Championship Ingredients Aren't Always The Same

"Defense wins championships."

It's been said so often with regard to sports that it's hard to pinpoint where the quote actually originated.  In fact, it's almost become the biggest sports cliche around.  Preventing the opposition from scoring seems like the most important aspect of any game.  Unfortunately, what people fail to realize when taking this approach is one very simple thing:

You yourself still need to score in order to win the game.

Regardless of the sport, statistics don't always tell the entire story.  Looking at the final score of a baseball game that ended 1-0, you might surmise that the team which was shut out more than likely failed to get on base.  However, what you don't see by the score is that the team scoring the one run had only one hit, a solo home run, that led to the only run of the game, while the losing team gathered 10 hits, but couldn't score.  The score itself doesn't tell the whole story.

Or, for the purposes of this post, take the recently started NFL season as an example.  More specifically, the opening game of the 2011 season between the defending Super Bowl Champion Green Bay Packers and the 2009 champs, the New Orleans Saints.  The highly anticipated season opener lived up to the hype, with two high-powered offenses shooting it out to the tune of a 42-34 final score, in favor of the Packers.  Within minutes after the final gun sounded, many people began questioning the defending champ's defense, having allowed 34 points.

Again, the final score itself doesn't tell the whole story.

Of the last 10 Super Bowl Champions, five had at least one game during their championship season in which they allowed more than 30 points on defense, with the 2007 New York Giants having allowed 30 or more points in four games during their '07 campaign.  Along those same lines, three of the last five Super Bowl winners ('06 Colts, '07 Giants, '09 Saints) allowed over 20 points per game.

Why do I bring this up?  Of the 34 points allowed Thursday night by the Packers, only 27 came against their defense, with the other touchdown coming in the form of a punt return.  Over the last five years, those same three Super Bowl winning teams ('06 Colts, '07 Giants, '09 Saints) allowed a combined eight (8) 30+ point offensive performances from their opponents, yet still managed to win the ultimate prize.  Oddly enough, those three instances are the only three instances over the last 10 seasons where a team has ranked higher offensively than they have defensively.  This was never more evident than the '09 Saints run to the title, where they scored 510 total points to take the top offensive ranking in the NFL, but ranked 20th in defense, giving up a total of 341 points.  That made their average margin of victory 10.6 points.

The last I checked, outscoring your opponents by 10 points per game means you still win, whether the final score is 10-0 or 44-34.  To quote former Jets and Chiefs coach Herm Edwards, "You play to win the game!"

With all of this being said, it seems to steer us towards a new philosophy in sports, which can be summed up in a simple quote from former lawyer and author, Alan Dershowitz:

"In law, as in sports, the best defense is often a good offense."

2011 NFL Predictions

With the 2011 NFL season getting underway Thursday night with a very entertaining game between the Packers and Saints, it seems only fitting to put my 2011 predictions out tonight.

The fact that the NFL's opening game was able to take place on time wasn't necessarily a miracle, but two months ago, seemed almost unlikely.  Once the lockout was resolved, teams were able to get their business in order, sign the appropriate players, and start training camp on time, only without any of the other off-season workouts.

As a result, 2011 seems as though it will be as cut and dry as they come.  The "haves" will be those teams that have led the pack for a while, teams like the Patriots, Packers, Saints, and Eagles.  The "have nots" will be those teams with younger cores, who, with the lockout affecting spring and summer workouts, were unable to get their younger players the reps necessary to become viable challengers.  The Titans, Panthers, Bengals, and Seahawks come to mind.

More so than in years past, the 2011 season should see no real surprises.  With the news Thursday that Colts' quarterback Peyton Manning will be sidelined for most, if not all, of the 2011 season after undergoing a second surgery on his neck, the only thing that's seemed to shift is the balance of power in the AFC South.

With that said, below are my picks for the 2011 season:

	NFC West				AFC West
1	Cardinals	9-7		1	Chargers	8-8
2	Rams	8-8		2	Broncos	7-9
3	49ers	4-12		3	Raiders	5-11
4	Seahawks	3-13		4	Chiefs	5-11
	NFC North				AFC North
1	Packers	13-3		1	Ravens	13-3
2	Lions	9-7		2	Steelers	13-3
3	Bears	8-8		3	Browns	5-11
4	Vikings	6-10		4	Bengals	4-12
	NFC East				AFC East
1	Eagles	13-3		1	Patriots	13-3
2	Cowboys	8-8		2	Jets	12-4
3	Giants	8-8		3	Dolphins	8-8
4	Redskins	5-12		4	Bills	5-11
	NFC South				AFC South
1	Saints	13-3		1	Texans	11-5
2	Falcons	12-4		2	Colts	5-11
3	Bucs	12-4		3	Jaguars	4-12
4	Panthers	4-12		4	Titans	2-12

NFC Championship: Packers vs. Saints
AFC Championship: Ravens vs. Patriots

Super Bowl: Packers vs. Patriots