Ron Gardenhire should know what to do right now. For the second time in the last three games, he's had to take his closer out of the game in favor of Glen Perkins to try and save two wins. This after Matt Capps had an inexcusable blown save Saturday against the Brewers, coughing up a three-run lead in the ninth inning. With the starting rotation doing everything in its power to keep this team relatively above water (albeit still in the shallow end), Gardy needs to make the right decision here. Demoting Matt Capps from the closer role, and promoting Perkins, who is proving to be the most consistent asset out of the bullpen this season.
With the blown save Saturday, Capps now leads Major League Baseball with six blown saves. That's six times he's let his starters down this season. When closers are as shaky as Capps has been, it begins to affect the rest of the team. Fortunately, the bullpen instability seems to have improved the performance of the starting rotation. Until leaving in the fifth inning with a right elbow strain, Scott Baker was throwing a terrific game, locating his pitches well, and throwing a minimal amount of pitches through those first few innings. Knowing that turning the ball over to the bullpen this season has likely meant either a no-decision or a loss, the starters have been really bearing down, putting together a great run over the last five weeks, and pulling the Twins within striking distance going into the All-Star break.
In order for the Twins to stay within range of the Indians and Tigers atop the division, Gardy will need to ensure that the leads his lineup are staking the starters to are not wasted away by the bullpen, namely a closer like Capps. As I've said before, just because you were great last year doesn't mean you will always be great. As a manager, Gardenhire needs to look at the current status of the team. Right now, that status indicates that Capps is not the right guy for the job. As he begins to show continued improvement coming off his Tommy John surgery, maybe Joe Nathan will be ready to reassume his role later this season, but for right now, the choice should be Glen Perkins, who has proven his worth this season as the best option in an otherwise forgettable bullpen.
Before the season began, it seemed like a perfect scenario, to have both Capps and Nathan in the closer role, given Nathan's injury status. Having that alternative, that back-up, was more than the team could ask for. Now, as we sit five days into the month of July, the question should be asked: Would Capps have any value for a team as we near the trade deadline? If the Twins begin to utilize both Perkins and Nathan in that closer role, and move Capps back into the bullpen as more of a set-up man, would be become expendable? The answer should be..."yes". Hindsight is always 20/20, and given what we'd seen last season from the closer role (remembering that Nathan was out from the beginning) it's possible that maybe trading for Capps wasn't the best decision. Even John Rauch, who began the year in the closer role, only blew four (4) saves last season. Here we sit on July 5th, and Capps, an established closer, has blown six (6). Moreover, the man the Twins traded for Capps, Wilson Ramos, has outhit both Drew Butera and Rene Rivera this season. With the Twins knowing their All-Star catcher has some lingering knee and leg issues, it might not have been the smartest idea to unload your best option to back him up behind the plate. But, they did, and here we sit. Like I said...hindsight's 20/20.
Just because a closer loses his spot at the end of the game doesn't mean he's done being a closer. Brad Lidge went through a difficult time back in 2007 with the Astros, and was feeling probably just like Capps is feeling now, as though nothing you do can go right. The following season, after changing teams, Lidge was 41-41 in save opportunities. Maybe Capps needs nothing more than a change of scenery. Fortunately for the Twins, the trade deadline is approaching. It's time to start testing the waters for those in need of some bullpen help.
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Monday, July 4, 2011
Closing The Door On Closers
Another day, another blown save. That's been the story for the 2011 Minnesota Twins. Between Joe Nathan early in the season, and Matt Capps shortly thereafter, the Twins have been having a very difficult time showing confidence in their closers. With Saturday night's blown save and subsequent loss against the Milwaukee Brewers, the Twins ran their total to 17 of 30 in save opportunities this season. Something to think about, especially for a team sitting nine games under .500 for the season. Imagine what those additional 13 games could mean in the standings, considering the Twins are only 8 games back of the Cleveland Indians for first place in the American League Central.
So, exactly how important is it to have a reliable closer in baseball? It's something we've heard about for many years, that having that "terminator" type hurler at the back of the bullpen is a must for any team considering a run at the World Series Championship. Would you believe that in 2009, the Phillies advanced to the World Series after having blown a total of 22 saves during the year? Strangely enough, the 2010 Texas Rangers blew 20 saves and still made it to the World Series, only to go down to the San Francisco Giants. Are saves really the end-all-be-all when it comes to making it into the playoffs? For that matter, are closers even really that important?
With the roller coaster ride that's been the Twins' season thus far, it's obvious that it hasn't been just the bullpen that has cost them many games. It's also fair to say that they are where they are in large part to the bullpen's ineffectiveness throughout the first half. Nathan and Capps have both been the reason for many nervous stomachs in Twins Territory, but the middle relief has been equally to blame. In fact, during the Twins 8-game win streak earlier in June, it almost seemed clear to everyone that Ron Gardernhire and Rick Anderson had such little faith in their bullpen that the phrase "pitch count" seemed to escape both of their vocabularies. We saw pitch counts in the 110-120 range for almost all of the starters at one point during that stretch. Kudos to the starters for putting the team on their backs and throwing some of the best baseball they have in a long time. But at some point, the bullpen needs to hold its own.
Given Capps recent tendency to give up the lead late, it seemed as though Gardy was sending a message on Sunday afternoon, handing the ball to Glen Perkins to close the game out. His reasoning was almost as nonsensical as the defense's closing arguments in the Casey Anthony murder trial. His explanation for allowing the left-handed Perkins to face Prince Fielder of the Brewers was more about the "match-up" than it was about a lack of confidence in Capps. Really? Since when do you play the match-up card when dealing with closers? I'm sure we'll hear the same logic from Joe Girardi of the Yankees when he decides to lift Mariano Rivera for the left-handed Boone Logan to face two lefties in the top of the ninth.
The save is the most over-rated statistic in all of sports. The object in baseball, as in any sport, is to win the game. What I've never been able to figure out is why the idea of match-ups are forgotten when it comes to closers. As fans, we can sit and watch managers come in and out of the dugout three or four times in the seventh or eighth inning, going from lefty to righty to lefty again based on which side of the batter's box the next hitter steps in to, yet, in the ninth inning, we will see that same manager bring a right-handed closer into the lineup to face the middle of a team's lineup comprised of all left-handed hitters. Really? So...the match-ups don't matter now? How does that work?
What the Twins need to do is just win games. If that means playing the match-up game in the ninth inning instead of giving the ball to either Capps or Nathan, then that's what Gardy needs to do. The closer-by-committee option isn't a bad one, it's just not the norm.
So, exactly how important is it to have a reliable closer in baseball? It's something we've heard about for many years, that having that "terminator" type hurler at the back of the bullpen is a must for any team considering a run at the World Series Championship. Would you believe that in 2009, the Phillies advanced to the World Series after having blown a total of 22 saves during the year? Strangely enough, the 2010 Texas Rangers blew 20 saves and still made it to the World Series, only to go down to the San Francisco Giants. Are saves really the end-all-be-all when it comes to making it into the playoffs? For that matter, are closers even really that important?
With the roller coaster ride that's been the Twins' season thus far, it's obvious that it hasn't been just the bullpen that has cost them many games. It's also fair to say that they are where they are in large part to the bullpen's ineffectiveness throughout the first half. Nathan and Capps have both been the reason for many nervous stomachs in Twins Territory, but the middle relief has been equally to blame. In fact, during the Twins 8-game win streak earlier in June, it almost seemed clear to everyone that Ron Gardernhire and Rick Anderson had such little faith in their bullpen that the phrase "pitch count" seemed to escape both of their vocabularies. We saw pitch counts in the 110-120 range for almost all of the starters at one point during that stretch. Kudos to the starters for putting the team on their backs and throwing some of the best baseball they have in a long time. But at some point, the bullpen needs to hold its own.
Given Capps recent tendency to give up the lead late, it seemed as though Gardy was sending a message on Sunday afternoon, handing the ball to Glen Perkins to close the game out. His reasoning was almost as nonsensical as the defense's closing arguments in the Casey Anthony murder trial. His explanation for allowing the left-handed Perkins to face Prince Fielder of the Brewers was more about the "match-up" than it was about a lack of confidence in Capps. Really? Since when do you play the match-up card when dealing with closers? I'm sure we'll hear the same logic from Joe Girardi of the Yankees when he decides to lift Mariano Rivera for the left-handed Boone Logan to face two lefties in the top of the ninth.
The save is the most over-rated statistic in all of sports. The object in baseball, as in any sport, is to win the game. What I've never been able to figure out is why the idea of match-ups are forgotten when it comes to closers. As fans, we can sit and watch managers come in and out of the dugout three or four times in the seventh or eighth inning, going from lefty to righty to lefty again based on which side of the batter's box the next hitter steps in to, yet, in the ninth inning, we will see that same manager bring a right-handed closer into the lineup to face the middle of a team's lineup comprised of all left-handed hitters. Really? So...the match-ups don't matter now? How does that work?
What the Twins need to do is just win games. If that means playing the match-up game in the ninth inning instead of giving the ball to either Capps or Nathan, then that's what Gardy needs to do. The closer-by-committee option isn't a bad one, it's just not the norm.
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