162 games.
There is no lengthier season in professional sports than that of Major League Baseball. Starting at the beginning of April (or sometimes the last day of March), the season begins. It comes to an end on or around the last day of September. That's six months.
For those people who are not true fans of the game, 162 games seems excessive. It seems like overkill. For those that are not true fans of the game, shortening the season sounds like a brilliant idea. After all, the games at the beginning of the season really don't matter, it's just the ones at the end that make the difference.
Tell that to the Atlanta Braves, who lost a "meaningless" game on April 21st to the Los Angeles Dodgers, losing in the 12th inning after blowing a one-run lead in the ninth.
Tell that to the Boston Red Sox, who started their 2011 season 2-10 in April, finally getting themselves back on their typical track.
Tell it to both the Braves and Red Sox, who saw their 2011 seasons come crashing down on the final day of the regular season. Game 162.
Believe it or not, they all matter!
I've been a baseball fan since I was probably about six years old. As a kid, you dream about playing baseball in the big leagues. Some of my fondest memories are of playing catch in the backyard with my father. I remember pitching in grade school, looking off to the side and seeing my grandfather leaning against a tree, watching me. It's personal memories like that which make baseball such a special sports.
My first real memory of dramatic baseball came during the 1986 World Series. I was just starting to truly understand the game and what it meant. Being only eight years old, I had no real comprehension of what that World Series meant to the Boston Red Sox. When I saw the Red Sox lose Game 6 after Bob Stanley blew a save opportunity, leading to the infamous Bill Buckner error, I knew something dramatic and memorable had just happened, and I was hooked! It wasn't until years later that I truly understood the significance of that moment.
I had the great fortune of being in attendance at the Metrodome for the 1987 World Series, to see the Minnesota Twins win their first of two World Series championships. I've never heard a building louder. I was only nine years old at the time, but I knew that what I had just seen was something so unprecedented, so "special", that I figured out; only baseball could provide moments like that.
I remember spending a fall evening in October of 1988 at my grandparents' house. I got ready for bed early so I could just lay in bed in the spare room and watch Game One of the 1988 World Series. The Oakland A's, by all accounts, should have made quick work of the Los Angeles Dodgers. But, a funny, amazing thing happened as I was laying there watching the game, even more amazing to me than the '87 series. A hobbled, injured Kirk Gibson hit an improbable walk-off, two-run home run in the bottom of the ninth off A's closer Dennis Eckersley, who was absolutely untouchable during the regular season. As a ten year-old, I'd never felt goosebumps like that.
In 1991, the Twins reached the World Series again, and once again, I was lucky enough to be there for all four games. I'm 13 years old now, and seem to already have a wealth of baseball history in me just in the past fives years. And yet, it's about to get even deeper. An amazing jumping catch against the plexi-glass wall in left center by Kirby Puckett, followed by a storybook walk-off home run in the 11th inning of Game 6 by Kirby himself sends the Twins and Braves into a Game 7. There was no way to top the emotion from Game 6. Not a chance anything could be more exciting than that!
Wrong. Game 7 proved to be, what I still consider, the greatest baseball game ever played. A game with everything riding on it, with a "win or go home" finale assured. There would be no tomorrow. Twins pitcher, Jack Morris, took to the mound for one of the most amazing, guttiest pitching performances in the history of Major League Baseball; a 10-inning, 1-0 Twins victory, giving them their second World Series title in five seasons. In a word: Epic!
Over the last 20 years of my baseball-watching life, I've seen some amazing things happen, both live and on television. I've seen a World Series clinching walk-off homer by Toronto's Joe Carter in Game 6 of the '93 World Series. I watched the drama unfold in 1998 when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa chased down Roger Maris's home run record of 61, with McGwire breaking it first. I saw the Arizona Diamondbacks break the unbreakable Mariano Rivera to win the 2001 World Series in Game 7. Seeing the 2004 Red Sox exercise their 86 year-old demons and win their first World Series since 1918. I was in attendance at the Metrodome once more in 2009 for Game 163, a one-game playoff between the Twins and Detroit Tigers in which the Twins won a back-and-forth game in extra-innings on a walk-off single to advance to the playoffs.
I've seen quite a bit in my lifetime so far. However, nothing I've seen rivaled what I saw Wednesday night. Four teams; the Cardinals and Braves in the National League, and the Red Sox and Rays in the American League. Two playoff spots; the Wild Cards. One winner. A season where 161 games all led up to this night. Game 162.
The Cardinals made quick work of the Houston Astros, doing their part for the night, leaving it up to Atlanta to decide whether they'd be playing in the post season, or playing a one-game playoff against the Braves on Thursday. Atlanta led Philadelphia 3-2 entering the ninth inning.
The Red Sox, needing a win and a Tampa Bay loss to secure the Wild Card, led 3-2 in the seventh inning before a rain delay kept them waiting, and watching, what was happening in Tampa.
The Rays trailed the Yankees 7-0 entering the bottom of the eighth inning. Many fans in attendance had already left as it seemed an insurmountable lead to overcome. They just needed to hope the Red Sox choked, as they'd been doing throughout September, in order to play a 163rd game on Thursday.
As the Cardinals watched from their clubhouse, the Braves proceeded to blow their one-run lead, allowing the Phillies to tie the game in the top of the ninth, ultimately sending them into extra-innings in Atlanta. As this was happening, the Rays began mounting a minor assault on the Yankees, scoring three runs in the bottom of the eighth, allowing Evan Longoria to come to the plate with two runners on. Longoria hit the first pitch he saw into the left-center field stands for a three-run homer, bringing the Rays to within one at 7-6. The Red Sox could only sit and watch as the rain fell in Baltimore.
Once their game resumed, the Red Sox attempted to hold their 3-2 lead, learning that the Rays had just tied their game with the Yankees at 7-7 with a two-out, two-strike, pinch-hit home run by Dan Johnson, a guy who hadn't hit a home run since April. The Red Sox entered the ninth inning leading 3-2.
As the drama unfolded in both Baltimore and Tampa, the Braves succumbed to the pressure of the moment first, allowing a run in the top of the 13th inning, and falling to the Phillies 4-3. The Cardinals were going to be the National League Wild Card winners.
Back in Baltimore, the Orioles start the bottom of the ninth trailing 3-2, facing the ever-intimidating Jonathan Papelbon. After their first two hitters struck out, the Orioles get a double, ground-rule double, and a single from the next three hitters to win the game 4-3, sending the Red Sox into waiting mode to find out if the Yankees could beat the Rays to create the need for a one-game playoff on Thursday.
Boston wouldn't be waiting long. Within three minutes of the Red Sox losing, Evan Longoria comes to the plate for Tampa Bay with one out in the bottom of the 12th inning, and lines the 2-2 pitch over the wall in left field for a walk-off, Wild Card-clinching 8-7 victory.
The drama within those 90 minutes was, as far as I'm concerned, unmatched in baseball. Having all four games taking place at the same time, having two of the four go into extra-innings, having three teams (Braves, Red Sox, and Yankees) all blow ninth-inning saves with two-outs, having three incredible clutch home runs hit by Tampa Bay in the 8th, 9th, and 12th innings...having it all happen within 90 minutes, on the last day of the regular season. Words can hardly describe it and give it justice.
If you're somebody who thinks the regular season is too long, and that baseball is boring, there are some people that might agree with you. For me, however, I couldn't imagine it being any other way. Wednesday night WAS baseball. Nights like that may not happen often, or ever, for that matter. But, when they do, they're nights you will always remember!
Thursday, September 29, 2011
Monday, September 26, 2011
This Twins Downfall Started In 2007
With the Twins' season coming to a close this week, there have been some positive discussions and quite a few negative ones. To be fair, I've been one who has chosen to see more of the negative aspects of this club than the positives, after all, there have been almost twice as many. We've beat the injury excuse to death already. I've hinted that perhaps it's the coaching staff who should be to blame, although I'm beginning to back off that idea a little bit. Just this past week, I heard the ultimate reason for the Twins demise this season: The Curse of Wally The Beer-Man.
In all reality, the Twins' demise this season, their ineptitude in postseasons of the past, and the potential struggles yet to come in future seasons, can be traced back to one fateful day back in September of 2007. It was then that Mr. Bill Smith accepted a promotion from Vice President, Assistant General Manager to Terry Ryan to become the new Senior Vice President, General Manager of the Minnesota Twins.
Smith was immediately handed a difficult task: Finding a way to either keep center-fielder Torii Hunter and two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana, or to make the most out of their departure. It was clear from the start that it would be impossible to hold on to both players. Hunter was a free agent after the 2007 season, and Santana would be after the 2008 campaign. If Smith opted to throw the necessary money at Hunter to keep him, then Santana would be lost. If he decided to let Hunter go and focus his attention on Santana, he'd risk losing both without getting anything.
The Twins made an offer to Hunter in August of 2007; a three-year, $45 million offer. The offer was made by then GM Terry Ryan. Smith took over the reigns in mid-September as the GM, and failed to make another offer. Whether it was something lost in the shuffle of the transition, or just a decision that they couldn't go any higher, the Twins lost Hunter to the Los Angeles Angels for a five-year, $90 million contract. Although disappointing to lose someone of Hunter's character and talent, it opened the door for Smith and the Twins to focus their attention on keeping the best pitcher in baseball, Santana.
Smith turned his attention to Santana, knowing it would either be a "re-sign him or trade him" outcome. The club offered him a five-year, $96 million deal. Santana's people countered with a seven-year, $126 million deal. It quickly became clear that Santana's price would be too high, and the club's best chance would be to trade Santana and get some good value in return. In hindsight, Santana has missed the entire 2011 season and part of the 2010 season with elbow injuries, so signing him may have proved to be a mistake, however, I'm not sure that mistake would compare to the colossal blunder that was about to happen.
Deciding to trade Santana, the Twins put everyone on notice, entertaining offers from the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox. As you would expect they would, the Yankees and Red Sox began battling with each other to try and land Santana. The Dodgers, seeing what the Sox and Yankees were offering, quickly decided to pull out of the running. Smith had exactly what he should've wanted: a bidding war of sorts between the Yankees and Red Sox. First the Red Sox upped their offer, and then the Yankees threw in another stud, which caused the Sox to make another change. In the end, the offers sat there for a couple weeks.
They sat until Smith had done the impossible. He'd actually annoyed the Yankees enough by not making a decision that they'd lost interest and pulled their best offer off the table. That offer included outfielder Melky Cabrera and pitcher Phil Hughes. That left the Red Sox and Mets. The Red Sox began to lose interest, as well, having waited long enough for an answer. Smith continued to push them for more and more, even after they'd improved their original offer dramatically. In the end, the Red Sox offered a trade with one of two centerpieces: either left-handed pitcher Jon Lester, or center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, coupled with two young prospects, pitcher Justin Masterson and infielder Jed Lowrie. Smith asked for all four. The Red Sox said no. So, Smith did the only thing he could do.
He accepted the Mets offer.
The Mets offered outfielder Carlos Gomez and three pitchers; Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Gomez had played a few games for the Mets in 2007 and showed some promise, but was very rough around the edges. The three pitchers had little to no big league experience, and would be projects. Hindsight, again, is always 20/20, but taking a look at the cornerstone players involved in the deals with Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets since 2008 (the year they would've been Twins), it's clear that Smith's run as General Manager of the Twins would be nothing short of disappointing.
If you want more proof, here you go:
In all reality, the Twins' demise this season, their ineptitude in postseasons of the past, and the potential struggles yet to come in future seasons, can be traced back to one fateful day back in September of 2007. It was then that Mr. Bill Smith accepted a promotion from Vice President, Assistant General Manager to Terry Ryan to become the new Senior Vice President, General Manager of the Minnesota Twins.
Smith was immediately handed a difficult task: Finding a way to either keep center-fielder Torii Hunter and two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana, or to make the most out of their departure. It was clear from the start that it would be impossible to hold on to both players. Hunter was a free agent after the 2007 season, and Santana would be after the 2008 campaign. If Smith opted to throw the necessary money at Hunter to keep him, then Santana would be lost. If he decided to let Hunter go and focus his attention on Santana, he'd risk losing both without getting anything.
The Twins made an offer to Hunter in August of 2007; a three-year, $45 million offer. The offer was made by then GM Terry Ryan. Smith took over the reigns in mid-September as the GM, and failed to make another offer. Whether it was something lost in the shuffle of the transition, or just a decision that they couldn't go any higher, the Twins lost Hunter to the Los Angeles Angels for a five-year, $90 million contract. Although disappointing to lose someone of Hunter's character and talent, it opened the door for Smith and the Twins to focus their attention on keeping the best pitcher in baseball, Santana.
Smith turned his attention to Santana, knowing it would either be a "re-sign him or trade him" outcome. The club offered him a five-year, $96 million deal. Santana's people countered with a seven-year, $126 million deal. It quickly became clear that Santana's price would be too high, and the club's best chance would be to trade Santana and get some good value in return. In hindsight, Santana has missed the entire 2011 season and part of the 2010 season with elbow injuries, so signing him may have proved to be a mistake, however, I'm not sure that mistake would compare to the colossal blunder that was about to happen.
Deciding to trade Santana, the Twins put everyone on notice, entertaining offers from the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox. As you would expect they would, the Yankees and Red Sox began battling with each other to try and land Santana. The Dodgers, seeing what the Sox and Yankees were offering, quickly decided to pull out of the running. Smith had exactly what he should've wanted: a bidding war of sorts between the Yankees and Red Sox. First the Red Sox upped their offer, and then the Yankees threw in another stud, which caused the Sox to make another change. In the end, the offers sat there for a couple weeks.
They sat until Smith had done the impossible. He'd actually annoyed the Yankees enough by not making a decision that they'd lost interest and pulled their best offer off the table. That offer included outfielder Melky Cabrera and pitcher Phil Hughes. That left the Red Sox and Mets. The Red Sox began to lose interest, as well, having waited long enough for an answer. Smith continued to push them for more and more, even after they'd improved their original offer dramatically. In the end, the Red Sox offered a trade with one of two centerpieces: either left-handed pitcher Jon Lester, or center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, coupled with two young prospects, pitcher Justin Masterson and infielder Jed Lowrie. Smith asked for all four. The Red Sox said no. So, Smith did the only thing he could do.
He accepted the Mets offer.
The Mets offered outfielder Carlos Gomez and three pitchers; Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey. Gomez had played a few games for the Mets in 2007 and showed some promise, but was very rough around the edges. The three pitchers had little to no big league experience, and would be projects. Hindsight, again, is always 20/20, but taking a look at the cornerstone players involved in the deals with Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets since 2008 (the year they would've been Twins), it's clear that Smith's run as General Manager of the Twins would be nothing short of disappointing.
| Jacoby Ellsbury | Melky Cabrera | Carlos Gomez | ||||
| Avg | .298 | .274 | .244 | |||
| AB | 1902 | 2012 | 1412 | |||
| H | 566 | 552 | 344 | |||
| HR | 48 | 43 | 22 | |||
| RBI | 215 | 234 | 132 | |||
| XBH | 168 | 164 | 101 | |||
| SB | 165 | 46 | 81 | |||
| Justin Masterson | Phil Hughes | Philip Humber | ||||
| G | 146 | 105 | 48 | |||
| W | 28 | 31 | 11 | |||
| L | 38 | 20 | 10 | |||
| ERA | 3.92 | 4.49 | 4.05 | |||
| IP | 613.2 | 369.1 | 202.2 | |||
| SO | 485 | 310 | 138 | |||
| BB | 238 | 125 | 58 |
If you want more proof, here you go:
- November 29th, 2007: Smith trades pitcher Matt Garza (career 51-54, 3.84 ERA, 761 SO) and SS Jason Bartlett (career .275, 31 HR, 282 RBI) to Tampa Bay for outfielder Delmon Young (career .287, 69 HR, 402 RBI) and SS Brendan Harris (career .260, 29 HR, 158 RBI). Although this trade happened before the Santana trade, it's significance wasn't known until the Twins failed to acquire a legit replacement for Santana at the top of the rotation. Garza had potential to be a top tier starter, and proved so in Tampa Bay's run to the World Series in 2008.
- December 9th, 2010: Smith trades SS J.J. Hardy (who was acquired a year earlier from Milwaukee for Carlos Gomez) and SS Brendan Harris (who was acquired for Garza and Young) and $500,000 to Baltimore for pitcher Brett Jacobson and relief pitcher Jim Hoey. The move was made to clear room, both under the cap and on the field, for the Twins to bring in SS Tsuoyshi Nishioka from Japan. No need to say anything more on that.
- July 29th, 2010: Smith trades prized catching prospect Wilson Ramos to the Washington Nationals for closer Matt Capps. With Joe Nathan missing the entire 2010 season with Tommy John surgery, it was important for the Twins to get someone to seal up games at the end. Although his 2011 was less than desired, Capps filled the critical role perfectly last season. The issue with this deal, you ask? With the health of Joe Mauer a question even last season, to trade a valuable back-up catching option like Ramos for a closer in the heat of the moment was a terrible decision. To put it in perspective, Ramos' 2011 season: .269, 15 HR, 52 RBI, 38 XBH, and a On Base+Slugging % of .784. The Twins two back-up catchers, Drew Butera and Rene Rivera combined in 2011: .160, 3 HR, 28 RBI, 16 XBH, and a combined On Base+Slugging % of .436. A decision that no doubt affected the Twins this season.
Unfortunately for Twins fans, I don't think we've seen the last of Mr. Smith. This offseason will prove to be an interesting one, to say the least.
Thursday, September 22, 2011
The Twins Cannot Repeat History
After reading a great article from Star Tribune sports writer Patrick Reusse ("This has all the earmarks of a lengthy Twins dive"), I realized how familiar this Twins season is becoming. Reusse is spot on with his observations, and quite honestly, it's scary to truly see the similarities between the Twins of the mid-90's and the current iteration.
Hopefully, however, this current version of the Twins, both players and front office alike, will learn from the mistakes of their predecessors, and re-write history.
As fans, we have to believe that what we're seeing in 2011 is nothing more than the anomaly. The debacle that has been the 2011 season is nothing more than a season filled with incredibly bad luck, right? I mean, the injury issues alone couldn't reproduce themselves again in 2012, could they? There's really no way possible that the Twins big guns can't get back to their usual MVP selves, is there?
The problem is that, unless the organization decides to be proactive and do something, what Reusse speaks about will become gospel in 2012 and beyond. So, what can the team realistically do?
For starters, let's assume the major injuries of 2011 resolve themselves this offseason. Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Denard Span will all be back at 100% at the start of Spring Training. Let's just pretend, for a moment, that the Twins are able to re-sign both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel to solidify the core of the lineup, as well as come to terms with Joe Nathan on a multi-year deal that will enable Joe to end his career with the Twins, as it appears he wants to do. And lastly, let's also say, for argument's sake, that the banged up starting rotation returns from their myriad of arm issues. Assuming all of these things, where are the areas for the Twins to make significant changes to ensure that 2011 was nothing more than a minor speed bump?
One glaring hole needing immediate resolution going into the 2012 season is the middle infield, specifically the shortstop position. After choosing to not bring back J.J. Hardy after the 2010 season in favor of the unknown and unproven Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the Twins took a major step back. Oddly enough, the Twins front office felt Hardy's injury problems were too much to invest another year in, opting instead to let him go in trade to the Orioles. Should they feel the same way about most of the injured 2011 roster, we may be in complete rebuilding mode. In 2009, the Twins made a late-season trade to acquire Orlando Cabrera to bring some veteran stability to an important position, but decided his price tag was too high for 2010, instead signing Hardy. The problematic pattern presenting itself in this case seems that the Twins are unwilling to pay for stability at a very important position. The current options at shortstop are Trevor Plouffe and Nishioka. Plouffe has shown some signs of being a viable offensive solution at short, but his defense leaves quite a bit to be desired. Nishioka needs a major overhaul, both offensively and defensively. Until that happens, "Nishy" should be relegated to nothing but utility duty. Finding a solid veteran shortstop, either through trade or on the free agent market, should be a priority for the Twins to give themselves at least a couple of options going into spring.
Another hole needing attention is that of the bullpen. Middle relief was a major hurdle to overcome for this squad, particularly from the likes of Jose Mijares and Alex Burnett. Combined, the two relievers had an ERA near 5.00, striking out 61 batters while walking 51. Not the poster children for reliability, that's for sure. Mijares lost his late inning specialty role to Glen Perkins, who was seemingly the only bright spot in the bullpen this season. The middle relief roles, both right and left-handed, occupied by Burnett and Mijares respectively, need to be re-cast. Given the free agent market for relief pitchers in 2012, this might have to occur through trade. Regardless of how it gets done, the Twins need to address this pressing issue before pitchers and catchers report in February.
The last area needing to be seriously looked at in order to avoid a long spell of sub-par seasons is one which wasn't considered back in 1993. It's not an easy option to consider, but it should be something at least discussed. That option is a change in the coaching staff. Back in 1993, Tom Kelly was in his seventh full season as the manager of the Twins. It was hard to argue with two World Series titles in five seasons, so it seemed understandable that a change at the helm didn't need to be made right away. The coaches, however, could've possibly been shaken up a bit. With Tony Olivia retiring as the Twins' hitting coach after the 1991 season, Terry Crowley took over. Again, it might've seemed a bit rash to replace Crowley after only two season as the team's hitting instructor. Dick Such remained the team's pitching coach through the 2000 season. It's possible that a change there might have sparked something with the pitching staff, but it's difficult to say.
Fast forward to 2011, and we have a different coaching scenario than we had back in 1993, when the run of losing seasons began for the Twins. Now, we have two members of the coaching staff, hitting coach Joe Vavra, and pitching coach Rick Anderson, who have been in their positions six and eleven years, respectively. With the exception of an increase between 2007 into 2008, the Twins, as a team, have seen declines in batting average, hits, and runs under Vavra. Vavra is the second-longest tenured hitting coach in all of baseball, behind only Mickey Hatcher of the Los Angeles Angels. Similarly, Anderson has the third longest tenure amongst pitching coaches behind Dave Duncan of the Cardinals and Dave Righetti of the Giants. Before things get too out of hand, as they did in 1993, it may be wise for the Twins front office to decide to take the leadership of the team into a different direction.
2012 does not need to be the "end of the world" for the Twins, pun intended. It will only end up that way if the team decides to allow it to happen. Let's hope, for the sake of the players and fans, the decision is to erase 2011 from our memories by repeating the feat of the 1991 team, that being to finish in last place the year before contending for the title.
Hopefully, however, this current version of the Twins, both players and front office alike, will learn from the mistakes of their predecessors, and re-write history.
As fans, we have to believe that what we're seeing in 2011 is nothing more than the anomaly. The debacle that has been the 2011 season is nothing more than a season filled with incredibly bad luck, right? I mean, the injury issues alone couldn't reproduce themselves again in 2012, could they? There's really no way possible that the Twins big guns can't get back to their usual MVP selves, is there?
The problem is that, unless the organization decides to be proactive and do something, what Reusse speaks about will become gospel in 2012 and beyond. So, what can the team realistically do?
For starters, let's assume the major injuries of 2011 resolve themselves this offseason. Justin Morneau, Joe Mauer, and Denard Span will all be back at 100% at the start of Spring Training. Let's just pretend, for a moment, that the Twins are able to re-sign both Michael Cuddyer and Jason Kubel to solidify the core of the lineup, as well as come to terms with Joe Nathan on a multi-year deal that will enable Joe to end his career with the Twins, as it appears he wants to do. And lastly, let's also say, for argument's sake, that the banged up starting rotation returns from their myriad of arm issues. Assuming all of these things, where are the areas for the Twins to make significant changes to ensure that 2011 was nothing more than a minor speed bump?
One glaring hole needing immediate resolution going into the 2012 season is the middle infield, specifically the shortstop position. After choosing to not bring back J.J. Hardy after the 2010 season in favor of the unknown and unproven Tsuyoshi Nishioka, the Twins took a major step back. Oddly enough, the Twins front office felt Hardy's injury problems were too much to invest another year in, opting instead to let him go in trade to the Orioles. Should they feel the same way about most of the injured 2011 roster, we may be in complete rebuilding mode. In 2009, the Twins made a late-season trade to acquire Orlando Cabrera to bring some veteran stability to an important position, but decided his price tag was too high for 2010, instead signing Hardy. The problematic pattern presenting itself in this case seems that the Twins are unwilling to pay for stability at a very important position. The current options at shortstop are Trevor Plouffe and Nishioka. Plouffe has shown some signs of being a viable offensive solution at short, but his defense leaves quite a bit to be desired. Nishioka needs a major overhaul, both offensively and defensively. Until that happens, "Nishy" should be relegated to nothing but utility duty. Finding a solid veteran shortstop, either through trade or on the free agent market, should be a priority for the Twins to give themselves at least a couple of options going into spring.
Another hole needing attention is that of the bullpen. Middle relief was a major hurdle to overcome for this squad, particularly from the likes of Jose Mijares and Alex Burnett. Combined, the two relievers had an ERA near 5.00, striking out 61 batters while walking 51. Not the poster children for reliability, that's for sure. Mijares lost his late inning specialty role to Glen Perkins, who was seemingly the only bright spot in the bullpen this season. The middle relief roles, both right and left-handed, occupied by Burnett and Mijares respectively, need to be re-cast. Given the free agent market for relief pitchers in 2012, this might have to occur through trade. Regardless of how it gets done, the Twins need to address this pressing issue before pitchers and catchers report in February.
The last area needing to be seriously looked at in order to avoid a long spell of sub-par seasons is one which wasn't considered back in 1993. It's not an easy option to consider, but it should be something at least discussed. That option is a change in the coaching staff. Back in 1993, Tom Kelly was in his seventh full season as the manager of the Twins. It was hard to argue with two World Series titles in five seasons, so it seemed understandable that a change at the helm didn't need to be made right away. The coaches, however, could've possibly been shaken up a bit. With Tony Olivia retiring as the Twins' hitting coach after the 1991 season, Terry Crowley took over. Again, it might've seemed a bit rash to replace Crowley after only two season as the team's hitting instructor. Dick Such remained the team's pitching coach through the 2000 season. It's possible that a change there might have sparked something with the pitching staff, but it's difficult to say.
Fast forward to 2011, and we have a different coaching scenario than we had back in 1993, when the run of losing seasons began for the Twins. Now, we have two members of the coaching staff, hitting coach Joe Vavra, and pitching coach Rick Anderson, who have been in their positions six and eleven years, respectively. With the exception of an increase between 2007 into 2008, the Twins, as a team, have seen declines in batting average, hits, and runs under Vavra. Vavra is the second-longest tenured hitting coach in all of baseball, behind only Mickey Hatcher of the Los Angeles Angels. Similarly, Anderson has the third longest tenure amongst pitching coaches behind Dave Duncan of the Cardinals and Dave Righetti of the Giants. Before things get too out of hand, as they did in 1993, it may be wise for the Twins front office to decide to take the leadership of the team into a different direction.
2012 does not need to be the "end of the world" for the Twins, pun intended. It will only end up that way if the team decides to allow it to happen. Let's hope, for the sake of the players and fans, the decision is to erase 2011 from our memories by repeating the feat of the 1991 team, that being to finish in last place the year before contending for the title.
Tuesday, September 13, 2011
Twins Face Tough, But Necessary Choices
Since this is a topic I've already covered once within the last month, I'll try to keep it a little short this time around.
With the Twins being shut out for a 13th time this season, there is a question that needs to, not only be asked, but quite frankly, one that needs to be answered sooner rather than later. That question is: Who will be held accountable for the Twins' offensive struggles this season?
I've contended for most of the season, even before the offense went from mediocre to sub-par, that the Twins' front office needs to take a serious look at changing some of the major "players" in order to make a significant change going into 2012. When I say "players," I'm not referring to those that take the field on a day-to-day basis (or a day-to-every-third-day basis, as is the case with one Mr. Mauer). I'm referring to the coaching staff. As the saying goes, the definition of "insanity" is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. With the Twins scoring one run or fewer for the 40th time this season, I would say that constitutes doing the same thing over and over again and waiting for a different result, wouldn't you?
Quite honestly, the three coaches who have the most impact on the team itself are pitching coach Rick Anderson, hitting coach Joe Vavra, and the manager himself, Ron Gardenhire. In any organization, sports or otherwise, when the employees are unable to get the job done, the "bosses" are looked upon to determine if the proper training and coaching was given to allow them to succeed. If the answer is yes, then the employees are let go and replaced. If the answer is no, the boss is deemed to be inadequate, and often times replaced.
Take a department store, for example. When a particular department is not succeeding, the Store Manager would look at the supervisor of that department to determine if he/she has been giving their employees everything they need to be successful. If they have, the Manager would ask the the employee be fired. If the Manager deemed that the supervisor was not providing the best leadership to those employees, then it would be the supervisor who would find him or herself replaced.
What Gardenhire needs to do is take a long, hard look at his staff. That look needs to take into account the overall season's performances, and not allow personal friendships to interfere. After all, this team is actually a "business". What he needs to realize is that, although they may have been great at getting results in the past, their message may now be stale. The results both Vavra and Anderson attained in years past may have ultimately been the pinnacle of what they were capable of attaining. It may just be time for someone else to take over the reigns to take this team a little further going forward.
As with any sport, the goal is to win. Plain and simple. As with many sports, that goal is attained by outscoring your opponents. In football, if a team gives up 40 points, but scores 45, they win the game. In hockey, if a team gives up five goals, but scores seven, guess what? It's still a win. The same theory can, and should, be applied to baseball. Unless you are a team fortunate to have the likes of a Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia, or a Felix Hernandez at the top of your rotation, the likelihood of you needing only a run or two to outscore your opponent is slim to none.
That being said, it would be imperative for a team like the Twins, with the inconsistent track record of their pitching staff, to put an emphasis on the offensive side of the ball. This season, the Twins have more games of four or fewer hits (20) than any other team in baseball. How have the Twins decided to address this issue thus far? They've decided to fire both Tom Nieto and Floyd Rayford, their Triple-A manager and hitting coach. But those 20 games of four or fewer hits took place at the Major League level, not Rochester. Of those 20 games, the big four of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Kubel each played in at least nine, so, to say that the lack of hits came as a result of the injury bug would be a stretch, considering even the "big guns" were unable to hit their ways on base.
The Twins' front office needs to consult Gardenhire and allow him to make the correct decision for the ball club, which is to remove Joe Vavra from his position as the hitting coach of this team. Vavra has served the team well over his almost six years as hitting coach, but as with many things, it's time to move on. If Gardnhire is unwilling to make that difficult decision, or doesn't see it as an option, then perhaps the front office needs to look long and hard and making a different change; that being at the managerial position.
With the Twins being shut out for a 13th time this season, there is a question that needs to, not only be asked, but quite frankly, one that needs to be answered sooner rather than later. That question is: Who will be held accountable for the Twins' offensive struggles this season?
I've contended for most of the season, even before the offense went from mediocre to sub-par, that the Twins' front office needs to take a serious look at changing some of the major "players" in order to make a significant change going into 2012. When I say "players," I'm not referring to those that take the field on a day-to-day basis (or a day-to-every-third-day basis, as is the case with one Mr. Mauer). I'm referring to the coaching staff. As the saying goes, the definition of "insanity" is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result. With the Twins scoring one run or fewer for the 40th time this season, I would say that constitutes doing the same thing over and over again and waiting for a different result, wouldn't you?
Quite honestly, the three coaches who have the most impact on the team itself are pitching coach Rick Anderson, hitting coach Joe Vavra, and the manager himself, Ron Gardenhire. In any organization, sports or otherwise, when the employees are unable to get the job done, the "bosses" are looked upon to determine if the proper training and coaching was given to allow them to succeed. If the answer is yes, then the employees are let go and replaced. If the answer is no, the boss is deemed to be inadequate, and often times replaced.
Take a department store, for example. When a particular department is not succeeding, the Store Manager would look at the supervisor of that department to determine if he/she has been giving their employees everything they need to be successful. If they have, the Manager would ask the the employee be fired. If the Manager deemed that the supervisor was not providing the best leadership to those employees, then it would be the supervisor who would find him or herself replaced.
What Gardenhire needs to do is take a long, hard look at his staff. That look needs to take into account the overall season's performances, and not allow personal friendships to interfere. After all, this team is actually a "business". What he needs to realize is that, although they may have been great at getting results in the past, their message may now be stale. The results both Vavra and Anderson attained in years past may have ultimately been the pinnacle of what they were capable of attaining. It may just be time for someone else to take over the reigns to take this team a little further going forward.
As with any sport, the goal is to win. Plain and simple. As with many sports, that goal is attained by outscoring your opponents. In football, if a team gives up 40 points, but scores 45, they win the game. In hockey, if a team gives up five goals, but scores seven, guess what? It's still a win. The same theory can, and should, be applied to baseball. Unless you are a team fortunate to have the likes of a Roy Halladay, Justin Verlander, C.C. Sabathia, or a Felix Hernandez at the top of your rotation, the likelihood of you needing only a run or two to outscore your opponent is slim to none.
That being said, it would be imperative for a team like the Twins, with the inconsistent track record of their pitching staff, to put an emphasis on the offensive side of the ball. This season, the Twins have more games of four or fewer hits (20) than any other team in baseball. How have the Twins decided to address this issue thus far? They've decided to fire both Tom Nieto and Floyd Rayford, their Triple-A manager and hitting coach. But those 20 games of four or fewer hits took place at the Major League level, not Rochester. Of those 20 games, the big four of Mauer, Morneau, Cuddyer, and Kubel each played in at least nine, so, to say that the lack of hits came as a result of the injury bug would be a stretch, considering even the "big guns" were unable to hit their ways on base.
The Twins' front office needs to consult Gardenhire and allow him to make the correct decision for the ball club, which is to remove Joe Vavra from his position as the hitting coach of this team. Vavra has served the team well over his almost six years as hitting coach, but as with many things, it's time to move on. If Gardnhire is unwilling to make that difficult decision, or doesn't see it as an option, then perhaps the front office needs to look long and hard and making a different change; that being at the managerial position.
Sunday, September 11, 2011
Championship Ingredients Aren't Always The Same
"Defense wins championships."
It's been said so often with regard to sports that it's hard to pinpoint where the quote actually originated. In fact, it's almost become the biggest sports cliche around. Preventing the opposition from scoring seems like the most important aspect of any game. Unfortunately, what people fail to realize when taking this approach is one very simple thing:
You yourself still need to score in order to win the game.
Regardless of the sport, statistics don't always tell the entire story. Looking at the final score of a baseball game that ended 1-0, you might surmise that the team which was shut out more than likely failed to get on base. However, what you don't see by the score is that the team scoring the one run had only one hit, a solo home run, that led to the only run of the game, while the losing team gathered 10 hits, but couldn't score. The score itself doesn't tell the whole story.
Or, for the purposes of this post, take the recently started NFL season as an example. More specifically, the opening game of the 2011 season between the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers and the 2009 champs, the New Orleans Saints. The highly anticipated season opener lived up to the hype, with two high-powered offenses shooting it out to the tune of a 42-34 final score, in favor of the Packers. Within minutes after the final gun sounded, many people began questioning the defending champ's defense, having allowed 34 points.
Again, the final score itself doesn't tell the whole story.
Of the last 10 Super Bowl Champions, five had at least one game during their championship season in which they allowed more than 30 points on defense, with the 2007 New York Giants having allowed 30 or more points in four games during their '07 campaign. Along those same lines, three of the last five Super Bowl winners ('06 Colts, '07 Giants, '09 Saints) allowed over 20 points per game.
Why do I bring this up? Of the 34 points allowed Thursday night by the Packers, only 27 came against their defense, with the other touchdown coming in the form of a punt return. Over the last five years, those same three Super Bowl winning teams ('06 Colts, '07 Giants, '09 Saints) allowed a combined eight (8) 30+ point offensive performances from their opponents, yet still managed to win the ultimate prize. Oddly enough, those three instances are the only three instances over the last 10 seasons where a team has ranked higher offensively than they have defensively. This was never more evident than the '09 Saints run to the title, where they scored 510 total points to take the top offensive ranking in the NFL, but ranked 20th in defense, giving up a total of 341 points. That made their average margin of victory 10.6 points.
The last I checked, outscoring your opponents by 10 points per game means you still win, whether the final score is 10-0 or 44-34. To quote former Jets and Chiefs coach Herm Edwards, "You play to win the game!"
With all of this being said, it seems to steer us towards a new philosophy in sports, which can be summed up in a simple quote from former lawyer and author, Alan Dershowitz:
"In law, as in sports, the best defense is often a good offense."
It's been said so often with regard to sports that it's hard to pinpoint where the quote actually originated. In fact, it's almost become the biggest sports cliche around. Preventing the opposition from scoring seems like the most important aspect of any game. Unfortunately, what people fail to realize when taking this approach is one very simple thing:
You yourself still need to score in order to win the game.
Regardless of the sport, statistics don't always tell the entire story. Looking at the final score of a baseball game that ended 1-0, you might surmise that the team which was shut out more than likely failed to get on base. However, what you don't see by the score is that the team scoring the one run had only one hit, a solo home run, that led to the only run of the game, while the losing team gathered 10 hits, but couldn't score. The score itself doesn't tell the whole story.
Or, for the purposes of this post, take the recently started NFL season as an example. More specifically, the opening game of the 2011 season between the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers and the 2009 champs, the New Orleans Saints. The highly anticipated season opener lived up to the hype, with two high-powered offenses shooting it out to the tune of a 42-34 final score, in favor of the Packers. Within minutes after the final gun sounded, many people began questioning the defending champ's defense, having allowed 34 points.
Again, the final score itself doesn't tell the whole story.
Of the last 10 Super Bowl Champions, five had at least one game during their championship season in which they allowed more than 30 points on defense, with the 2007 New York Giants having allowed 30 or more points in four games during their '07 campaign. Along those same lines, three of the last five Super Bowl winners ('06 Colts, '07 Giants, '09 Saints) allowed over 20 points per game.
Why do I bring this up? Of the 34 points allowed Thursday night by the Packers, only 27 came against their defense, with the other touchdown coming in the form of a punt return. Over the last five years, those same three Super Bowl winning teams ('06 Colts, '07 Giants, '09 Saints) allowed a combined eight (8) 30+ point offensive performances from their opponents, yet still managed to win the ultimate prize. Oddly enough, those three instances are the only three instances over the last 10 seasons where a team has ranked higher offensively than they have defensively. This was never more evident than the '09 Saints run to the title, where they scored 510 total points to take the top offensive ranking in the NFL, but ranked 20th in defense, giving up a total of 341 points. That made their average margin of victory 10.6 points.
The last I checked, outscoring your opponents by 10 points per game means you still win, whether the final score is 10-0 or 44-34. To quote former Jets and Chiefs coach Herm Edwards, "You play to win the game!"
With all of this being said, it seems to steer us towards a new philosophy in sports, which can be summed up in a simple quote from former lawyer and author, Alan Dershowitz:
"In law, as in sports, the best defense is often a good offense."
Thursday, September 8, 2011
2011 NFL Predictions
With the 2011 NFL season getting underway Thursday night with a very entertaining game between the Packers and Saints, it seems only fitting to put my 2011 predictions out tonight.
The fact that the NFL's opening game was able to take place on time wasn't necessarily a miracle, but two months ago, seemed almost unlikely. Once the lockout was resolved, teams were able to get their business in order, sign the appropriate players, and start training camp on time, only without any of the other off-season workouts.
As a result, 2011 seems as though it will be as cut and dry as they come. The "haves" will be those teams that have led the pack for a while, teams like the Patriots, Packers, Saints, and Eagles. The "have nots" will be those teams with younger cores, who, with the lockout affecting spring and summer workouts, were unable to get their younger players the reps necessary to become viable challengers. The Titans, Panthers, Bengals, and Seahawks come to mind.
More so than in years past, the 2011 season should see no real surprises. With the news Thursday that Colts' quarterback Peyton Manning will be sidelined for most, if not all, of the 2011 season after undergoing a second surgery on his neck, the only thing that's seemed to shift is the balance of power in the AFC South.
With that said, below are my picks for the 2011 season:
NFC Championship: Packers vs. Saints
AFC Championship: Ravens vs. Patriots
Super Bowl: Packers vs. Patriots
The fact that the NFL's opening game was able to take place on time wasn't necessarily a miracle, but two months ago, seemed almost unlikely. Once the lockout was resolved, teams were able to get their business in order, sign the appropriate players, and start training camp on time, only without any of the other off-season workouts.
As a result, 2011 seems as though it will be as cut and dry as they come. The "haves" will be those teams that have led the pack for a while, teams like the Patriots, Packers, Saints, and Eagles. The "have nots" will be those teams with younger cores, who, with the lockout affecting spring and summer workouts, were unable to get their younger players the reps necessary to become viable challengers. The Titans, Panthers, Bengals, and Seahawks come to mind.
More so than in years past, the 2011 season should see no real surprises. With the news Thursday that Colts' quarterback Peyton Manning will be sidelined for most, if not all, of the 2011 season after undergoing a second surgery on his neck, the only thing that's seemed to shift is the balance of power in the AFC South.
With that said, below are my picks for the 2011 season:
| NFC West | AFC West | |||||
| 1 | Cardinals | 9-7 | 1 | Chargers | 8-8 | |
| 2 | Rams | 8-8 | 2 | Broncos | 7-9 | |
| 3 | 49ers | 4-12 | 3 | Raiders | 5-11 | |
| 4 | Seahawks | 3-13 | 4 | Chiefs | 5-11 | |
| NFC North | AFC North | |||||
| 1 | Packers | 13-3 | 1 | Ravens | 13-3 | |
| 2 | Lions | 9-7 | 2 | Steelers | 13-3 | |
| 3 | Bears | 8-8 | 3 | Browns | 5-11 | |
| 4 | Vikings | 6-10 | 4 | Bengals | 4-12 | |
| NFC East | AFC East | |||||
| 1 | Eagles | 13-3 | 1 | Patriots | 13-3 | |
| 2 | Cowboys | 8-8 | 2 | Jets | 12-4 | |
| 3 | Giants | 8-8 | 3 | Dolphins | 8-8 | |
| 4 | Redskins | 5-12 | 4 | Bills | 5-11 | |
| NFC South | AFC South | |||||
| 1 | Saints | 13-3 | 1 | Texans | 11-5 | |
| 2 | Falcons | 12-4 | 2 | Colts | 5-11 | |
| 3 | Bucs | 12-4 | 3 | Jaguars | 4-12 | |
| 4 | Panthers | 4-12 | 4 | Titans | 2-12 |
NFC Championship: Packers vs. Saints
AFC Championship: Ravens vs. Patriots
Super Bowl: Packers vs. Patriots
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