There really isn't any way to sugar-coat this anymore. The Twins need to find a way to pitch better, and it needs to happen immediately!
Entering Tuesday's game against the Red Sox, the Twins pitching staff has the highest batting average against (.292) in all of Major League Baseball. What does that imply? Frankly, it implies that the Twins' "pitch-to-contact" philosophy is surely working. Sadly, that type of game plan won't allow you to succeed in the professional game against professional hitters. If they haven't yet, the Twins need to realize this, and figure out a different approach.
The fact of the matter is...what was already a problematic area when last season ended, was not addressed before this season began. The Twins decided to rely on a rotation comprised of Scott Baker (career 4.15 ERA and .266 Opp BA), Carl Pavano (4.33 / .284), Nick Blackburn (4.56 / .294), and Francisco Liriano (4.35 / .250). The addition of Jason Marquis to the starting rotation was the only real change made by the Twins entering the season. Marquis is a great guy, and a serviceable starter, but he came into the season with a career ERA of 4.59 and an opponent's BA of .272. Not exactly someone you could count on to shut an opponent down.
Those numbers brought into this season by the starters (with the exception of Scott Baker, who is on the Disabled List) have done nothing but gone up, and will probably continue to go up further as the season progresses. The logic behind the Twins' "pitch-to-contact" philosophy is sound; allow batters to hit the ball and let our fielders make the plays. What baffles me is that the flaw in the logic seems lost on the Twins front office and coaching staff.
What happens when the other team doesn't actually hit the ball TO our fielders, but in places where they aren't?
The answer to that question is what you saw with the 2011 club, and what you are now seeing in the 2012 Twins. Excellent big league hitters are able to hit any type of big league pitching. Average big league hitters are usually able to hit average to above average pitching. Below average big league hitters can usually hit average pitching. What the Twins have is below average pitching, which basically means that all levels of big league hitters will be able to tee off, and thus, they have.
So far this season, excluding the opening series against Baltimore, Twins' opponents have increased their team's batting average in three of the five series. Texas increased its team BA from .257 entering the series with the Twins to .270 after it. New York raised their BA from .253 before playing the Twins, to .276 after the four-game series. So far, through the first two games of its series, Boston has raised its BA from .276 at the start of the series, to .291 after Tuesday night. Needless to say, the Twins pitching staff has been a welcome sight for teams looking to improve their offensive numbers.
When asked about his starters during his post-game interview following Tuesday's 11-2 drubbing at the hands of the Red Sox, manager Ron Gardenhire said, "We have to get them straightened out. We can't go out and buy people. We've gotta make this work. I can't rub a bottle and make people pop out. We have to make these guys work."
You're right, Ron, you can't just go out and buy people. That needed to happen six months ago. With that ball having been dropped, you now need to figure out how to make the best of the situation at hand. That's what great managers do.
It's put up or shut up time.
Tuesday, April 24, 2012
Friday, April 20, 2012
Poor Starting Pitching May Not Just Affect Record
The Twins salvaged a split of their four-game series with the Yankees on Thursday night. If we're being honest with ourselves, I don't think there many Twins fans who wouldn't have been happy with that outcome going into the series, especially being that it was in New York. It was both the way they lost the two games, along with the pattern displayed throughout the series that is causing a great deal of uneasiness for fans, and quite possibly, for the team itself.
In the four-game series, the Twins scored a total of 22 runs. In their two wins, they demonstrated an ability to string together a few clutch two-out hits, and an ability to be able to put the ball out of the ballpark. Justin Morneau looked healthier than he has in almost two years, and showed signs that he may, in fact, be back. Josh Willingham continued to hit the ball well, extending his season-opening hitting streak to 12 games. And clutch hits from the likes of Jamey Carroll, Chris Parmelee, and Danny Valencia proved that not just the Big Three are capable of making contributions to the offense.
What's troubling is the fact that an average of 5.5 runs per game isn't enough to finish greater than .500. What's concerning is that despite better-than-average bullpen support over this four-game series, the Twins still gave up a total of 23 runs. And what's more concerning than that is that, of the 23 runs allowed, 18 were allowed by the Twins' starting pitchers. Yes, you would expect starters to give up more of the runs seeing as they supposedly pitch more innings in the game, but that wasn't the case here. Twins starters pitched a total of only 17 innings in the series, thanks to two abysmal performances by Francisco Liriano (2.1 innings) and Anthony Swarzak (2.2 innings).
Here are a few other numbers and ranks for the Twins' starters through 12 games of the 2012 season:
29th in Innings Pitched (61.33). MLB Leader = Oakland (83.33). MLB Avg = 72.94
29th in Hits/9 Innings (10.71). MLB Leader = Washington (5.62). MLB Avg = 8.55
28th in ERA (5.87). MLB Leader = Washington (1.65). MLB Avg = 4.02
28th in K's/9 Innings (4.70). MLB Leader = New York Yankees (8.91). MLB Avg = 6.83
What does this mean for the Twins going forward?
The obvious answer is that it means the starting pitching effort has to get better in order to achieve some success this season. Without starters being able to get themselves into the mid-to-late innings consistently, it will spell doom for an untested bullpen. Thus far, the bullpen has performed much better than expected, all things considered.
What's not so obvious is the potential strain on the overall morale of the team if the starting staff isn't able to hold up its end of the bargain.
Last season, although frustrating, it was difficult for the Twins pitching staff to be upset about the level of offensive production shown by the lineup, mixed and matched throughout the year due to injury upon injury to the club's bigger weapons. They had to go out and just try to keep the team in it, hopefully by throwing six or seven innings, giving up only two or three runs, and giving the injury-riddled lineup a chance to sneak out enough hits and runs to pull out the victory.
This season, however, will test the patience of the offense. As displayed during the series with the Yankees, the Twins' lineup is capable of putting up some decent numbers this season. They scored six runs in three of the four games, winning two of them. Definitely an improvement from last year, if we're projecting that success out through the rest of 2012.
But how many times this year will this team put up five, six, or even seven runs, only to have the starting rotation allow teams right back into the game by surrendering four or five runs themselves in as many innings? With the MLB average of runs per game sitting around 4.3, you would expect that five, six, or seven runs would be plenty sufficient to win. But, with the Twins staff giving up an average of 5.5 runs per game, that will prove to be very straining on the team, both in the standings, and in the clubhouse.
The Twins offense, especially some of the younger players, could begin to feel some animosity toward the pitching staff, particularly the starters, if they feel like they're not pulling their weight. Pay attention to this trend throughout the year. If it continues, you could see this Twins team that we've come to know and love, become something we never expected.
***UPDATED***
I started writing this Friday morning, prior to Friday's game against the Rays. Liam Hendriks pitched a 5.2 innings, giving up only one run through 5, before loading the bases in the sixth, and giving up a go-ahead 2-run homer to Evan Longoria. All-in-all, Hendriks allowed only 4 runs, and pitched solidly for most of his outing.
In the four-game series, the Twins scored a total of 22 runs. In their two wins, they demonstrated an ability to string together a few clutch two-out hits, and an ability to be able to put the ball out of the ballpark. Justin Morneau looked healthier than he has in almost two years, and showed signs that he may, in fact, be back. Josh Willingham continued to hit the ball well, extending his season-opening hitting streak to 12 games. And clutch hits from the likes of Jamey Carroll, Chris Parmelee, and Danny Valencia proved that not just the Big Three are capable of making contributions to the offense.
What's troubling is the fact that an average of 5.5 runs per game isn't enough to finish greater than .500. What's concerning is that despite better-than-average bullpen support over this four-game series, the Twins still gave up a total of 23 runs. And what's more concerning than that is that, of the 23 runs allowed, 18 were allowed by the Twins' starting pitchers. Yes, you would expect starters to give up more of the runs seeing as they supposedly pitch more innings in the game, but that wasn't the case here. Twins starters pitched a total of only 17 innings in the series, thanks to two abysmal performances by Francisco Liriano (2.1 innings) and Anthony Swarzak (2.2 innings).
Here are a few other numbers and ranks for the Twins' starters through 12 games of the 2012 season:
29th in Innings Pitched (61.33). MLB Leader = Oakland (83.33). MLB Avg = 72.94
29th in Hits/9 Innings (10.71). MLB Leader = Washington (5.62). MLB Avg = 8.55
28th in ERA (5.87). MLB Leader = Washington (1.65). MLB Avg = 4.02
28th in K's/9 Innings (4.70). MLB Leader = New York Yankees (8.91). MLB Avg = 6.83
What does this mean for the Twins going forward?
The obvious answer is that it means the starting pitching effort has to get better in order to achieve some success this season. Without starters being able to get themselves into the mid-to-late innings consistently, it will spell doom for an untested bullpen. Thus far, the bullpen has performed much better than expected, all things considered.
What's not so obvious is the potential strain on the overall morale of the team if the starting staff isn't able to hold up its end of the bargain.
Last season, although frustrating, it was difficult for the Twins pitching staff to be upset about the level of offensive production shown by the lineup, mixed and matched throughout the year due to injury upon injury to the club's bigger weapons. They had to go out and just try to keep the team in it, hopefully by throwing six or seven innings, giving up only two or three runs, and giving the injury-riddled lineup a chance to sneak out enough hits and runs to pull out the victory.
This season, however, will test the patience of the offense. As displayed during the series with the Yankees, the Twins' lineup is capable of putting up some decent numbers this season. They scored six runs in three of the four games, winning two of them. Definitely an improvement from last year, if we're projecting that success out through the rest of 2012.
But how many times this year will this team put up five, six, or even seven runs, only to have the starting rotation allow teams right back into the game by surrendering four or five runs themselves in as many innings? With the MLB average of runs per game sitting around 4.3, you would expect that five, six, or seven runs would be plenty sufficient to win. But, with the Twins staff giving up an average of 5.5 runs per game, that will prove to be very straining on the team, both in the standings, and in the clubhouse.
The Twins offense, especially some of the younger players, could begin to feel some animosity toward the pitching staff, particularly the starters, if they feel like they're not pulling their weight. Pay attention to this trend throughout the year. If it continues, you could see this Twins team that we've come to know and love, become something we never expected.
***UPDATED***
I started writing this Friday morning, prior to Friday's game against the Rays. Liam Hendriks pitched a 5.2 innings, giving up only one run through 5, before loading the bases in the sixth, and giving up a go-ahead 2-run homer to Evan Longoria. All-in-all, Hendriks allowed only 4 runs, and pitched solidly for most of his outing.
Saturday, April 14, 2012
Is The "Twins Way" The Definition Of Insanity?
"The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results."
- Albert Einstein
Technically, Einstein's definition of the word insanity isn't actually correct, however, it does make one think about various situations from time to time. Whether it be for personal or professional reasons, many people actually ask themselves that question when they are not getting the results they're looking for.
Twins fans have been banging their heads against the wall throughout the first week of the 2012 season. Some have been optimistic about what lies ahead, while others are looking at this first week as a harbinger of things to come. But, are the Twins becoming the collective poster child for Einstein's famous definition? The evidence points to a resounding "yes."
The "Twins Way" is something all Twins fans have learned to accept over the last ten years. It started with the "Get To Know 'Em Boys" in the early 2000's and continued with the "Piranhas" a few years later. Those collections of players had distinctive identities. Fundamental play, timely hitting, and consistent hustle were traits those teams shared; traits this 2012 bunch appears (at least early on) to be lacking. So given what transpired last year, and what has been seen early this season, it truly appears this team might be headed down the same path it took in 2011 unless something changes.
That "something" isn't one thing in particular. In the offseason, everyone considers themselves a better General Manager than whomever is holding that title for the Twins, in this case, Terry Ryan. I, myself, am guilty of it, as many of you are. I still contend there was more that could've been done this past offseason with regard to bringing in players to plug a few key holes. Quite frankly, in my opinion, just because the Twins didn't spend their money wisely last year doesn't mean they shouldn't continue to spend money on talent; they just need to be wiser about how they spend it and who they spend it on. Regardless, the roster, at the moment, is what it is, and we know who the key players are. Unfortunately, the biggest issue this year appears to be depth within the pitching department, and that's something the team will have to continue battling through.
The "something" I referred to centers around the offense, and isn't just one thing, but perhaps a series of things. Things meant to potentially alter the insanity that currently is the 2012 Minnesota Twins.
- Switch Up The Batting Order
This is by no means an exact science, but perhaps changing up some of the roles in the lineup might do a few people some good. For starters, it's very evident by the fan reactions of late that the honeymoon period for Joe Mauer being the "Hometown Hero" may have run its course. Fans are expecting much, much more for Joe than they're seeing. Is it possible the responsibility to the team coupled with the expectations of the fans has become a bigger burden on Joe than he's able to take on right now batting third. Although Jamey Carroll has had a few good at-bats thus far, drawing six walks from the two hole, is it possible he might be better suited as the eighth place hitter? Might someone like Danny Valenica see better pitches hitting before Justin Morneau? The answer to all of these questions is...who knows. The point is, at what point does Ron Gardenhire decide to try something a little different in order to potentially get a different result?
My thought here is a simple one. When healthy, Denard Span has been one of the best lead-off hitters the Twins have had in recent memory, so he stays put at the top of the order. Move Carroll out of the second spot, and shift Mauer up. Now, Joe's responsibility has shifted from driving in runs to getting on base, thus allowing him to swing a little more freely. Over his career, speaking strictly percentage-wise, his numbers are better batting second than they are third.
So, with Joe now out of the third spot in the order, who slides in? This may get a few laughs, but I'm being completely serious when I say...Danny Valencia. Valencia has the ability to drive the ball and hit for a bit of power at times. Better yet, he's a right-handed bat separating Mauer and Morneau, which could prove to be potentially beneficial in later inning situations. Plus, anyone who has supervised or managed employees knows that sometimes, you have to empower unrealized talent in order for that talent to realize it in themselves. Give Valencia an opportunity to take the next step in his maturation process as a hitter and as a player.
Similar to Span at the top of the order, no changes need to be made to the four and five spots. If Josh Willingham continues to pound the ball as he has during the first week, Morneau will no doubt begin to see a few better pitches, and will begin to start hitting them hard again. After Willingham, I would move Chris Parmelee into the sixth spot in the order and drop Ryan Doumit to seventh, rounding out the bottom of the order with Carroll and Alexi Casilla. Here's what the lineup card would ultimately look like:
1. Denard Span, CF (L)
2. Joe Mauer, C (L)
3. Danny Valencia, 3B (R)
4. Justin Morneau, DH (L)
5. Josh Willingham, LF (R)
6. Chris Parmelee, 1B (L)
7. Ryan Doumit, RF (S)
8. Jamey Carroll, SS (R)
9. Alexi Casilla, 2B (S)
- Consistency Is Bliss
This one won't take long to explain. Through eight games of the 2012 season, Gardenhire has trotted out six different lineups. Knock on wood, but there are no injuries of any kind to any position players that we're aware of, yet the same lineup has not been brought out to home plate in two consecutive games thus far. Quite honestly, this high school mentality of "everyone needs to play" is a bit absurd at this level of ball. All nine guys I listed above in the ideal lineup should be coming to the ballpark each and every day EXPECTING to be in the starting lineup, regardless of who's on the mound for the opposition. Now, I understand getting guys a day off here and there, but there needs to be some consistency if this thing is ever going to gel.
- Make It Happen On The Bases
In their first eight games of this season, the Twins have stranded a total of 60 runners on base. If we're being realistic, it would've been more had the Twins been able to muster more than two hits in the finale against the Orioles. Ultimately, the offense is relying more on trying to advance runners by just moving station to station. In the past three seasons, the team has ranked no better than ninth in the American League in Stolen Bases, and no better than 18th in all of baseball. With their speed, there is really no reason both Denard Span and Alexi Casilla shouldn't steal at least 30 bases a season. Putting those runners in motion may bring a great deal of risk into the equation, but could also yield a hefty reward to a struggling offense. Think of it this way; the Twins are tied for the Major League lead having grounded into 11 double plays this season. They also lead baseball in the groundout to flyout ratio. If you decide no to straight steal them, utilizing the hit and run could get opposing fielders out of position and open a few holes in the infield. This was the type of hustle exhibited by the original Piranhas, and is something that could prove to be just what the doctor order this season.
Again, these suggestions are probably a little drastic, and maybe even unrealistic. However, there might be something even more unrealistic than my thoughts...
...The idea that Twins fans will continue to support this team if something...anything...doesn't change.
Tuesday, April 10, 2012
Four Games In Is Hardly Time To Overreact!
Let's be honest...
Had the Twins begun the 2012 season by winning two of their first four games, many fans would've considered that a positive.
Had someone told you the Twins would start the 2012 season 0-4, many fans would've probably said "Yea, that wouldn't surprise me."
Had the Twins jumped out to a 4-0 start on the year, many fans would probably be saying, "Yea, but it won't last. They're not really that good."
So, with the honesty out of the bag, why are Twins fans willing to pack the 2012 season in with 158 games left to play?
There's no doubt that the start of this season has been frustrating for fans. It's difficult to stay positive after what we witnessed last year, and what appears to be a mirror image through four games of this season. But to assume that this team won't turn things around sooner rather than later is a bit negative. And that's coming from someone who has had his share of negative opinions of this organization over the last couple of years.
For many teams and players, it's sometimes difficult to jump out of the gates hot. Often times, when teams do look "hot," it's because the team they're playing isn't. Are Red Sox fans running for the hills because Josh Beckett got lit up in his first outing of the year? On the flip side, we know the Tigers are going to be one of the better American League teams, but are they that good to sweep a team like the Red Sox without so much as batting an eye? The answer to both questions is...no.
What Twins fans need to realize is that things will come. The offense will turn around and begin hitting the ball hard. We've already seen evidence of Josh Willingham being able to drive the ball over the fence, and Justin Morneau has been making solid contact when bat has met ball. We've seen some positive things from a couple of pitchers, namely Glen Perkins and a five-inning stretch from Nick Blackburn. The defense has been a little shaky to start, which we all had hoped would be better. But all-in-all, if people were expecting perfection out of the gates, they might want to re-evaluate their level of baseball knowledge.
The Twins will be fine. We're not expecting a Division Title, are we? We're just expecting them to be better than last year. And that will be the case.
Had the Twins begun the 2012 season by winning two of their first four games, many fans would've considered that a positive.
Had someone told you the Twins would start the 2012 season 0-4, many fans would've probably said "Yea, that wouldn't surprise me."
Had the Twins jumped out to a 4-0 start on the year, many fans would probably be saying, "Yea, but it won't last. They're not really that good."
So, with the honesty out of the bag, why are Twins fans willing to pack the 2012 season in with 158 games left to play?
There's no doubt that the start of this season has been frustrating for fans. It's difficult to stay positive after what we witnessed last year, and what appears to be a mirror image through four games of this season. But to assume that this team won't turn things around sooner rather than later is a bit negative. And that's coming from someone who has had his share of negative opinions of this organization over the last couple of years.
For many teams and players, it's sometimes difficult to jump out of the gates hot. Often times, when teams do look "hot," it's because the team they're playing isn't. Are Red Sox fans running for the hills because Josh Beckett got lit up in his first outing of the year? On the flip side, we know the Tigers are going to be one of the better American League teams, but are they that good to sweep a team like the Red Sox without so much as batting an eye? The answer to both questions is...no.
What Twins fans need to realize is that things will come. The offense will turn around and begin hitting the ball hard. We've already seen evidence of Josh Willingham being able to drive the ball over the fence, and Justin Morneau has been making solid contact when bat has met ball. We've seen some positive things from a couple of pitchers, namely Glen Perkins and a five-inning stretch from Nick Blackburn. The defense has been a little shaky to start, which we all had hoped would be better. But all-in-all, if people were expecting perfection out of the gates, they might want to re-evaluate their level of baseball knowledge.
The Twins will be fine. We're not expecting a Division Title, are we? We're just expecting them to be better than last year. And that will be the case.
Thursday, April 5, 2012
"The Miz's" 2012 Minnesota Twins Predictions
There's really only one direction to go after a dismal 2011, right?
Coming off the franchise's worst season since 1982 (102 losses), there is a lot that Twins fans could feel optimistic about going into 2012. For starters, could it possibly get any worse than last year? Significant injuries to significant players, shaky defense from a typically solid fielding ball club, and sub-par pitching from...well, let's face it...a barely par staff, all led to a barely watchable season of baseball for fans of our local nine. One would hope, however, that the injuries, poor fielding, and inept pitching could not repeat themselves in 2012.
With Terry Ryan back in the saddle, Twins fans should at least be comforted with one thought: At least we'll be competitive, as most Terry Ryan-fielded teams are. The Twins may not win the division, but at least fans won't flock in droves to Stub-Hub to unload their tickets, as appeared to be the case in August and September of 2011.
Knowing that a major part of the Twins' success centers around health, getting through Spring Training appears to have been a major success, with the exception of Scott Baker. Baker has been hampered by elbow problems again this spring, which will keep him out of the rotation for a few weeks, especially given his setback on Thursday evening. Regardless, injuries occur, and are not often something that can be planned around. So, given that fact, for the sake of these predictions, we're going to assume 100% health, or at least what we know now going into the Season Opener against Baltimore on Friday.
1.) The Twins will raise their team run total from 619 runs in 2011 to 725 in 2012.
With the re-additions of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau into the lineup, coupled with the integration of Chris Parmelee as a full-time first baseman, the Twins will have a solid core of potentially high average hitters. Having two veterans in Denard Span and Jamey Carroll setting the table at the top of the lineup, the team should be able to sustain quite a few more longer-than-normal innings on the offensive end, which will lead to more run-scoring throughout the season. Because of the uncertainty with the pitching staff, however, this won't necessarily translate into more wins for the team. The offense won't be as anemic as 2011, which will no doubt help their cause, but don't be surprised to see the Twins lose a few more 8-7 and 10-9 games this year.
2.) Chris Parmelee will win American League Rookie of the Year.
This would be considered my "bold" prediction of the 2012 season. To be honest, I haven't been this excited for a Twins rookie in quite a long time. During the final few weeks of 2011, Parmelee showed he could no doubt hang with the big boys, if given the opportunity to play. Unfortunately, with Justin Morneau occupying first base, that didn't appear to be something that would happen any time soon. With Ron Gardenhire's decision to move Morneau permanently into the DH spot in 2012 (or at least for the foreseeable future), the path was paved for Parmelee to take the reigns at first base. For a young hitter, he has tremendous vision at the plate, can work the count deep, and can also deposit the ball over the fence. Look for this kid to garner a lot of attention from fans, and the baseball media alike, as the season progresses.
3.) Glen Perkins will become the team's closer by the end of May.
I really want this to be more of a reflection on Perkins' talent as a relief pitcher than a shot at Matt Capps, but unfortunately, that will be hard to justify. Capps will be the team's closer entering the regular season, and all signs should point to him rebounding from a difficult season in 2011, which saw him booed mercilessly by Twins fans. The fact of the matter is, regardless of how great a guy he is, or what he brings to the clubhouse, Capps' style of pitching will become more of a liability than an asset. With a mediocre fastball, and really no "go to" pitch to get hitters out, Capps has decided to bring a split-finger fastball into his repertoire. If, and when, this new pitch begins to falter, Capps will find himself going back to what he's been accustomed to, which is the fastball. As that happens, hitters will be ready, and Twins fans will find themselves pulling their hair out a couple of times in April and May. Perkins will be given the opportunity, and will run with it. By season's end, look for Perkins to have more saves than Capps.
4.) Francisco Liriano will set a career high with 18 wins.
We all know he has the talent. We all know he has the right stuff. It's just time for Frankie to believe it himself, and go out there with confidence. If his spring was any indication, it seems like he may just have figured it out. In 27 spring innings, Liriano had a 2.33 ERA, allowed only 27 hits, surrendered only 5 walks, and struck out 33. Obviously, the hitters one faces during a spring game are potentially much different than one might face in the regular season, so the hits and strikeouts could be a bit deceiving. The walks, however, are something that can be looked at with great excitement. What Liriano appears to have figured out is that the devastating slider he has (and yes, it is nasty) does not need to be thrown three or four times an at-bat. He's begun to realize that locating the fastball and getting ahead of hitters will allow him the ability to drop that slider in when it's actually needed. That type of control is exactly what he needs to be successful. As always with Liriano, only time will tell, but from the signs we're all seeing, this season looks like a promising one.
5.) The Twins will be relevant in the American League Central race through August.
OK, so, this one's a little vague. Having lost 99 games in 2011, many people around baseball, as well as many fans of the Twins locally, have already written the 2012 team off as being too similar to their 2011 predecessor. As I stated early on in this post, assuming they're not struck down by the injury bug once again, this team, although appearing similar, is actually different. The lineup, in my opinion, actually got stronger. With the additions of new left fielder Josh Willingham, and back-up catcher/right fielder Ryan Doumit, Parmelee at first base, and a healthy Mauer and Morneau, this Twins lineup should a.) hit for a higher average, b.) hit more home runs, and thus c.) drive in more runs than the 2011 club. Defensively, the Twins brought in Jamey Carroll to solidify the middle infield with Alexi Casilla. Again, injuries were a huge driving force behind the poor fielding seen during 2011, with many players playing positions they may not have been accustomed to. Lastly, if the pitching staff can keep the team in ballgames, (which obviously sounds very cliche, but true), the team will have a chance to win quite a few more games than last season. My second "bold" prediction is that your Minnesota Twins will actually improve their win total to 86 games (up from 63 in 2011). Unfortunately, 86 wins won't be enough to overtake Detroit in the division this season, although it will be much closer than people think. The Twins will, however, finish second in the AL Central, just ahead of the Cleveland Indians.
All told, the 2012 Minnesota Twins should be much more interesting to watch, be a much more exciting team to cheer for, and frankly, be more of a contending team than many are expecting.
Friday starts it off. As of now, it's a clean slate. 0-0. My prediction: 86-76, second in the American League Central.
Coming off the franchise's worst season since 1982 (102 losses), there is a lot that Twins fans could feel optimistic about going into 2012. For starters, could it possibly get any worse than last year? Significant injuries to significant players, shaky defense from a typically solid fielding ball club, and sub-par pitching from...well, let's face it...a barely par staff, all led to a barely watchable season of baseball for fans of our local nine. One would hope, however, that the injuries, poor fielding, and inept pitching could not repeat themselves in 2012.
With Terry Ryan back in the saddle, Twins fans should at least be comforted with one thought: At least we'll be competitive, as most Terry Ryan-fielded teams are. The Twins may not win the division, but at least fans won't flock in droves to Stub-Hub to unload their tickets, as appeared to be the case in August and September of 2011.
Knowing that a major part of the Twins' success centers around health, getting through Spring Training appears to have been a major success, with the exception of Scott Baker. Baker has been hampered by elbow problems again this spring, which will keep him out of the rotation for a few weeks, especially given his setback on Thursday evening. Regardless, injuries occur, and are not often something that can be planned around. So, given that fact, for the sake of these predictions, we're going to assume 100% health, or at least what we know now going into the Season Opener against Baltimore on Friday.
1.) The Twins will raise their team run total from 619 runs in 2011 to 725 in 2012.
With the re-additions of Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau into the lineup, coupled with the integration of Chris Parmelee as a full-time first baseman, the Twins will have a solid core of potentially high average hitters. Having two veterans in Denard Span and Jamey Carroll setting the table at the top of the lineup, the team should be able to sustain quite a few more longer-than-normal innings on the offensive end, which will lead to more run-scoring throughout the season. Because of the uncertainty with the pitching staff, however, this won't necessarily translate into more wins for the team. The offense won't be as anemic as 2011, which will no doubt help their cause, but don't be surprised to see the Twins lose a few more 8-7 and 10-9 games this year.
2.) Chris Parmelee will win American League Rookie of the Year.
This would be considered my "bold" prediction of the 2012 season. To be honest, I haven't been this excited for a Twins rookie in quite a long time. During the final few weeks of 2011, Parmelee showed he could no doubt hang with the big boys, if given the opportunity to play. Unfortunately, with Justin Morneau occupying first base, that didn't appear to be something that would happen any time soon. With Ron Gardenhire's decision to move Morneau permanently into the DH spot in 2012 (or at least for the foreseeable future), the path was paved for Parmelee to take the reigns at first base. For a young hitter, he has tremendous vision at the plate, can work the count deep, and can also deposit the ball over the fence. Look for this kid to garner a lot of attention from fans, and the baseball media alike, as the season progresses.
3.) Glen Perkins will become the team's closer by the end of May.
I really want this to be more of a reflection on Perkins' talent as a relief pitcher than a shot at Matt Capps, but unfortunately, that will be hard to justify. Capps will be the team's closer entering the regular season, and all signs should point to him rebounding from a difficult season in 2011, which saw him booed mercilessly by Twins fans. The fact of the matter is, regardless of how great a guy he is, or what he brings to the clubhouse, Capps' style of pitching will become more of a liability than an asset. With a mediocre fastball, and really no "go to" pitch to get hitters out, Capps has decided to bring a split-finger fastball into his repertoire. If, and when, this new pitch begins to falter, Capps will find himself going back to what he's been accustomed to, which is the fastball. As that happens, hitters will be ready, and Twins fans will find themselves pulling their hair out a couple of times in April and May. Perkins will be given the opportunity, and will run with it. By season's end, look for Perkins to have more saves than Capps.
4.) Francisco Liriano will set a career high with 18 wins.
We all know he has the talent. We all know he has the right stuff. It's just time for Frankie to believe it himself, and go out there with confidence. If his spring was any indication, it seems like he may just have figured it out. In 27 spring innings, Liriano had a 2.33 ERA, allowed only 27 hits, surrendered only 5 walks, and struck out 33. Obviously, the hitters one faces during a spring game are potentially much different than one might face in the regular season, so the hits and strikeouts could be a bit deceiving. The walks, however, are something that can be looked at with great excitement. What Liriano appears to have figured out is that the devastating slider he has (and yes, it is nasty) does not need to be thrown three or four times an at-bat. He's begun to realize that locating the fastball and getting ahead of hitters will allow him the ability to drop that slider in when it's actually needed. That type of control is exactly what he needs to be successful. As always with Liriano, only time will tell, but from the signs we're all seeing, this season looks like a promising one.
5.) The Twins will be relevant in the American League Central race through August.
OK, so, this one's a little vague. Having lost 99 games in 2011, many people around baseball, as well as many fans of the Twins locally, have already written the 2012 team off as being too similar to their 2011 predecessor. As I stated early on in this post, assuming they're not struck down by the injury bug once again, this team, although appearing similar, is actually different. The lineup, in my opinion, actually got stronger. With the additions of new left fielder Josh Willingham, and back-up catcher/right fielder Ryan Doumit, Parmelee at first base, and a healthy Mauer and Morneau, this Twins lineup should a.) hit for a higher average, b.) hit more home runs, and thus c.) drive in more runs than the 2011 club. Defensively, the Twins brought in Jamey Carroll to solidify the middle infield with Alexi Casilla. Again, injuries were a huge driving force behind the poor fielding seen during 2011, with many players playing positions they may not have been accustomed to. Lastly, if the pitching staff can keep the team in ballgames, (which obviously sounds very cliche, but true), the team will have a chance to win quite a few more games than last season. My second "bold" prediction is that your Minnesota Twins will actually improve their win total to 86 games (up from 63 in 2011). Unfortunately, 86 wins won't be enough to overtake Detroit in the division this season, although it will be much closer than people think. The Twins will, however, finish second in the AL Central, just ahead of the Cleveland Indians.
All told, the 2012 Minnesota Twins should be much more interesting to watch, be a much more exciting team to cheer for, and frankly, be more of a contending team than many are expecting.
Friday starts it off. As of now, it's a clean slate. 0-0. My prediction: 86-76, second in the American League Central.
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