their four-game series with the Yankees on Thursday night. If we're being honest with ourselves, I don't think there many Twins fans who wouldn't have been happy with that outcome going into the series, especially being that it was in New York. It was both the way they lost the two games, along with the pattern displayed throughout the series that is causing a great deal of uneasiness for fans, and quite possibly, for the team itself.
In the four-game series, the Twins scored a total of 22 runs. In their two wins, they demonstrated an ability to string together a few clutch two-out hits, and an ability to be able to put the ball out of the ballpark. Justin Morneau looked healthier than he has in almost two years, and showed signs that he may, in fact, be back. Josh Willingham continued to hit the ball well, extending his season-opening hitting streak to 12 games. And clutch hits from the likes of Jamey Carroll, Chris Parmelee, and Danny Valencia proved that not just the Big Three are capable of making contributions to the offense.
What's troubling is the fact that an average of 5.5 runs per game isn't enough to finish greater than .500. What's concerning is that despite better-than-average bullpen support over this four-game series, the Twins still gave up a total of 23 runs. And what's more concerning than that is that, of the 23 runs allowed, 18 were allowed by the Twins' starting pitchers. Yes, you would expect starters to give up more of the runs seeing as they supposedly pitch more innings in the game, but that wasn't the case here. Twins starters pitched a total of only 17 innings in the series, thanks to two abysmal performances by Francisco Liriano (2.1 innings) and Anthony Swarzak (2.2 innings).
Here are a few other numbers and ranks for the Twins' starters through 12 games of the 2012 season:
29th in Innings Pitched (61.33). MLB Leader = Oakland (83.33). MLB Avg = 72.94
29th in Hits/9 Innings (10.71). MLB Leader = Washington (5.62). MLB Avg = 8.55
28th in ERA (5.87). MLB Leader = Washington (1.65). MLB Avg = 4.02
28th in K's/9 Innings (4.70). MLB Leader = New York Yankees (8.91). MLB Avg = 6.83
What does this mean for the Twins going forward?
The obvious answer is that it means the starting pitching effort has to get better in order to achieve some success this season. Without starters being able to get themselves into the mid-to-late innings consistently, it will spell doom for an untested bullpen. Thus far, the bullpen has performed much better than expected, all things considered.
What's not so obvious is the potential strain on the overall morale of the team if the starting staff isn't able to hold up its end of the bargain.
Last season, although frustrating, it was difficult for the Twins pitching staff to be upset about the level of offensive production shown by the lineup, mixed and matched throughout the year due to injury upon injury to the club's bigger weapons. They had to go out and just try to keep the team in it, hopefully by throwing six or seven innings, giving up only two or three runs, and giving the injury-riddled lineup a chance to sneak out enough hits and runs to pull out the victory.
This season, however, will test the patience of the offense. As displayed during the series with the Yankees, the Twins' lineup is capable of putting up some decent numbers this season. They scored six runs in three of the four games, winning two of them. Definitely an improvement from last year, if we're projecting that success out through the rest of 2012.
But how many times this year will this team put up five, six, or even seven runs, only to have the starting rotation allow teams right back into the game by surrendering four or five runs themselves in as many innings? With the MLB average of runs per game sitting around 4.3, you would expect that five, six, or seven runs would be plenty sufficient to win. But, with the Twins staff giving up an average of 5.5 runs per game, that will prove to be very straining on the team, both in the standings, and in the clubhouse.
The Twins offense, especially some of the younger players, could begin to feel some animosity toward the pitching staff, particularly the starters, if they feel like they're not pulling their weight. Pay attention to this trend throughout the year. If it continues, you could see this Twins team that we've come to know and love, become something we never expected.
***UPDATED***
I started writing this Friday morning, prior to Friday's game against the Rays. Liam Hendriks pitched a 5.2 innings, giving up only one run through 5, before loading the bases in the sixth, and giving up a go-ahead 2-run homer to Evan Longoria. All-in-all, Hendriks allowed only 4 runs, and pitched solidly for most of his outing.
In the four-game series, the Twins scored a total of 22 runs. In their two wins, they demonstrated an ability to string together a few clutch two-out hits, and an ability to be able to put the ball out of the ballpark. Justin Morneau looked healthier than he has in almost two years, and showed signs that he may, in fact, be back. Josh Willingham continued to hit the ball well, extending his season-opening hitting streak to 12 games. And clutch hits from the likes of Jamey Carroll, Chris Parmelee, and Danny Valencia proved that not just the Big Three are capable of making contributions to the offense.
What's troubling is the fact that an average of 5.5 runs per game isn't enough to finish greater than .500. What's concerning is that despite better-than-average bullpen support over this four-game series, the Twins still gave up a total of 23 runs. And what's more concerning than that is that, of the 23 runs allowed, 18 were allowed by the Twins' starting pitchers. Yes, you would expect starters to give up more of the runs seeing as they supposedly pitch more innings in the game, but that wasn't the case here. Twins starters pitched a total of only 17 innings in the series, thanks to two abysmal performances by Francisco Liriano (2.1 innings) and Anthony Swarzak (2.2 innings).
Here are a few other numbers and ranks for the Twins' starters through 12 games of the 2012 season:
29th in Innings Pitched (61.33). MLB Leader = Oakland (83.33). MLB Avg = 72.94
29th in Hits/9 Innings (10.71). MLB Leader = Washington (5.62). MLB Avg = 8.55
28th in ERA (5.87). MLB Leader = Washington (1.65). MLB Avg = 4.02
28th in K's/9 Innings (4.70). MLB Leader = New York Yankees (8.91). MLB Avg = 6.83
What does this mean for the Twins going forward?
The obvious answer is that it means the starting pitching effort has to get better in order to achieve some success this season. Without starters being able to get themselves into the mid-to-late innings consistently, it will spell doom for an untested bullpen. Thus far, the bullpen has performed much better than expected, all things considered.
What's not so obvious is the potential strain on the overall morale of the team if the starting staff isn't able to hold up its end of the bargain.
Last season, although frustrating, it was difficult for the Twins pitching staff to be upset about the level of offensive production shown by the lineup, mixed and matched throughout the year due to injury upon injury to the club's bigger weapons. They had to go out and just try to keep the team in it, hopefully by throwing six or seven innings, giving up only two or three runs, and giving the injury-riddled lineup a chance to sneak out enough hits and runs to pull out the victory.
This season, however, will test the patience of the offense. As displayed during the series with the Yankees, the Twins' lineup is capable of putting up some decent numbers this season. They scored six runs in three of the four games, winning two of them. Definitely an improvement from last year, if we're projecting that success out through the rest of 2012.
But how many times this year will this team put up five, six, or even seven runs, only to have the starting rotation allow teams right back into the game by surrendering four or five runs themselves in as many innings? With the MLB average of runs per game sitting around 4.3, you would expect that five, six, or seven runs would be plenty sufficient to win. But, with the Twins staff giving up an average of 5.5 runs per game, that will prove to be very straining on the team, both in the standings, and in the clubhouse.
The Twins offense, especially some of the younger players, could begin to feel some animosity toward the pitching staff, particularly the starters, if they feel like they're not pulling their weight. Pay attention to this trend throughout the year. If it continues, you could see this Twins team that we've come to know and love, become something we never expected.
***UPDATED***
I started writing this Friday morning, prior to Friday's game against the Rays. Liam Hendriks pitched a 5.2 innings, giving up only one run through 5, before loading the bases in the sixth, and giving up a go-ahead 2-run homer to Evan Longoria. All-in-all, Hendriks allowed only 4 runs, and pitched solidly for most of his outing.
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Is The "Twins Way" The Definition Of Insanity?
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
- Albert Einstein
Technically, Einstein's definition of the word insanity isn't actually correct, however, it does make one think about various situations from time to time. Whether it be for personal or professional reasons, many people actually ask themselves that question when they are not getting the results they're looking for.
Twins fans have been banging their heads against the wall throughout the first week of the 2012 season. Some have been optimistic about what lies ahead, while others are looking at this first week as a harbinger of things to come. But, are the Twins becoming the collective poster child for Einstein's famous definition? The evidence points to a resounding "yes."
The "Twins Way" is something all Twins fans have learned to accept over the last ten years. It started with the "Get To Know 'Em Boys" in the early 2000's and continued with the "Piranhas" a few years later. Those collections of players had distinctive identities. Fundamental play, timely hitting, and consistent hustle were traits those teams shared; traits this 2012 bunch appears (at least early on) to be lacking. So given what transpired last year, and what has been seen early this season, it truly appears this team might be headed down the same path it took in 2011 unless something changes.
That "something" isn't one thing in particular. In the offseason, everyone considers themselves a better General Manager than whomever is holding that title for the Twins, in this case, Terry Ryan. I, myself, am guilty of it, as many of you are. I still contend there was more that could've been done this past offseason with regard to bringing in players to plug a few key holes. Quite frankly, in my opinion, just because the Twins didn't spend their money wisely last year doesn't mean they shouldn't continue to spend money on talent; they just need to be wiser about how they spend it and who they spend it on. Regardless, the roster, at the moment, is what it is, and we know who the key players are. Unfortunately, the biggest issue this year appears to be depth within the pitching department, and that's something the team will have to continue battling through.
The "something" I referred to centers around the offense, and isn't just one thing, but perhaps a series of things. Things meant to potentially alter the insanity that currently is the 2012 Minnesota Twins.
- Switch Up The Batting Order
This is by no means an exact science, but perhaps changing up some of the roles in the lineup might do a few people some good. For starters, it's very evident by the fan reactions of late that the honeymoon period for Joe Mauer being the "Hometown Hero" may have run its course. Fans are expecting much, much more for Joe than they're seeing. Is it possible the responsibility to the team coupled with the expectations of the fans has become a bigger burden on Joe than he's able to take on right now batting third. Although Jamey Carroll has had a few good at-bats thus far, drawing six walks from the two hole, is it possible he might be better suited as the eighth place hitter? Might someone like Danny Valenica see better pitches hitting before Justin Morneau? The answer to all of these questions is...who knows. The point is, at what point does Ron Gardenhire decide to try something a little different in order to potentially get a different result?
My thought here is a simple one. When healthy, Denard Span has been one of the best lead-off hitters the Twins have had in recent memory, so he stays put at the top of the order. Move Carroll out of the second spot, and shift Mauer up. Now, Joe's responsibility has shifted from driving in runs to getting on base, thus allowing him to swing a little more freely. Over his career, speaking strictly percentage-wise, his numbers are better batting second than they are third.
So, with Joe now out of the third spot in the order, who slides in? This may get a few laughs, but I'm being completely serious when I say...Danny Valencia. Valencia has the ability to drive the ball and hit for a bit of power at times. Better yet, he's a right-handed bat separating Mauer and Morneau, which could prove to be potentially beneficial in later inning situations. Plus, anyone who has supervised or managed employees knows that sometimes, you have to empower unrealized talent in order for that talent to realize it in themselves. Give Valencia an opportunity to take the next step in his maturation process as a hitter and as a player.
Similar to Span at the top of the order, no changes need to be made to the four and five spots. If Josh Willingham continues to pound the ball as he has during the first week, Morneau will no doubt begin to see a few better pitches, and will begin to start hitting them hard again. After Willingham, I would move Chris Parmelee into the sixth spot in the order and drop Ryan Doumit to seventh, rounding out the bottom of the order with Carroll and Alexi Casilla. Here's what the lineup card would ultimately look like:
1. Denard Span, CF (L)
2. Joe Mauer, C (L)
3. Danny Valencia, 3B (R)
4. Justin Morneau, DH (L)
5. Josh Willingham, LF (R)
6. Chris Parmelee, 1B (L)
7. Ryan Doumit, RF (S)
8. Jamey Carroll, SS (R)
9. Alexi Casilla, 2B (S)
- Consistency Is Bliss
This one won't take long to explain. Through eight games of the 2012 season, Gardenhire has trotted out six different lineups. Knock on wood, but there are no injuries of any kind to any position players that we're aware of, yet the same lineup has not been brought out to home plate in two consecutive games thus far. Quite honestly, this high school mentality of "everyone needs to play" is a bit absurd at this level of ball. All nine guys I listed above in the ideal lineup should be coming to the ballpark each and every day EXPECTING to be in the starting lineup, regardless of who's on the mound for the opposition. Now, I understand getting guys a day off here and there, but there needs to be some consistency if this thing is ever going to gel.
- Make It Happen On The Bases
In their first eight games of this season, the Twins have stranded a total of 60 runners on base. If we're being realistic, it would've been more had the Twins been able to muster more than two hits in the finale against the Orioles. Ultimately, the offense is relying more on trying to advance runners by just moving station to station. In the past three seasons, the team has ranked no better than ninth in the American League in Stolen Bases, and no better than 18th in all of baseball. With their speed, there is really no reason both Denard Span and Alexi Casilla shouldn't steal at least 30 bases a season. Putting those runners in motion may bring a great deal of risk into the equation, but could also yield a hefty reward to a struggling offense. Think of it this way; the Twins are tied for the Major League lead having grounded into 11 double plays this season. They also lead baseball in the groundout to flyout ratio. If you decide no to straight steal them, utilizing the hit and run could get opposing fielders out of position and open a few holes in the infield. This was the type of hustle exhibited by the original Piranhas, and is something that could prove to be just what the doctor order this season.
Again, these suggestions are probably a little drastic, and maybe even unrealistic. However, there might be something even more unrealistic than my thoughts...
...The idea that Twins fans will continue to support this team if something...anything...doesn't change.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Four Games In Is Hardly Time To Overreact!
Let's be honest...
Had the Twins begun the 2012 season by winning two of their first four games, many fans would've considered that a positive.
Had someone told you the Twins would start the 2012 season 0-4, many fans would've probably said "Yea, that wouldn't surprise me."
Had the Twins jumped out to a 4-0 start on the year, many fans would probably be saying, "Yea, but it won't last. They're not really that good."
So, with the honesty out of the bag, why are Twins fans willing to pack the 2012 season in with 158 games left to play?
There's no doubt that the start of this season has been frustrating for fans. It's difficult to stay positive after what we witnessed last year, and what appears to be a mirror image through four games of this season. But to assume that this team won't turn things around sooner rather than later is a bit negative. And that's coming from someone who has had his share of negative opinions of this organization over the last couple of years.
For many teams and players, it's sometimes difficult to jump out of the gates hot. Often times, when teams do look "hot," it's because the team they're playing isn't. Are Red Sox fans running for the hills because Josh Beckett got lit up in his first outing of the year? On the flip side, we know the Tigers are going to be one of the better American League teams, but are they that good to sweep a team like the Red Sox without so much as batting an eye? The answer to both questions is...no.
What Twins fans need to realize is that things will come. The offense will turn around and begin hitting the ball hard. We've already seen evidence of Josh Willingham being able to drive the ball over the fence, and Justin Morneau has been making solid contact when bat has met ball. We've seen some positive things from a couple of pitchers, namely Glen Perkins and a five-inning stretch from Nick Blackburn. The defense has been a little shaky to start, which we all had hoped would be better. But all-in-all, if people were expecting perfection out of the gates, they might want to re-evaluate their level of baseball knowledge.
The Twins will be fine. We're not expecting a Division Title, are we? We're just expecting them to be better than last year. And that will be the case.
Had the Twins begun the 2012 season by winning two of their first four games, many fans would've considered that a positive.
Had someone told you the Twins would start the 2012 season 0-4, many fans would've probably said "Yea, that wouldn't surprise me."
Had the Twins jumped out to a 4-0 start on the year, many fans would probably be saying, "Yea, but it won't last. They're not really that good."
So, with the honesty out of the bag, why are Twins fans willing to pack the 2012 season in with 158 games left to play?
There's no doubt that the start of this season has been frustrating for fans. It's difficult to stay positive after what we witnessed last year, and what appears to be a mirror image through four games of this season. But to assume that this team won't turn things around sooner rather than later is a bit negative. And that's coming from someone who has had his share of negative opinions of this organization over the last couple of years.
For many teams and players, it's sometimes difficult to jump out of the gates hot. Often times, when teams do look "hot," it's because the team they're playing isn't. Are Red Sox fans running for the hills because Josh Beckett got lit up in his first outing of the year? On the flip side, we know the Tigers are going to be one of the better American League teams, but are they that good to sweep a team like the Red Sox without so much as batting an eye? The answer to both questions is...no.
What Twins fans need to realize is that things will come. The offense will turn around and begin hitting the ball hard. We've already seen evidence of Josh Willingham being able to drive the ball over the fence, and Justin Morneau has been making solid contact when bat has met ball. We've seen some positive things from a couple of pitchers, namely Glen Perkins and a five-inning stretch from Nick Blackburn. The defense has been a little shaky to start, which we all had hoped would be better. But all-in-all, if people were expecting perfection out of the gates, they might want to re-evaluate their level of baseball knowledge.
The Twins will be fine. We're not expecting a Division Title, are we? We're just expecting them to be better than last year. And that will be the case.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
"The Miz's" 2012 Minnesota Twins Predictions
There's really only one direction to go after a dismal 2011, right?
Coming off the franchise's worst season since 1982 (102 losses), there is a lot that Twins fans could feel optimistic about going into 2012. For starters, could it possibly get any worse than last year? Significant injuries to significant players, shaky defense from a typically solid fielding ball club, and sub-par pitching from...well, let's face it...a barely par staff, all led to a barely watchable season of baseball for fans of our local nine. One would hope, however, that the injuries, poor fielding, and inept pitching could not repeat themselves in 2012.
With Terry Ryan back in the saddle, Twins fans should at least be comforted with one thought: At least we'll be competitive, as most Terry Ryan-fielded teams are. The Twins may not win the division, but at least fans won't flock in droves to Stub-Hub to unload their tickets, as appeared to be the case in August and September of 2011.
Knowing that a major part of the Twins' success centers around health, getting through Spring Training appears to have been a major success, with the exception of Scott Baker. Baker has been hampered by elbow problems again this spring, which will keep him out of the rotation for a few weeks, especially given his setback on Thursday evening. Regardless, injuries occur, and are not often something that can be planned around. So, given that fact, for the sake of these predictions, we're going to assume 100% health, or at least what we know now going into the Season Opener against Baltimore on Friday.
1.) The Twins will raise their team run total from 619 runs in 2011 to 725 in 2012.
With the re-additions of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau into the lineup, coupled with the integration of Chris Parmelee as a full-time first baseman, the Twins will have a solid core of potentially high average hitters. Having two veterans in Denard Span and Jamey Carroll setting the table at the top of the lineup, the team should be able to sustain quite a few more longer-than-normal innings on the offensive end, which will lead to more run-scoring throughout the season. Because of the uncertainty with the pitching staff, however, this won't necessarily translate into more wins for the team. The offense won't be as anemic as 2011, which will no doubt help their cause, but don't be surprised to see the Twins lose a few more 8-7 and 10-9 games this year.
2.) Chris Parmelee will win American League Rookie of the Year.
This would be considered my "bold" prediction of the 2012 season. To be honest, I haven't been this excited for a Twins rookie in quite a long time. During the final few weeks of 2011, Parmelee showed he could no doubt hang with the big boys, if given the opportunity to play. Unfortunately, with Justin Morneau occupying first base, that didn't appear to be something that would happen any time soon. With Ron Gardenhire's decision to move Morneau permanently into the DH spot in 2012 (or at least for the foreseeable future), the path was paved for Parmelee to take the reigns at first base. For a young hitter, he has tremendous vision at the plate, can work the count deep, and can also deposit the ball over the fence. Look for this kid to garner a lot of attention from fans, and the baseball media alike, as the season progresses.
3.) Glen Perkins will become the team's closer by the end of May.
I really want this to be more of a reflection on Perkins' talent as a relief pitcher than a shot at Matt Capps, but unfortunately, that will be hard to justify. Capps will be the team's closer entering the regular season, and all signs should point to him rebounding from a difficult season in 2011, which saw him booed mercilessly by Twins fans. The fact of the matter is, regardless of how great a guy he is, or what he brings to the clubhouse, Capps' style of pitching will become more of a liability than an asset. With a mediocre fastball, and really no "go to" pitch to get hitters out, Capps has decided to bring a split-finger fastball into his repertoire. If, and when, this new pitch begins to falter, Capps will find himself going back to what he's been accustomed to, which is the fastball. As that happens, hitters will be ready, and Twins fans will find themselves pulling their hair out a couple of times in April and May. Perkins will be given the opportunity, and will run with it. By season's end, look for Perkins to have more saves than Capps.
4.) Francisco Liriano will set a career high with 18 wins.
We all know he has the talent. We all know he has the right stuff. It's just time for Frankie to believe it himself, and go out there with confidence. If his spring was any indication, it seems like he may just have figured it out. In 27 spring innings, Liriano had a 2.33 ERA, allowed only 27 hits, surrendered only 5 walks, and struck out 33. Obviously, the hitters one faces during a spring game are potentially much different than one might face in the regular season, so the hits and strikeouts could be a bit deceiving. The walks, however, are something that can be looked at with great excitement. What Liriano appears to have figured out is that the devastating slider he has (and yes, it is nasty) does not need to be thrown three or four times an at-bat. He's begun to realize that locating the fastball and getting ahead of hitters will allow him the ability to drop that slider in when it's actually needed. That type of control is exactly what he needs to be successful. As always with Liriano, only time will tell, but from the signs we're all seeing, this season looks like a promising one.
5.) The Twins will be relevant in the American League Central race through August.
OK, so, this one's a little vague. Having lost 99 games in 2011, many people around baseball, as well as many fans of the Twins locally, have already written the 2012 team off as being too similar to their 2011 predecessor. As I stated early on in this post, assuming they're not struck down by the injury bug once again, this team, although appearing similar, is actually different. The lineup, in my opinion, actually got stronger. With the additions of new left fielder Josh Willingham, and back-up catcher/right fielder Ryan Doumit, Parmelee at first base, and a healthy Mauer and Morneau, this Twins lineup should a.) hit for a higher average, b.) hit more home runs, and thus c.) drive in more runs than the 2011 club. Defensively, the Twins brought in Jamey Carroll to solidify the middle infield with Alexi Casilla. Again, injuries were a huge driving force behind the poor fielding seen during 2011, with many players playing positions they may not have been accustomed to. Lastly, if the pitching staff can keep the team in ballgames, (which obviously sounds very cliche, but true), the team will have a chance to win quite a few more games than last season. My second "bold" prediction is that your Minnesota Twins will actually improve their win total to 86 games (up from 63 in 2011). Unfortunately, 86 wins won't be enough to overtake Detroit in the division this season, although it will be much closer than people think. The Twins will, however, finish second in the AL Central, just ahead of the Cleveland Indians.
All told, the 2012 Minnesota Twins should be much more interesting to watch, be a much more exciting team to cheer for, and frankly, be more of a contending team than many are expecting.
Friday starts it off. As of now, it's a clean slate. 0-0. My prediction: 86-76, second in the American League Central.
Coming off the franchise's worst season since 1982 (102 losses), there is a lot that Twins fans could feel optimistic about going into 2012. For starters, could it possibly get any worse than last year? Significant injuries to significant players, shaky defense from a typically solid fielding ball club, and sub-par pitching from...well, let's face it...a barely par staff, all led to a barely watchable season of baseball for fans of our local nine. One would hope, however, that the injuries, poor fielding, and inept pitching could not repeat themselves in 2012.
With Terry Ryan back in the saddle, Twins fans should at least be comforted with one thought: At least we'll be competitive, as most Terry Ryan-fielded teams are. The Twins may not win the division, but at least fans won't flock in droves to Stub-Hub to unload their tickets, as appeared to be the case in August and September of 2011.
Knowing that a major part of the Twins' success centers around health, getting through Spring Training appears to have been a major success, with the exception of Scott Baker. Baker has been hampered by elbow problems again this spring, which will keep him out of the rotation for a few weeks, especially given his setback on Thursday evening. Regardless, injuries occur, and are not often something that can be planned around. So, given that fact, for the sake of these predictions, we're going to assume 100% health, or at least what we know now going into the Season Opener against Baltimore on Friday.
1.) The Twins will raise their team run total from 619 runs in 2011 to 725 in 2012.
With the re-additions of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau into the lineup, coupled with the integration of Chris Parmelee as a full-time first baseman, the Twins will have a solid core of potentially high average hitters. Having two veterans in Denard Span and Jamey Carroll setting the table at the top of the lineup, the team should be able to sustain quite a few more longer-than-normal innings on the offensive end, which will lead to more run-scoring throughout the season. Because of the uncertainty with the pitching staff, however, this won't necessarily translate into more wins for the team. The offense won't be as anemic as 2011, which will no doubt help their cause, but don't be surprised to see the Twins lose a few more 8-7 and 10-9 games this year.
2.) Chris Parmelee will win American League Rookie of the Year.
This would be considered my "bold" prediction of the 2012 season. To be honest, I haven't been this excited for a Twins rookie in quite a long time. During the final few weeks of 2011, Parmelee showed he could no doubt hang with the big boys, if given the opportunity to play. Unfortunately, with Justin Morneau occupying first base, that didn't appear to be something that would happen any time soon. With Ron Gardenhire's decision to move Morneau permanently into the DH spot in 2012 (or at least for the foreseeable future), the path was paved for Parmelee to take the reigns at first base. For a young hitter, he has tremendous vision at the plate, can work the count deep, and can also deposit the ball over the fence. Look for this kid to garner a lot of attention from fans, and the baseball media alike, as the season progresses.
3.) Glen Perkins will become the team's closer by the end of May.
I really want this to be more of a reflection on Perkins' talent as a relief pitcher than a shot at Matt Capps, but unfortunately, that will be hard to justify. Capps will be the team's closer entering the regular season, and all signs should point to him rebounding from a difficult season in 2011, which saw him booed mercilessly by Twins fans. The fact of the matter is, regardless of how great a guy he is, or what he brings to the clubhouse, Capps' style of pitching will become more of a liability than an asset. With a mediocre fastball, and really no "go to" pitch to get hitters out, Capps has decided to bring a split-finger fastball into his repertoire. If, and when, this new pitch begins to falter, Capps will find himself going back to what he's been accustomed to, which is the fastball. As that happens, hitters will be ready, and Twins fans will find themselves pulling their hair out a couple of times in April and May. Perkins will be given the opportunity, and will run with it. By season's end, look for Perkins to have more saves than Capps.
4.) Francisco Liriano will set a career high with 18 wins.
We all know he has the talent. We all know he has the right stuff. It's just time for Frankie to believe it himself, and go out there with confidence. If his spring was any indication, it seems like he may just have figured it out. In 27 spring innings, Liriano had a 2.33 ERA, allowed only 27 hits, surrendered only 5 walks, and struck out 33. Obviously, the hitters one faces during a spring game are potentially much different than one might face in the regular season, so the hits and strikeouts could be a bit deceiving. The walks, however, are something that can be looked at with great excitement. What Liriano appears to have figured out is that the devastating slider he has (and yes, it is nasty) does not need to be thrown three or four times an at-bat. He's begun to realize that locating the fastball and getting ahead of hitters will allow him the ability to drop that slider in when it's actually needed. That type of control is exactly what he needs to be successful. As always with Liriano, only time will tell, but from the signs we're all seeing, this season looks like a promising one.
5.) The Twins will be relevant in the American League Central race through August.
OK, so, this one's a little vague. Having lost 99 games in 2011, many people around baseball, as well as many fans of the Twins locally, have already written the 2012 team off as being too similar to their 2011 predecessor. As I stated early on in this post, assuming they're not struck down by the injury bug once again, this team, although appearing similar, is actually different. The lineup, in my opinion, actually got stronger. With the additions of new left fielder Josh Willingham, and back-up catcher/right fielder Ryan Doumit, Parmelee at first base, and a healthy Mauer and Morneau, this Twins lineup should a.) hit for a higher average, b.) hit more home runs, and thus c.) drive in more runs than the 2011 club. Defensively, the Twins brought in Jamey Carroll to solidify the middle infield with Alexi Casilla. Again, injuries were a huge driving force behind the poor fielding seen during 2011, with many players playing positions they may not have been accustomed to. Lastly, if the pitching staff can keep the team in ballgames, (which obviously sounds very cliche, but true), the team will have a chance to win quite a few more games than last season. My second "bold" prediction is that your Minnesota Twins will actually improve their win total to 86 games (up from 63 in 2011). Unfortunately, 86 wins won't be enough to overtake Detroit in the division this season, although it will be much closer than people think. The Twins will, however, finish second in the AL Central, just ahead of the Cleveland Indians.
All told, the 2012 Minnesota Twins should be much more interesting to watch, be a much more exciting team to cheer for, and frankly, be more of a contending team than many are expecting.
Friday starts it off. As of now, it's a clean slate. 0-0. My prediction: 86-76, second in the American League Central.
Thursday, December 15, 2011
Has Cuddyer Hurt Himself By Waiting?
Free agent negotiations are strange thing sometimes. On one hand, you have those players that decide to sign their deals right away, at the first sign of a suitable offer. On the other hand, there are those that decide to play the waiting game, regardless of what offers are out on the table. Neither way is right or wrong, in all reality. They're just...different.
It's all a guessing game, when it comes down to it. If you choose to sign immediately, without letting more offers come in, are you giving yourself a fair chance to make the most money you can? Some might contend that signing right away equals signing too early, that the opportunity to consider other potentially greater offers is missed. Some may also suggest that the first offer received may potentially be the best available, and consider it a smart decision to take it. Yet others believe that letting all offers filter in, and giving yourself options is the best course of action.
In the case of Michael Cuddyer, the jury is still out. Cuddyer received a 3-year, $24-$25 million contract offer from the Minnesota Twins a little over one week ago, thus far the only offer received, at least publicly. Prior to that offer, there had been mild interest shown by a couple of teams, namely the Philadelphia Phillies and the Colorado Rockies, yet, neither have offered the right-handed outfielder a contract.
As the days went on, the Twins found themselves coming to a crossroads. Do they hold out for Cuddyer to make a decision, hoping he elects to accept their offer and re-sign with the Twins? Do they pursue other options in the outfield, assuming Cuddyer receives a better offer from another club? Do they somehow find a way for both?
At first glance, it appears they may have chosen the second option. On Thursday, they finalized a 3-year, $21 million deal with free agent outfielder Josh Willingham. Willingham would be the right-handed outfield replacement for Cuddyer in the Twins' lineup if they are not able to re-sign the 11-year Twin. Given the decision to trim the payroll in 2011, it doesn't seem as though re-signing Cuddyer would be an option anymore.
That being said, if the Twins are now out of the picture, where does that leave Cuddyer? One week after the Twins made their offer, the Cuddyer camp is still awaiting that elusive "other" offer from one of the other interested teams. Is this an instance of possibly waiting too long? With Willingham signing for only $21 million for three years, has Cuddyer's value now been lowered in the eyes of other ball clubs?
Some people with knowledge of the Twins have suggested that maybe Cuddyer's decision to possibly sign elsewhere is not a money-based one. The current direction of the team may also be a huge deciding factor for him. Being 32, his drive to contend for a World Series Championship may be greater than any desire for a big contract. If that's the case, then look for Cuddyer's decision to come much later, as contending teams put the final pieces of their puzzles together. However, if the decision is primarily value and money based, then look for a team in the middle of the pack to snatch up Cuddyer to be a strong leader in their clubhouse.
One way or the other, we should know soon.
It's all a guessing game, when it comes down to it. If you choose to sign immediately, without letting more offers come in, are you giving yourself a fair chance to make the most money you can? Some might contend that signing right away equals signing too early, that the opportunity to consider other potentially greater offers is missed. Some may also suggest that the first offer received may potentially be the best available, and consider it a smart decision to take it. Yet others believe that letting all offers filter in, and giving yourself options is the best course of action.
In the case of Michael Cuddyer, the jury is still out. Cuddyer received a 3-year, $24-$25 million contract offer from the Minnesota Twins a little over one week ago, thus far the only offer received, at least publicly. Prior to that offer, there had been mild interest shown by a couple of teams, namely the Philadelphia Phillies and the Colorado Rockies, yet, neither have offered the right-handed outfielder a contract.
As the days went on, the Twins found themselves coming to a crossroads. Do they hold out for Cuddyer to make a decision, hoping he elects to accept their offer and re-sign with the Twins? Do they pursue other options in the outfield, assuming Cuddyer receives a better offer from another club? Do they somehow find a way for both?
At first glance, it appears they may have chosen the second option. On Thursday, they finalized a 3-year, $21 million deal with free agent outfielder Josh Willingham. Willingham would be the right-handed outfield replacement for Cuddyer in the Twins' lineup if they are not able to re-sign the 11-year Twin. Given the decision to trim the payroll in 2011, it doesn't seem as though re-signing Cuddyer would be an option anymore.
That being said, if the Twins are now out of the picture, where does that leave Cuddyer? One week after the Twins made their offer, the Cuddyer camp is still awaiting that elusive "other" offer from one of the other interested teams. Is this an instance of possibly waiting too long? With Willingham signing for only $21 million for three years, has Cuddyer's value now been lowered in the eyes of other ball clubs?
Some people with knowledge of the Twins have suggested that maybe Cuddyer's decision to possibly sign elsewhere is not a money-based one. The current direction of the team may also be a huge deciding factor for him. Being 32, his drive to contend for a World Series Championship may be greater than any desire for a big contract. If that's the case, then look for Cuddyer's decision to come much later, as contending teams put the final pieces of their puzzles together. However, if the decision is primarily value and money based, then look for a team in the middle of the pack to snatch up Cuddyer to be a strong leader in their clubhouse.
One way or the other, we should know soon.
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Baseball Drama: There's NOTHING Better!
162 games.
There is no lengthier season in professional sports than that of Major League Baseball. Starting at the beginning of April (or sometimes the last day of March), the season begins. It comes to an end on or around the last day of September. That's six months.
For those people who are not true fans of the game, 162 games seems excessive. It seems like overkill. For those that are not true fans of the game, shortening the season sounds like a brilliant idea. After all, the games at the beginning of the season really don't matter, it's just the ones at the end that make the difference.
Tell that to the Atlanta Braves, who lost a "meaningless" game on April 21st to the Los Angeles Dodgers, losing in the 12th inning after blowing a one-run lead in the ninth.
Tell that to the Boston Red Sox, who started their 2011 season 2-10 in April, finally getting themselves back on their typical track.
Tell it to both the Braves and Red Sox, who saw their 2011 seasons come crashing down on the final day of the regular season. Game 162.
Believe it or not, they all matter!
I've been a baseball fan since I was probably about six years old. As a kid, you dream about playing baseball in the big leagues. Some of my fondest memories are of playing catch in the backyard with my father. I remember pitching in grade school, looking off to the side and seeing my grandfather leaning against a tree, watching me. It's personal memories like that which make baseball such a special sports.
My first real memory of dramatic baseball came during the 1986 World Series. I was just starting to truly understand the game and what it meant. Being only eight years old, I had no real comprehension of what that World Series meant to the Boston Red Sox. When I saw the Red Sox lose Game 6 after Bob Stanley blew a save opportunity, leading to the infamous Bill Buckner error, I knew something dramatic and memorable had just happened, and I was hooked! It wasn't until years later that I truly understood the significance of that moment.
I had the great fortune of being in attendance at the Metrodome for the 1987 World Series, to see the Minnesota Twins win their first of two World Series championships. I've never heard a building louder. I was only nine years old at the time, but I knew that what I had just seen was something so unprecedented, so "special", that I figured out; only baseball could provide moments like that.
I remember spending a fall evening in October of 1988 at my grandparents' house. I got ready for bed early so I could just lay in bed in the spare room and watch Game One of the 1988 World Series. The Oakland A's, by all accounts, should have made quick work of the Los Angeles Dodgers. But, a funny, amazing thing happened as I was laying there watching the game, even more amazing to me than the '87 series. A hobbled, injured Kirk Gibson hit an improbable walk-off, two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth off A's closer Dennis Eckersley, who was absolutely untouchable during the regular season. As a ten year-old, I'd never felt goosebumps like that.
In 1991, the Twins reached the World Series again, and once again, I was lucky enough to be there for all four games. I'm 13 years old now, and seem to already have a wealth of baseball history in me just in the past fives years. And yet, it's about to get even deeper. An amazing jumping catch against the plexi-glass wall in left center by Kirby Puckett, followed by a storybook walk-off home run in the 11th inning of Game 6 by Kirby himself sends the Twins and Braves into a Game 7. There was no way to top the emotion from Game 6. Not a chance anything could be more exciting than that!
Wrong. Game 7 proved to be, what I still consider, the greatest baseball game ever played. A game with everything riding on it, with a "win or go home" finale assured. There would be no tomorrow. Twins pitcher, Jack Morris, took to the mound for one of the most amazing, guttiest pitching performances in the history of Major League Baseball; a 10-inning, 1-0 Twins victory, giving them their second World Series title in five seasons. In a word: Epic!
Over the last 20 years of my baseball-watching life, I've seen some amazing things happen, both live and on television. I've seen a World Series clinching walk-off homer by Toronto's Joe Carter in Game 6 of the '93 World Series. I watched the drama unfold in 1998 when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa chased down Roger Maris's home run record of 61, with McGwire breaking it first. I saw the Arizona Diamondbacks break the unbreakable Mariano Rivera to win the 2001 World Series in Game 7. Seeing the 2004 Red Sox exercise their 86 year-old demons and win their first World Series since 1918. I was in attendance at the Metrodome once more in 2009 for Game 163, a one-game playoff between the Twins and Detroit Tigers in which the Twins won a back-and-forth game in extra-innings on a walk-off single to advance to the playoffs.
I've seen quite a bit in my lifetime so far. However, nothing I've seen rivaled what I saw Wednesday night. Four teams; the Cardinals and Braves in the National League, and the Red Sox and Rays in the American League. Two playoff spots; the Wild Cards. One winner. A season where 161 games all led up to this night. Game 162.
The Cardinals made quick work of the Houston Astros, doing their part for the night, leaving it up to Atlanta to decide whether they'd be playing in the post season, or playing a one-game playoff against the Braves on Thursday. Atlanta led Philadelphia 3-2 entering the ninth inning.
The Red Sox, needing a win and a Tampa Bay loss to secure the Wild Card, led 3-2 in the seventh inning before a rain delay kept them waiting, and watching, what was happening in Tampa.
The Rays trailed the Yankees 7-0 entering the bottom of the eighth inning. Many fans in attendance had already left as it seemed an insurmountable lead to overcome. They just needed to hope the Red Sox choked, as they'd been doing throughout September, in order to play a 163rd game on Thursday.
As the Cardinals watched from their clubhouse, the Braves proceeded to blow their one-run lead, allowing the Phillies to tie the game in the top of the ninth, ultimately sending them into extra-innings in Atlanta. As this was happening, the Rays began mounting a minor assault on the Yankees, scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth, allowing Evan Longoria to come to the plate with two runners on. Longoria hit the first pitch he saw into the left-center field stands for a three-run homer, bringing the Rays to within one at 7-6. The Red Sox could only sit and watch as the rain fell in Baltimore.
Once their game resumed, the Red Sox attempted to hold their 3-2 lead, learning that the Rays had just tied their game with the Yankees at 7-7 with a two-out, two-strike, pinch-hit home run by Dan Johnson, a guy who hadn't hit a home run since April. The Red Sox entered the ninth inning leading 3-2.
As the drama unfolded in both Baltimore and Tampa, the Braves succumbed to the pressure of the moment first, allowing a run in the top of the 13th inning, and falling to the Phillies 4-3. The Cardinals were going to be the National League Wild Card winners.
Back in Baltimore, the Orioles start the bottom of the ninth trailing 3-2, facing the ever-intimidating Jonathan Papelbon. After their first two hitters struck out, the Orioles get a double, ground-rule double, and a single from the next three hitters to win the game 4-3, sending the Red Sox into waiting mode to find out if the Yankees could beat the Rays to create the need for a one-game playoff on Thursday.
Boston wouldn't be waiting long. Within three minutes of the Red Sox losing, Evan Longoria comes to the plate for Tampa Bay with one out in the bottom of the 12th inning, and lines the 2-2 pitch over the wall in left field for a walk-off, Wild Card-clinching 8-7 victory.
The drama within those 90 minutes was, as far as I'm concerned, unmatched in baseball. Having all four games taking place at the same time, having two of the four go into extra-innings, having three teams (Braves, Red Sox, and Yankees) all blow ninth-inning saves with two-outs, having three incredible clutch home runs hit by Tampa Bay in the 8th, 9th, and 12th innings...having it all happen within 90 minutes, on the last day of the regular season. Words can hardly describe it and give it justice.
If you're somebody who thinks the regular season is too long, and that baseball is boring, there are some people that might agree with you. For me, however, I couldn't imagine it being any other way. Wednesday night WAS baseball. Nights like that may not happen often, or ever, for that matter. But, when they do, they're nights you will always remember!
There is no lengthier season in professional sports than that of Major League Baseball. Starting at the beginning of April (or sometimes the last day of March), the season begins. It comes to an end on or around the last day of September. That's six months.
For those people who are not true fans of the game, 162 games seems excessive. It seems like overkill. For those that are not true fans of the game, shortening the season sounds like a brilliant idea. After all, the games at the beginning of the season really don't matter, it's just the ones at the end that make the difference.
Tell that to the Atlanta Braves, who lost a "meaningless" game on April 21st to the Los Angeles Dodgers, losing in the 12th inning after blowing a one-run lead in the ninth.
Tell that to the Boston Red Sox, who started their 2011 season 2-10 in April, finally getting themselves back on their typical track.
Tell it to both the Braves and Red Sox, who saw their 2011 seasons come crashing down on the final day of the regular season. Game 162.
Believe it or not, they all matter!
I've been a baseball fan since I was probably about six years old. As a kid, you dream about playing baseball in the big leagues. Some of my fondest memories are of playing catch in the backyard with my father. I remember pitching in grade school, looking off to the side and seeing my grandfather leaning against a tree, watching me. It's personal memories like that which make baseball such a special sports.
My first real memory of dramatic baseball came during the 1986 World Series. I was just starting to truly understand the game and what it meant. Being only eight years old, I had no real comprehension of what that World Series meant to the Boston Red Sox. When I saw the Red Sox lose Game 6 after Bob Stanley blew a save opportunity, leading to the infamous Bill Buckner error, I knew something dramatic and memorable had just happened, and I was hooked! It wasn't until years later that I truly understood the significance of that moment.
I had the great fortune of being in attendance at the Metrodome for the 1987 World Series, to see the Minnesota Twins win their first of two World Series championships. I've never heard a building louder. I was only nine years old at the time, but I knew that what I had just seen was something so unprecedented, so "special", that I figured out; only baseball could provide moments like that.
I remember spending a fall evening in October of 1988 at my grandparents' house. I got ready for bed early so I could just lay in bed in the spare room and watch Game One of the 1988 World Series. The Oakland A's, by all accounts, should have made quick work of the Los Angeles Dodgers. But, a funny, amazing thing happened as I was laying there watching the game, even more amazing to me than the '87 series. A hobbled, injured Kirk Gibson hit an improbable walk-off, two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth off A's closer Dennis Eckersley, who was absolutely untouchable during the regular season. As a ten year-old, I'd never felt goosebumps like that.
In 1991, the Twins reached the World Series again, and once again, I was lucky enough to be there for all four games. I'm 13 years old now, and seem to already have a wealth of baseball history in me just in the past fives years. And yet, it's about to get even deeper. An amazing jumping catch against the plexi-glass wall in left center by Kirby Puckett, followed by a storybook walk-off home run in the 11th inning of Game 6 by Kirby himself sends the Twins and Braves into a Game 7. There was no way to top the emotion from Game 6. Not a chance anything could be more exciting than that!
Wrong. Game 7 proved to be, what I still consider, the greatest baseball game ever played. A game with everything riding on it, with a "win or go home" finale assured. There would be no tomorrow. Twins pitcher, Jack Morris, took to the mound for one of the most amazing, guttiest pitching performances in the history of Major League Baseball; a 10-inning, 1-0 Twins victory, giving them their second World Series title in five seasons. In a word: Epic!
Over the last 20 years of my baseball-watching life, I've seen some amazing things happen, both live and on television. I've seen a World Series clinching walk-off homer by Toronto's Joe Carter in Game 6 of the '93 World Series. I watched the drama unfold in 1998 when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa chased down Roger Maris's home run record of 61, with McGwire breaking it first. I saw the Arizona Diamondbacks break the unbreakable Mariano Rivera to win the 2001 World Series in Game 7. Seeing the 2004 Red Sox exercise their 86 year-old demons and win their first World Series since 1918. I was in attendance at the Metrodome once more in 2009 for Game 163, a one-game playoff between the Twins and Detroit Tigers in which the Twins won a back-and-forth game in extra-innings on a walk-off single to advance to the playoffs.
I've seen quite a bit in my lifetime so far. However, nothing I've seen rivaled what I saw Wednesday night. Four teams; the Cardinals and Braves in the National League, and the Red Sox and Rays in the American League. Two playoff spots; the Wild Cards. One winner. A season where 161 games all led up to this night. Game 162.
The Cardinals made quick work of the Houston Astros, doing their part for the night, leaving it up to Atlanta to decide whether they'd be playing in the post season, or playing a one-game playoff against the Braves on Thursday. Atlanta led Philadelphia 3-2 entering the ninth inning.
The Red Sox, needing a win and a Tampa Bay loss to secure the Wild Card, led 3-2 in the seventh inning before a rain delay kept them waiting, and watching, what was happening in Tampa.
The Rays trailed the Yankees 7-0 entering the bottom of the eighth inning. Many fans in attendance had already left as it seemed an insurmountable lead to overcome. They just needed to hope the Red Sox choked, as they'd been doing throughout September, in order to play a 163rd game on Thursday.
As the Cardinals watched from their clubhouse, the Braves proceeded to blow their one-run lead, allowing the Phillies to tie the game in the top of the ninth, ultimately sending them into extra-innings in Atlanta. As this was happening, the Rays began mounting a minor assault on the Yankees, scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth, allowing Evan Longoria to come to the plate with two runners on. Longoria hit the first pitch he saw into the left-center field stands for a three-run homer, bringing the Rays to within one at 7-6. The Red Sox could only sit and watch as the rain fell in Baltimore.
Once their game resumed, the Red Sox attempted to hold their 3-2 lead, learning that the Rays had just tied their game with the Yankees at 7-7 with a two-out, two-strike, pinch-hit home run by Dan Johnson, a guy who hadn't hit a home run since April. The Red Sox entered the ninth inning leading 3-2.
As the drama unfolded in both Baltimore and Tampa, the Braves succumbed to the pressure of the moment first, allowing a run in the top of the 13th inning, and falling to the Phillies 4-3. The Cardinals were going to be the National League Wild Card winners.
Back in Baltimore, the Orioles start the bottom of the ninth trailing 3-2, facing the ever-intimidating Jonathan Papelbon. After their first two hitters struck out, the Orioles get a double, ground-rule double, and a single from the next three hitters to win the game 4-3, sending the Red Sox into waiting mode to find out if the Yankees could beat the Rays to create the need for a one-game playoff on Thursday.
Boston wouldn't be waiting long. Within three minutes of the Red Sox losing, Evan Longoria comes to the plate for Tampa Bay with one out in the bottom of the 12th inning, and lines the 2-2 pitch over the wall in left field for a walk-off, Wild Card-clinching 8-7 victory.
The drama within those 90 minutes was, as far as I'm concerned, unmatched in baseball. Having all four games taking place at the same time, having two of the four go into extra-innings, having three teams (Braves, Red Sox, and Yankees) all blow ninth-inning saves with two-outs, having three incredible clutch home runs hit by Tampa Bay in the 8th, 9th, and 12th innings...having it all happen within 90 minutes, on the last day of the regular season. Words can hardly describe it and give it justice.
If you're somebody who thinks the regular season is too long, and that baseball is boring, there are some people that might agree with you. For me, however, I couldn't imagine it being any other way. Wednesday night WAS baseball. Nights like that may not happen often, or ever, for that matter. But, when they do, they're nights you will always remember!
Monday, September 26, 2011
This Twins Downfall Started In 2007
With the Twins' season coming to a close this week, there have been some positive discussions and quite a few negative ones. To be fair, I've been one who has chosen to see more of the negative aspects of this club than the positives, after all, there have been almost twice as many. We've beat the injury excuse to death already. I've hinted that perhaps it's the coaching staff who should be to blame, although I'm beginning to back off that idea a little bit. Just this past week, I heard the ultimate reason for the Twins demise this season: The Curse of Wally The Beer-Man.
In all reality, the Twins' demise this season, their ineptitude in postseasons of the past, and the potential struggles yet to come in future seasons, can be traced back to one fateful day back in September of 2007. It was then that Mr. Bill Smith accepted a promotion from Vice President, Assistant General Manager to Terry Ryan to become the new Senior Vice President, General Manager of the Minnesota Twins.
Smith was immediately handed a difficult task: Finding a way to either keep center-fielder Torii Hunter and two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana, or to make the most out of their departure. It was clear from the start that it would be impossible to hold on to both players. Hunter was a free agent after the 2007 season, and Santana would be after the 2008 campaign. If Smith opted to throw the necessary money at Hunter to keep him, then Santana would be lost. If he decided to let Hunter go and focus his attention on Santana, he'd risk losing both without getting anything.
The Twins made an offer to Hunter in August of 2007; a three-year, $45 million offer. The offer was made by then GM Terry Ryan. Smith took over the reigns in mid-September as the GM, and failed to make another offer. Whether it was something lost in the shuffle of the transition, or just a decision that they couldn't go any higher, the Twins lost Hunter to the Los Angeles Angels for a five-year, $90 million contract. Although disappointing to lose someone of Hunter's character and talent, it opened the door for Smith and the Twins to focus their attention on keeping the best pitcher in baseball, Santana.
Smith turned his attention to Santana, knowing it would either be a "re-sign him or trade him" outcome. The club offered him a five-year, $96 million deal. Santana's people countered with a seven-year, $126 million deal. It quickly became clear that Santana's price would be too high, and the club's best chance would be to trade Santana and get some good value in return. In hindsight, Santana has missed the entire 2011 season and part of the 2010 season with elbow injuries, so signing him may have proved to be a mistake, however, I'm not sure that mistake would compare to the colossal blunder that was about to happen.
Deciding to trade Santana, the Twins put everyone on notice, entertaining offers from the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox. As you would expect they would, the Yankees and Red Sox began battling with each other to try and land Santana. The Dodgers, seeing what the Sox and Yankees were offering, quickly decided to pull out of the running. Smith had exactly what he should've wanted: a bidding war of sorts between the Yankees and Red Sox. First the Red Sox upped their offer, and then the Yankees threw in another stud, which caused the Sox to make another change. In the end, the offers sat there for a couple weeks.
They sat until Smith had done the impossible. He'd actually annoyed the Yankees enough by not making a decision that they'd lost interest and pulled their best offer off the table. That offer included outfielder Melky Cabrera and pitcher Phil Hughes. That left the Red Sox and Mets. The Red Sox began to lose interest, as well, having waited long enough for an answer. Smith continued to push them for more and more, even after they'd improved their original offer dramatically. In the end, the Red Sox offered a trade with one of two centerpieces: either left-handed pitcher Jon Lester, or center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, coupled with two young prospects, pitcher Justin Masterson and infielder Jed Lowrie. Smith asked for all four. The Red Sox said no. So, Smith did the only thing he could do.
He accepted the Mets offer.
The Mets offered outfielder Carlos Gomez and three pitchers; Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Gomez had played a few games for the Mets in 2007 and showed some promise, but was very rough around the edges. The three pitchers had little to no big league experience, and would be projects. Hindsight, again, is always 20/20, but taking a look at the cornerstone players involved in the deals with Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets since 2008 (the year they would've been Twins), it's clear that Smith's run as General Manager of the Twins would be nothing short of disappointing.
If you want more proof, here you go:
In all reality, the Twins' demise this season, their ineptitude in postseasons of the past, and the potential struggles yet to come in future seasons, can be traced back to one fateful day back in September of 2007. It was then that Mr. Bill Smith accepted a promotion from Vice President, Assistant General Manager to Terry Ryan to become the new Senior Vice President, General Manager of the Minnesota Twins.
Smith was immediately handed a difficult task: Finding a way to either keep center-fielder Torii Hunter and two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana, or to make the most out of their departure. It was clear from the start that it would be impossible to hold on to both players. Hunter was a free agent after the 2007 season, and Santana would be after the 2008 campaign. If Smith opted to throw the necessary money at Hunter to keep him, then Santana would be lost. If he decided to let Hunter go and focus his attention on Santana, he'd risk losing both without getting anything.
The Twins made an offer to Hunter in August of 2007; a three-year, $45 million offer. The offer was made by then GM Terry Ryan. Smith took over the reigns in mid-September as the GM, and failed to make another offer. Whether it was something lost in the shuffle of the transition, or just a decision that they couldn't go any higher, the Twins lost Hunter to the Los Angeles Angels for a five-year, $90 million contract. Although disappointing to lose someone of Hunter's character and talent, it opened the door for Smith and the Twins to focus their attention on keeping the best pitcher in baseball, Santana.
Smith turned his attention to Santana, knowing it would either be a "re-sign him or trade him" outcome. The club offered him a five-year, $96 million deal. Santana's people countered with a seven-year, $126 million deal. It quickly became clear that Santana's price would be too high, and the club's best chance would be to trade Santana and get some good value in return. In hindsight, Santana has missed the entire 2011 season and part of the 2010 season with elbow injuries, so signing him may have proved to be a mistake, however, I'm not sure that mistake would compare to the colossal blunder that was about to happen.
Deciding to trade Santana, the Twins put everyone on notice, entertaining offers from the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox. As you would expect they would, the Yankees and Red Sox began battling with each other to try and land Santana. The Dodgers, seeing what the Sox and Yankees were offering, quickly decided to pull out of the running. Smith had exactly what he should've wanted: a bidding war of sorts between the Yankees and Red Sox. First the Red Sox upped their offer, and then the Yankees threw in another stud, which caused the Sox to make another change. In the end, the offers sat there for a couple weeks.
They sat until Smith had done the impossible. He'd actually annoyed the Yankees enough by not making a decision that they'd lost interest and pulled their best offer off the table. That offer included outfielder Melky Cabrera and pitcher Phil Hughes. That left the Red Sox and Mets. The Red Sox began to lose interest, as well, having waited long enough for an answer. Smith continued to push them for more and more, even after they'd improved their original offer dramatically. In the end, the Red Sox offered a trade with one of two centerpieces: either left-handed pitcher Jon Lester, or center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, coupled with two young prospects, pitcher Justin Masterson and infielder Jed Lowrie. Smith asked for all four. The Red Sox said no. So, Smith did the only thing he could do.
He accepted the Mets offer.
The Mets offered outfielder Carlos Gomez and three pitchers; Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Gomez had played a few games for the Mets in 2007 and showed some promise, but was very rough around the edges. The three pitchers had little to no big league experience, and would be projects. Hindsight, again, is always 20/20, but taking a look at the cornerstone players involved in the deals with Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets since 2008 (the year they would've been Twins), it's clear that Smith's run as General Manager of the Twins would be nothing short of disappointing.
| Jacoby Ellsbury | Melky Cabrera | Carlos Gomez | ||||
| Avg | .298 | .274 | .244 | |||
| AB | 1902 | 2012 | 1412 | |||
| H | 566 | 552 | 344 | |||
| HR | 48 | 43 | 22 | |||
| RBI | 215 | 234 | 132 | |||
| XBH | 168 | 164 | 101 | |||
| SB | 165 | 46 | 81 | |||
| Justin Masterson | Phil Hughes | Philip Humber | ||||
| G | 146 | 105 | 48 | |||
| W | 28 | 31 | 11 | |||
| L | 38 | 20 | 10 | |||
| ERA | 3.92 | 4.49 | 4.05 | |||
| IP | 613.2 | 369.1 | 202.2 | |||
| SO | 485 | 310 | 138 | |||
| BB | 238 | 125 | 58 |
If you want more proof, here you go:
- November 29th, 2007: Smith trades pitcher Matt Garza (career 51-54, 3.84 ERA, 761 SO) and SS Jason Bartlett (career .275, 31 HR, 282 RBI) to Tampa Bay for outfielder Delmon Young (career .287, 69 HR, 402 RBI) and SS Brendan Harris (career .260, 29 HR, 158 RBI). Although this trade happened before the Santana trade, it's significance wasn't known until the Twins failed to acquire a legit replacement for Santana at the top of the rotation. Garza had potential to be a top tier starter, and proved so in Tampa Bay's run to the World Series in 2008.
- December 9th, 2010: Smith trades SS J.J. Hardy (who was acquired a year earlier from Milwaukee for Carlos Gomez) and SS Brendan Harris (who was acquired for Garza and Young) and $500,000 to Baltimore for pitcher Brett Jacobson and relief pitcher Jim Hoey. The move was made to clear room, both under the cap and on the field, for the Twins to bring in SS Tsuoyshi Nishioka from Japan. No need to say anything more on that.
- July 29th, 2010: Smith trades prized catching prospect Wilson Ramos to the Washington Nationals for closer Matt Capps. With Joe Nathan missing the entire 2010 season with Tommy John surgery, it was important for the Twins to get someone to seal up games at the end. Although his 2011 was less than desired, Capps filled the critical role perfectly last season. The issue with this deal, you ask? With the health of Joe Mauer a question even last season, to trade a valuable back-up catching option like Ramos for a closer in the heat of the moment was a terrible decision. To put it in perspective, Ramos' 2011 season: .269, 15 HR, 52 RBI, 38 XBH, and a On Base+Slugging % of .784. The Twins two back-up catchers, Drew Butera and Rene Rivera combined in 2011: .160, 3 HR, 28 RBI, 16 XBH, and a combined On Base+Slugging % of .436. A decision that no doubt affected the Twins this season.
Unfortunately for Twins fans, I don't think we've seen the last of Mr. Smith. This offseason will prove to be an interesting one, to say the least.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
The Twins Cannot Repeat History
After reading a great article from Star Tribune sports writer Patrick Reusse ("This has all the earmarks of a lengthy Twins dive"), I realized how familiar this Twins season is becoming. Reusse is spot on with his observations, and quite honestly, it's scary to truly see the similarities between the Twins of the mid-90's and the current iteration.
Hopefully, however, this current version of the Twins, both players and front office alike, will learn from the mistakes of their predecessors, and re-write history.
As fans, we have to believe that what we're seeing in 2011 is nothing more than the anomaly. The debacle that has been the 2011 season is nothing more than a season filled with incredibly bad luck, right? I mean, the injury issues alone couldn't reproduce themselves again in 2012, could they? There's really no way possible that the Twins big guns can't get back to their usual MVP selves, is there?
The problem is that, unless the organization decides to be proactive and do something, what Reusse speaks about will become gospel in 2012 and beyond. So, what can the team realistically do?
For starters, let's assume the major injuries of 2011 resolve themselves this offseason. Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Denard Span will all be back at 100% at the start of Spring Training. Let's just pretend, for a moment, that the Twins are able to re-sign both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel to solidify the core of the lineup, as well as come to terms with Joe Nathan on a multi-year deal that will enable Joe to end his career with the Twins, as it appears he wants to do. And lastly, let's also say, for argument's sake, that the banged up starting rotation returns from their myriad of arm issues. Assuming all of these things, where are the areas for the Twins to make significant changes to ensure that 2011 was nothing more than a minor speed bump?
One glaring hole needing immediate resolution going into the 2012 season is the middle infield, specifically the shortstop position. After choosing to not bring back J.J. Hardy after the 2010 season in favor of the unknown and unproven Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the Twins took a major step back. Oddly enough, the Twins front office felt Hardy's injury problems were too much to invest another year in, opting instead to let him go in trade to the Orioles. Should they feel the same way about most of the injured 2011 roster, we may be in complete rebuilding mode. In 2009, the Twins made a late-season trade to acquire Orlando Cabrera to bring some veteran stability to an important position, but decided his price tag was too high for 2010, instead signing Hardy. The problematic pattern presenting itself in this case seems that the Twins are unwilling to pay for stability at a very important position. The current options at shortstop are Trevor Plouffe and Nishioka. Plouffe has shown some signs of being a viable offensive solution at short, but his defense leaves quite a bit to be desired. Nishioka needs a major overhaul, both offensively and defensively. Until that happens, "Nishy" should be relegated to nothing but utility duty. Finding a solid veteran shortstop, either through trade or on the free agent market, should be a priority for the Twins to give themselves at least a couple of options going into spring.
Another hole needing attention is that of the bullpen. Middle relief was a major hurdle to overcome for this squad, particularly from the likes of Jose Mijares and Alex Burnett. Combined, the two relievers had an ERA near 5.00, striking out 61 batters while walking 51. Not the poster children for reliability, that's for sure. Mijares lost his late inning specialty role to Glen Perkins, who was seemingly the only bright spot in the bullpen this season. The middle relief roles, both right and left-handed, occupied by Burnett and Mijares respectively, need to be re-cast. Given the free agent market for relief pitchers in 2012, this might have to occur through trade. Regardless of how it gets done, the Twins need to address this pressing issue before pitchers and catchers report in February.
The last area needing to be seriously looked at in order to avoid a long spell of sub-par seasons is one which wasn't considered back in 1993. It's not an easy option to consider, but it should be something at least discussed. That option is a change in the coaching staff. Back in 1993, Tom Kelly was in his seventh full season as the manager of the Twins. It was hard to argue with two World Series titles in five seasons, so it seemed understandable that a change at the helm didn't need to be made right away. The coaches, however, could've possibly been shaken up a bit. With Tony Olivia retiring as the Twins' hitting coach after the 1991 season, Terry Crowley took over. Again, it might've seemed a bit rash to replace Crowley after only two season as the team's hitting instructor. Dick Such remained the team's pitching coach through the 2000 season. It's possible that a change there might have sparked something with the pitching staff, but it's difficult to say.
Fast forward to 2011, and we have a different coaching scenario than we had back in 1993, when the run of losing seasons began for the Twins. Now, we have two members of the coaching staff, hitting coach Joe Vavra, and pitching coach Rick Anderson, who have been in their positions six and eleven years, respectively. With the exception of an increase between 2007 into 2008, the Twins, as a team, have seen declines in batting average, hits, and runs under Vavra. Vavra is the second-longest tenured hitting coach in all of baseball, behind only Mickey Hatcher of the Los Angeles Angels. Similarly, Anderson has the third longest tenure amongst pitching coaches behind Dave Duncan of the Cardinals and Dave Righetti of the Giants. Before things get too out of hand, as they did in 1993, it may be wise for the Twins front office to decide to take the leadership of the team into a different direction.
2012 does not need to be the "end of the world" for the Twins, pun intended. It will only end up that way if the team decides to allow it to happen. Let's hope, for the sake of the players and fans, the decision is to erase 2011 from our memories by repeating the feat of the 1991 team, that being to finish in last place the year before contending for the title.
Hopefully, however, this current version of the Twins, both players and front office alike, will learn from the mistakes of their predecessors, and re-write history.
As fans, we have to believe that what we're seeing in 2011 is nothing more than the anomaly. The debacle that has been the 2011 season is nothing more than a season filled with incredibly bad luck, right? I mean, the injury issues alone couldn't reproduce themselves again in 2012, could they? There's really no way possible that the Twins big guns can't get back to their usual MVP selves, is there?
The problem is that, unless the organization decides to be proactive and do something, what Reusse speaks about will become gospel in 2012 and beyond. So, what can the team realistically do?
For starters, let's assume the major injuries of 2011 resolve themselves this offseason. Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Denard Span will all be back at 100% at the start of Spring Training. Let's just pretend, for a moment, that the Twins are able to re-sign both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel to solidify the core of the lineup, as well as come to terms with Joe Nathan on a multi-year deal that will enable Joe to end his career with the Twins, as it appears he wants to do. And lastly, let's also say, for argument's sake, that the banged up starting rotation returns from their myriad of arm issues. Assuming all of these things, where are the areas for the Twins to make significant changes to ensure that 2011 was nothing more than a minor speed bump?
One glaring hole needing immediate resolution going into the 2012 season is the middle infield, specifically the shortstop position. After choosing to not bring back J.J. Hardy after the 2010 season in favor of the unknown and unproven Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the Twins took a major step back. Oddly enough, the Twins front office felt Hardy's injury problems were too much to invest another year in, opting instead to let him go in trade to the Orioles. Should they feel the same way about most of the injured 2011 roster, we may be in complete rebuilding mode. In 2009, the Twins made a late-season trade to acquire Orlando Cabrera to bring some veteran stability to an important position, but decided his price tag was too high for 2010, instead signing Hardy. The problematic pattern presenting itself in this case seems that the Twins are unwilling to pay for stability at a very important position. The current options at shortstop are Trevor Plouffe and Nishioka. Plouffe has shown some signs of being a viable offensive solution at short, but his defense leaves quite a bit to be desired. Nishioka needs a major overhaul, both offensively and defensively. Until that happens, "Nishy" should be relegated to nothing but utility duty. Finding a solid veteran shortstop, either through trade or on the free agent market, should be a priority for the Twins to give themselves at least a couple of options going into spring.
Another hole needing attention is that of the bullpen. Middle relief was a major hurdle to overcome for this squad, particularly from the likes of Jose Mijares and Alex Burnett. Combined, the two relievers had an ERA near 5.00, striking out 61 batters while walking 51. Not the poster children for reliability, that's for sure. Mijares lost his late inning specialty role to Glen Perkins, who was seemingly the only bright spot in the bullpen this season. The middle relief roles, both right and left-handed, occupied by Burnett and Mijares respectively, need to be re-cast. Given the free agent market for relief pitchers in 2012, this might have to occur through trade. Regardless of how it gets done, the Twins need to address this pressing issue before pitchers and catchers report in February.
The last area needing to be seriously looked at in order to avoid a long spell of sub-par seasons is one which wasn't considered back in 1993. It's not an easy option to consider, but it should be something at least discussed. That option is a change in the coaching staff. Back in 1993, Tom Kelly was in his seventh full season as the manager of the Twins. It was hard to argue with two World Series titles in five seasons, so it seemed understandable that a change at the helm didn't need to be made right away. The coaches, however, could've possibly been shaken up a bit. With Tony Olivia retiring as the Twins' hitting coach after the 1991 season, Terry Crowley took over. Again, it might've seemed a bit rash to replace Crowley after only two season as the team's hitting instructor. Dick Such remained the team's pitching coach through the 2000 season. It's possible that a change there might have sparked something with the pitching staff, but it's difficult to say.
Fast forward to 2011, and we have a different coaching scenario than we had back in 1993, when the run of losing seasons began for the Twins. Now, we have two members of the coaching staff, hitting coach Joe Vavra, and pitching coach Rick Anderson, who have been in their positions six and eleven years, respectively. With the exception of an increase between 2007 into 2008, the Twins, as a team, have seen declines in batting average, hits, and runs under Vavra. Vavra is the second-longest tenured hitting coach in all of baseball, behind only Mickey Hatcher of the Los Angeles Angels. Similarly, Anderson has the third longest tenure amongst pitching coaches behind Dave Duncan of the Cardinals and Dave Righetti of the Giants. Before things get too out of hand, as they did in 1993, it may be wise for the Twins front office to decide to take the leadership of the team into a different direction.
2012 does not need to be the "end of the world" for the Twins, pun intended. It will only end up that way if the team decides to allow it to happen. Let's hope, for the sake of the players and fans, the decision is to erase 2011 from our memories by repeating the feat of the 1991 team, that being to finish in last place the year before contending for the title.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Twins Face Tough, But Necessary Choices
Since this is a topic I've already covered once within the last month, I'll try to keep it a little short this time around.
With the Twins being shut out for a 13th time this season, there is a question that needs to, not only be asked, but quite frankly, one that needs to be answered sooner rather than later. That question is: Who will be held accountable for the Twins' offensive struggles this season?
I've contended for most of the season, even before the offense went from mediocre to sub-par, that the Twins' front office needs to take a serious look at changing some of the major "players" in order to make a significant change going into 2012. When I say "players," I'm not referring to those that take the field on a day-to-day basis (or a day-to-every-third-day basis, as is the case with one Mr. Mauer). I'm referring to the coaching staff. As the saying goes, the definition of "insanity" is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. With the Twins scoring one run or fewer for the 40th time this season, I would say that constitutes doing the same thing over and over again and waiting for a different result, wouldn't you?
Quite honestly, the three coaches who have the most impact on the team itself are pitching coach Rick Anderson, hitting coach Joe Vavra, and the manager himself, Ron Gardenhire. In any organization, sports or otherwise, when the employees are unable to get the job done, the "bosses" are looked upon to determine if the proper training and coaching was given to allow them to succeed. If the answer is yes, then the employees are let go and replaced. If the answer is no, the boss is deemed to be inadequate, and often times replaced.
Take a department store, for example. When a particular department is not succeeding, the Store Manager would look at the supervisor of that department to determine if he/she has been giving their employees everything they need to be successful. If they have, the Manager would ask the the employee be fired. If the Manager deemed that the supervisor was not providing the best leadership to those employees, then it would be the supervisor who would find him or herself replaced.
What Gardenhire needs to do is take a long, hard look at his staff. That look needs to take into account the overall season's performances, and not allow personal friendships to interfere. After all, this team is actually a "business". What he needs to realize is that, although they may have been great at getting results in the past, their message may now be stale. The results both Vavra and Anderson attained in years past may have ultimately been the pinnacle of what they were capable of attaining. It may just be time for someone else to take over the reigns to take this team a little further going forward.
As with any sport, the goal is to win. Plain and simple. As with many sports, that goal is attained by outscoring your opponents. In football, if a team gives up 40 points, but scores 45, they win the game. In hockey, if a team gives up five goals, but scores seven, guess what? It's still a win. The same theory can, and should, be applied to baseball. Unless you are a team fortunate to have the likes of a Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia, or a Felix Hernandez at the top of your rotation, the likelihood of you needing only a run or two to outscore your opponent is slim to none.
That being said, it would be imperative for a team like the Twins, with the inconsistent track record of their pitching staff, to put an emphasis on the offensive side of the ball. This season, the Twins have more games of four or fewer hits (20) than any other team in baseball. How have the Twins decided to address this issue thus far? They've decided to fire both Tom Nieto and Floyd Rayford, their Triple-A manager and hitting coach. But those 20 games of four or fewer hits took place at the Major League level, not Rochester. Of those 20 games, the big four of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Kubel each played in at least nine, so, to say that the lack of hits came as a result of the injury bug would be a stretch, considering even the "big guns" were unable to hit their ways on base.
The Twins' front office needs to consult Gardenhire and allow him to make the correct decision for the ball club, which is to remove Joe Vavra from his position as the hitting coach of this team. Vavra has served the team well over his almost six years as hitting coach, but as with many things, it's time to move on. If Gardnhire is unwilling to make that difficult decision, or doesn't see it as an option, then perhaps the front office needs to look long and hard and making a different change; that being at the managerial position.
With the Twins being shut out for a 13th time this season, there is a question that needs to, not only be asked, but quite frankly, one that needs to be answered sooner rather than later. That question is: Who will be held accountable for the Twins' offensive struggles this season?
I've contended for most of the season, even before the offense went from mediocre to sub-par, that the Twins' front office needs to take a serious look at changing some of the major "players" in order to make a significant change going into 2012. When I say "players," I'm not referring to those that take the field on a day-to-day basis (or a day-to-every-third-day basis, as is the case with one Mr. Mauer). I'm referring to the coaching staff. As the saying goes, the definition of "insanity" is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. With the Twins scoring one run or fewer for the 40th time this season, I would say that constitutes doing the same thing over and over again and waiting for a different result, wouldn't you?
Quite honestly, the three coaches who have the most impact on the team itself are pitching coach Rick Anderson, hitting coach Joe Vavra, and the manager himself, Ron Gardenhire. In any organization, sports or otherwise, when the employees are unable to get the job done, the "bosses" are looked upon to determine if the proper training and coaching was given to allow them to succeed. If the answer is yes, then the employees are let go and replaced. If the answer is no, the boss is deemed to be inadequate, and often times replaced.
Take a department store, for example. When a particular department is not succeeding, the Store Manager would look at the supervisor of that department to determine if he/she has been giving their employees everything they need to be successful. If they have, the Manager would ask the the employee be fired. If the Manager deemed that the supervisor was not providing the best leadership to those employees, then it would be the supervisor who would find him or herself replaced.
What Gardenhire needs to do is take a long, hard look at his staff. That look needs to take into account the overall season's performances, and not allow personal friendships to interfere. After all, this team is actually a "business". What he needs to realize is that, although they may have been great at getting results in the past, their message may now be stale. The results both Vavra and Anderson attained in years past may have ultimately been the pinnacle of what they were capable of attaining. It may just be time for someone else to take over the reigns to take this team a little further going forward.
As with any sport, the goal is to win. Plain and simple. As with many sports, that goal is attained by outscoring your opponents. In football, if a team gives up 40 points, but scores 45, they win the game. In hockey, if a team gives up five goals, but scores seven, guess what? It's still a win. The same theory can, and should, be applied to baseball. Unless you are a team fortunate to have the likes of a Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia, or a Felix Hernandez at the top of your rotation, the likelihood of you needing only a run or two to outscore your opponent is slim to none.
That being said, it would be imperative for a team like the Twins, with the inconsistent track record of their pitching staff, to put an emphasis on the offensive side of the ball. This season, the Twins have more games of four or fewer hits (20) than any other team in baseball. How have the Twins decided to address this issue thus far? They've decided to fire both Tom Nieto and Floyd Rayford, their Triple-A manager and hitting coach. But those 20 games of four or fewer hits took place at the Major League level, not Rochester. Of those 20 games, the big four of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Kubel each played in at least nine, so, to say that the lack of hits came as a result of the injury bug would be a stretch, considering even the "big guns" were unable to hit their ways on base.
The Twins' front office needs to consult Gardenhire and allow him to make the correct decision for the ball club, which is to remove Joe Vavra from his position as the hitting coach of this team. Vavra has served the team well over his almost six years as hitting coach, but as with many things, it's time to move on. If Gardnhire is unwilling to make that difficult decision, or doesn't see it as an option, then perhaps the front office needs to look long and hard and making a different change; that being at the managerial position.
Friday, August 26, 2011
It's Time To Play...Whose Fault Is It Anyway?
It's been a head-scratching last week and a half for the Twins. With the team losing its sixth consecutive game for the third time this season, many Twins fans have been at a loss for words. We've been accustomed to blaming this dismal 2011 season on the barrage of injuries the team has fallen into, but to use that as an excuse is the coward's way out. With what we've seen over the last 10 days, blame should be, not so much focused on the players, but more heavily on the coaching staff.
The Twins came back into the friendly confines of Target Field after a rough road trip, only to find the New York Yankees waiting for them in the third base dugout. As usual, the Bronx Bombers laid waste to the hometown nine, beating them two out of three, ending the series with a 3-0 shutout. Thankfully, or so it seemed, the Twins welcomed in the last place Baltimore Orioles for a four-game series, which, for all intensive purposes, should've been a chance for this club to save a little face and redeem themselves a little bit toward the end of this season.
That didn't happen.
The Twins were swept by the Orioles in a four-game series for the first time in their franchise's history. Adding insult to (numerous) injuries, the Twins scored only one run in each of the four games. After falling to the Detroit Tigers 8-1 in the first game of their three-game series on Friday night, that brought the total to five runs in six games (counting the final game of the Yankees' series). Five total runs in 54 total innings. Truly a sad state of affairs.
Sure, there were a few mental lapses in the field. Of course, the pitching staff had its problems, namely Francisco Liriano, who landed on the disabled list with shoulder pain after pitching only two innings in Thursday's loss to Baltimore. However, to score only one run in five consecutive games is down-right pitiful, and that can't be blamed on anyone but hitting coach, Joe Vavra.
As of August 26th, the Twins offense as been absolutely offensive:
The Twins came back into the friendly confines of Target Field after a rough road trip, only to find the New York Yankees waiting for them in the third base dugout. As usual, the Bronx Bombers laid waste to the hometown nine, beating them two out of three, ending the series with a 3-0 shutout. Thankfully, or so it seemed, the Twins welcomed in the last place Baltimore Orioles for a four-game series, which, for all intensive purposes, should've been a chance for this club to save a little face and redeem themselves a little bit toward the end of this season.
That didn't happen.
The Twins were swept by the Orioles in a four-game series for the first time in their franchise's history. Adding insult to (numerous) injuries, the Twins scored only one run in each of the four games. After falling to the Detroit Tigers 8-1 in the first game of their three-game series on Friday night, that brought the total to five runs in six games (counting the final game of the Yankees' series). Five total runs in 54 total innings. Truly a sad state of affairs.
Sure, there were a few mental lapses in the field. Of course, the pitching staff had its problems, namely Francisco Liriano, who landed on the disabled list with shoulder pain after pitching only two innings in Thursday's loss to Baltimore. However, to score only one run in five consecutive games is down-right pitiful, and that can't be blamed on anyone but hitting coach, Joe Vavra.
As of August 26th, the Twins offense as been absolutely offensive:
- Rank 11th in Batting Average (.248)
- Rank 14th in Home Runs (81)
- Rank 13th in Runs Batted In (458)
- Rank 13th in Extra Base Hits (311)
- Rank 13th in On-Base Percentage (.306)
- Rank 12th in Runs (347)
Looking at those numbers, regardless of injuries in the lineup, is shameful. Unfortunately, it appears that it's "OK" to produce that quality of play, given the lack of accountability.
Through July 20th, a total of four Major League hitting coaches had been relieved of their positions, including the American League West-leading Texas Rangers. At the time of Thad Bosley's firing on June 8th, the Rangers ranked second in the American League in Batting Average (.264) and second in Home Runs (72). The Twins currently have nine more home runs than Texas had...over two and a half months ago. The Rangers' batting average at that time was almost 20 points higher than that of the Twins...for the entire season.
The Rangers let Bosley go primarily because it appeared that his message had been lost. The players seemed to not respond to his coaching, and thus, a change needed to be made. At the time, the Rangers held a 2.5 game lead over the Seattle Mariners, and had gone 7-3 in their previous 10 games, yet, manager Ron Washington felt that it was a move that would improve his team overall. Fast forward to the here-and-now, and the Rangers hold a three-game lead over the Los Angeles Angels.
So, why is it that Joe Vavra remains untouchable, or more importantly, remains immune to accountability? Other hitting coaches have been held accountable for their teams' poor performances, so why hasn't he? The Indians, Dodgers, and Marlins joined the Rangers in dismissing their hitting coaches. Some of them had even better numbers than the Twins do currently, but it wasn't good enough for those organizations to keep them around. So, why is it good enough for the Twins?
Now, I'm not saying that it isn't difficult to coach players who are playing ahead of themselves. The Twins have had to play a number of not-ready-for-prime-time players this season. That's not something that's lost on me. However, there needs to be a line drawn in the sand, and there needs to at least be some action taken to show the Twins' faithful fans that this isn't something that is "OK" or that will be tolerated.
Vavra may be one of the nicest guys in baseball, as has been said many times by a number of different people close to the Twins and their players. But, just because you're a "nice guy" doesn't mean you're the "right guy" for the job. The blame can not fall solely on the players themselves. The definition of a coach, however, is to "train and instruct," or "give someone extra or private teaching." When a team looks as undisciplined at the plate as the Twins have looked this season, some instruction and/or extra teaching seems like it would be necessary.
Scoring only one run per game in five consecutive games is embarrassing, and there's no two ways about it. There are teams out there with far less talent than the Twins, namely teams like the Oakland A's or the Baltimore Orioles. Those teams have better numbers; hitting for higher averages driving in more runs. So, to say the reason is because the Twins don't have their best players in the lineup is a complete cop out, especially when lesser teams are making due with what they have.
What has always set the Twins apart from other teams is that they do things their own way, and don't always conform to the "norm" in baseball. There's no greater example than the fact that, different from any other team, they refuse to make the necessary coaching changes, and decide to make it a "player issue". The sooner they are honest with themselves, the sooner we can expect to be near the top of the American League again.
Monday, August 22, 2011
It's Time To Change It Up A Bit, Ron!
If you've been reading "The Sporting Mind" since I started blogging back in May, you know that I tend to not hold anything back with regard to the Twins. There isn't a team I root for more in sports than the Twins. I consider myself a die-hard fan. The great thing about being a fan is that you're entitled to opinions.
Opinions can be about anything, really. They can be about individual players or they can be about individual plays. They can be about aspects of the team, or just aspects of the game itself. Regardless of what the opinion is, we as fans are entitled to those opinions. They may not be right, they may not be wrong, but what they are is our voice.
As with anyone who follows a team, you have players you really like and some you just don't. If you've been reading this blog for a while now, you know that I was never a huge Delmon Young fan, and I'm definitely not pro-Tsuyoshi Nishioka. I've been very hard on the likes of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau, but have been very complimentary toward both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel. That being said, just because I might take issue with players like Mauer and Morneau doesn't mean I don't think either are good ball players, so let me be perfectly clear on that.
Now that I've gotten that out of the way...
As I watch the Twins' season quickly unravel, I start to wonder what the game plan actually is for these next six weeks. The team has been so ravaged by injuries that it's been difficult to get a good grasp on what they actually have going forward. Assuming the news on Monday that the Twins had placed both Kubel and Jim Thome on waivers means that neither will be back with the team next year, and assuming the Twins might not get anyone Major League ready in return should both be dealt, what do they have in store for DH and right field? With Nick Blackburn hitting the disabled list on Monday as well, who might they give an opportunity to replace him in the rotation? And, with the inconsistent play up the middle, might there be other options to fiddle with to try and put the pieces together to make a run next season?
It would be very difficult to get answers to all of these questions in just a few weeks. Realistically, the team has no chance to climb back into the divisional race, which should provide Ron Gardenhire a unique opportunity to experiment a bit with what he does have. As with any company, sometimes it's not so much about the personnel one has, but more about how that personnel is used and where that personnel is placed in order to get the most success from that individual.
So far this season, we've seen Cuddyer playing right field, first base, second base, and even pitch. We've seen Mauer take his first ground balls at first base, as well as his first fly balls in right field. Alexi Casilla made the move from short stop to second base, and Nishioka the reverse. These are the types of alternatives Gardenhire needs to continue exploring. Would Mauer potentially be able to play third base in the event he doesn't catch and Morneau is in the lineup at first? Does Danny Valencia have the necessary range to be a short stop? Might be worth a look.
Another thought would be to juggle the lineup a bit. Looking through all of baseball, it's clear that the major run producers throughout the league find themselves hitting third, fourth, or fifth in their team's lineup. Typically, these spots in the order are reserved for the big guns, the guys that hit the ball out of the park and drive in runs. With the Twins, however, this isn't always the case. Without taking away too much from Joe Mauer, it's evident that he is one of the best contact hitters in all of baseball. Unfortunately for Twins fans, it appears both Mauer and the team are content with a high average, but little "production". This isn't the type of hitter that belongs in the number three spot in the batting order. Again, that's not to say he isn't a great hitter, just not a great hitter for that spot in the order.
Looking at Mauer's numbers this season, and understanding that he was hurt early on, it is a concern going forward, at least for this Twins fan. If you compare the number of extra-base hits Mauer has and the frequency in which he has them to other hitters batting third in their respective lineups, you would see that he falls way behind the average. Joe slugs something other than a single once in every 17.86 at-bats. The top 20 run-producers (RBI's) in the American League average an extra-base hit once every 8.63 at-bats. Seven (7) of those top 20 hit from the third spot in their lineup. Those same 20 guys also average an RBI every 5.50 at-bats. Mauer's average? One RBI every 10.42 at-bats. A high batting average is great, but it doesn't always translate to runs if the majority of those hits are singles.
Taking those numbers into account, it might be worth an extended five-week look for Gardenhire to see what either Cuddyer (an RBI every 6.9 at-bats) or Kubel (one in every 6.62 at-bats) could do in that number three spot in the order, and perhaps move Mauer down to either the fifth or sixth spot in the batting order. If Denard Span is able to come back this year, and the Twins decide to play both Span and Ben Revere in the outfield, and bat the two of them first and second in the order, having either Cuddyer or Kubel hitting third might be a better thing, given their ability to hit more extra-base hits than Mauer. If Span and/or Revere get on base with a single, it's difficult for them to score on a Mauer single, which has been the tendency for Joe this season, which explains his minimal 25 RBI output thus far.
So, let me hear from a few of you out there. What are some other "experiments" you believe the Twins should try over the next few weeks to try and prepare themselves for an offseason of change?
So far this season, we've seen Cuddyer playing right field, first base, second base, and even pitch. We've seen Mauer take his first ground balls at first base, as well as his first fly balls in right field. Alexi Casilla made the move from short stop to second base, and Nishioka the reverse. These are the types of alternatives Gardenhire needs to continue exploring. Would Mauer potentially be able to play third base in the event he doesn't catch and Morneau is in the lineup at first? Does Danny Valencia have the necessary range to be a short stop? Might be worth a look.
Another thought would be to juggle the lineup a bit. Looking through all of baseball, it's clear that the major run producers throughout the league find themselves hitting third, fourth, or fifth in their team's lineup. Typically, these spots in the order are reserved for the big guns, the guys that hit the ball out of the park and drive in runs. With the Twins, however, this isn't always the case. Without taking away too much from Joe Mauer, it's evident that he is one of the best contact hitters in all of baseball. Unfortunately for Twins fans, it appears both Mauer and the team are content with a high average, but little "production". This isn't the type of hitter that belongs in the number three spot in the batting order. Again, that's not to say he isn't a great hitter, just not a great hitter for that spot in the order.
Looking at Mauer's numbers this season, and understanding that he was hurt early on, it is a concern going forward, at least for this Twins fan. If you compare the number of extra-base hits Mauer has and the frequency in which he has them to other hitters batting third in their respective lineups, you would see that he falls way behind the average. Joe slugs something other than a single once in every 17.86 at-bats. The top 20 run-producers (RBI's) in the American League average an extra-base hit once every 8.63 at-bats. Seven (7) of those top 20 hit from the third spot in their lineup. Those same 20 guys also average an RBI every 5.50 at-bats. Mauer's average? One RBI every 10.42 at-bats. A high batting average is great, but it doesn't always translate to runs if the majority of those hits are singles.
Taking those numbers into account, it might be worth an extended five-week look for Gardenhire to see what either Cuddyer (an RBI every 6.9 at-bats) or Kubel (one in every 6.62 at-bats) could do in that number three spot in the order, and perhaps move Mauer down to either the fifth or sixth spot in the batting order. If Denard Span is able to come back this year, and the Twins decide to play both Span and Ben Revere in the outfield, and bat the two of them first and second in the order, having either Cuddyer or Kubel hitting third might be a better thing, given their ability to hit more extra-base hits than Mauer. If Span and/or Revere get on base with a single, it's difficult for them to score on a Mauer single, which has been the tendency for Joe this season, which explains his minimal 25 RBI output thus far.
So, let me hear from a few of you out there. What are some other "experiments" you believe the Twins should try over the next few weeks to try and prepare themselves for an offseason of change?
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