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Saturday, June 4, 2011

Perception Vs. Reality: The Tale Of Two First Basemen

There are many quotes about perception.  One involves perception being reality, the other involves perception being in the eye of the beholder.  Both are true statements when one truly thinks about it.  In the case of Albert Pujols an Justin Morneau, two of the top first basemen in baseball, both apply, however, the realities don't match the perceptions placed upon them by their separate eyes of their beholders.

Both Pujols and Morneau have been thought to have been slumping this year.  Throughout the month of May, both were struggling at the plate, different from what each had done the previous year, and in Pujols's case, his entire career.  Pujols went through a homerless drought in May that finally came to an end after close to 110 at-bats.  Morneau, after missing the last half of the season in 2010 with a concussion, has come back a shell of his 2010 first-half self, hitting below .240 with only two home runs (until hitting two in the Twins' June 1st loss to the Detroit Tigers).  So...the perception of both sluggers is that they were struggling and slumping.

Here's the reality:

A "slumping" Pujols is now hitting an un-Pujols-like .275 with 12 home runs (after hitting two, including a 12th inning walk-off on Saturday against the Cubs), and 37 RBI's.  His .275 average ranks 6th on the Cardinals amongst their regulars.  His two homers Saturday have tied him with Lance Berkman for the team lead with 12, and his total of 37 RBI's have him second on the team behind Berkman.  So...the perception of Albert struggling right now is based on what?  His career averages of .329, 37 HR, and 115 RBI?  The sad thing is, Albert's insane career already has set his bar ridiculously high.  So high that when he actually hits "average" numbers, we see it as struggling.

Morneau, on the other hand, is actually struggling.  The part that is getting at me, though, is the lofty bar that Twins fans have placed on their above average slugger.  Notice the descriptive words used.  I said "above average," not "great."  What most Twins fans need to realize is that Morneau is not a "great" hitter.  His career only spans two less seasons than that of Pujols, but his numbers are nowhere near that of the "great" slugger in this conversation.  Thus far in 2011, Morneau is hitting .236, with only 4 home runs, and 20 RBI's.  But...let's look at his career averages.  Batting average?  He's a career .283 hitter.  Home runs?  His career average is 21.  RBI's?  Only 78 RBI's on average per year.  So, what are people basing their perception of "slumping" on?  His MVP 2006 season?  His first half of 2010?  Clearly these people aren't looking at the overall body of work.

It's almost hard to put Albert Pujols and Justin Morneau in the same conversation, because the reality of it is, they're not in the same class.  Pujols is easily the best player in baseball, hands down.  To me, there is no more evidence needed than that of Pujols's performance against the rival Cubs on Saturday, which I was fortunate enough to be in attendance for at Busch Stadium.  My very first trip to St. Louis, and I saw one of the game's greatest clutch performers ever.  There was no question that Pujols would be involved in the deciding run of that game, whether it have been a walk to put him aboard, or the outcome we saw, which was a hanging breaking ball drilled into the bullpen in left.    The feeling was there that the Cardinals' go-to guy would be the one to ultimately put the team on his shoulders.  Morneau doesn't come through in these situations, as evidenced by his .191 average with runners on base, and his .235 average with runners in scoring position.  Compared to the .301 and .328 averages in those same categories that Pujols puts up, there is no comparison.

Morneau is a good player, don't get me wrong.  But Twins fans, please don't make the mistake of calling him great.  He is far from it.  When the chips are down, he's not the player you can count on to pick you up.  He's not a leader, and on a team in dire need of leadership, that's not a good sign from one of your "stars".

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