This Twins Downfall Started In 2007

With the Twins' season coming to a close this week, there have been some positive discussions and quite a few negative ones.  To be fair, I've been one who has chosen to see more of the negative aspects of this club than the positives, after all, there have been almost twice as many.  We've beat the injury excuse to death already.  I've hinted that perhaps it's the coaching staff who should be to blame, although I'm beginning to back off that idea a little bit.  Just this past week, I heard the ultimate reason for the Twins demise this season: The Curse of Wally The Beer-Man.

In all reality, the Twins' demise this season, their ineptitude in postseasons of the past, and the potential struggles yet to come in future seasons, can be traced back to one fateful day back in September of 2007.  It was then that Mr. Bill Smith accepted a promotion from Vice President, Assistant General Manager to Terry Ryan to become the new Senior Vice President, General Manager of the Minnesota Twins.

Smith was immediately handed a difficult task: Finding a way to either keep center-fielder Torii Hunter and  two-time Cy Young winner Johan Santana, or to make the most out of their departure.  It was clear from the start that it would be impossible to hold on to both players.  Hunter was a free agent after the 2007 season, and Santana would be after the 2008 campaign.  If Smith opted to throw the necessary money at Hunter to keep him, then Santana would be lost.  If he decided to let Hunter go and focus his attention on Santana, he'd risk losing both without getting anything.

The Twins made an offer to Hunter in August of 2007; a three-year, $45 million offer.  The offer was made by then GM Terry Ryan.  Smith took over the reigns in mid-September as the GM, and failed to make another offer.  Whether it was something lost in the shuffle of the transition, or just a decision that they couldn't go any higher, the Twins lost Hunter to the Los Angeles Angels for a five-year, $90 million contract.  Although disappointing to lose someone of Hunter's character and talent, it opened the door for Smith and the Twins to focus their attention on keeping the best pitcher in baseball, Santana.

Smith turned his attention to Santana, knowing it would either be a "re-sign him or trade him" outcome.  The club offered him a five-year, $96 million deal.  Santana's people countered with a seven-year, $126 million deal.  It quickly became clear that Santana's price would be too high, and the club's best chance would be to trade Santana and get some good value in return.  In hindsight, Santana has missed the entire 2011 season and part of the 2010 season with elbow injuries, so signing him may have proved to be a mistake, however, I'm not sure that mistake would compare to the colossal blunder that was about to happen.

Deciding to trade Santana, the Twins put everyone on notice, entertaining offers from the Dodgers, Mets, Yankees, and Red Sox.  As you would expect they would, the Yankees and Red Sox began battling with each other to try and land Santana.  The Dodgers, seeing what the Sox and Yankees were offering, quickly decided to pull out of the running.  Smith had exactly what he should've wanted: a bidding war of sorts between the Yankees and Red Sox.  First the Red Sox upped their offer, and then the Yankees threw in another stud, which caused the Sox to make another change.  In the end, the offers sat there for a couple weeks.

They sat until Smith had done the impossible.  He'd actually annoyed the Yankees enough by not making a decision that they'd lost interest and pulled their best offer off the table.  That offer included outfielder Melky Cabrera and pitcher Phil Hughes.  That left the Red Sox and Mets.  The Red Sox began to lose interest, as well, having waited long enough for an answer.  Smith continued to push them for more and more, even after they'd improved their original offer dramatically.  In the end, the Red Sox offered a trade with one of two centerpieces: either left-handed pitcher Jon Lester, or center fielder Jacoby Ellsbury, coupled with two young prospects, pitcher Justin Masterson and infielder Jed Lowrie.  Smith asked for all four.  The Red Sox said no.  So, Smith did the only thing he could do.

He accepted the Mets offer.

The Mets offered outfielder Carlos Gomez and three pitchers; Philip Humber, Deolis Guerra, and Kevin Mulvey.  Gomez had played a few games for the Mets in 2007 and showed some promise, but was very rough around the edges.  The three pitchers had little to no big league experience, and would be projects.  Hindsight, again, is always 20/20, but taking a look at the cornerstone players involved in the deals with Red Sox, Yankees, and Mets since 2008 (the year they would've been Twins), it's clear that Smith's run as General Manager of the Twins would be nothing short of disappointing.

		Jacoby Ellsbury		Melky Cabrera		Carlos Gomez
Avg		.298		.274		.244
AB		1902		2012		1412
H		566		552		344
HR		48		43		22
RBI		215		234		132
XBH		168		164		101
SB		165		46		81
		Justin Masterson		Phil Hughes		Philip Humber
G		146		105		48
W		28		31		11
L		38		20		10
ERA		3.92		4.49		4.05
IP		613.2		369.1		202.2
SO		485		310		138
BB		238		125		58

If you want more proof, here you go:

• November 29th, 2007: Smith trades pitcher Matt Garza (career 51-54, 3.84 ERA, 761 SO) and SS Jason Bartlett (career .275, 31 HR, 282 RBI) to Tampa Bay for outfielder Delmon Young (career .287, 69 HR, 402 RBI) and SS Brendan Harris (career .260, 29 HR, 158 RBI).  Although this trade happened before the Santana trade, it's significance wasn't known until the Twins failed to acquire a legit replacement for Santana at the top of the rotation.  Garza had potential to be a top tier starter, and proved so in Tampa Bay's run to the World Series in 2008.
• December 9th, 2010: Smith trades SS J.J. Hardy (who was acquired a year earlier from Milwaukee for Carlos Gomez) and SS Brendan Harris (who was acquired for Garza and Young) and $500,000 to Baltimore for pitcher Brett Jacobson and relief pitcher Jim Hoey.  The move was made to clear room, both under the cap and on the field, for the Twins to bring in SS Tsuoyshi Nishioka from Japan.  No need to say anything more on that.
• July 29th, 2010: Smith trades prized catching prospect Wilson Ramos to the Washington Nationals for closer Matt Capps.  With Joe Nathan missing the entire 2010 season with Tommy John surgery, it was important for the Twins to get someone to seal up games at the end.  Although his 2011 was less than desired, Capps filled the critical role perfectly last season.  The issue with this deal, you ask?  With the health of Joe Mauer a question even last season, to trade a valuable back-up catching option like Ramos for a closer in the heat of the moment was a terrible decision.  To put it in perspective, Ramos' 2011 season: .269, 15 HR, 52 RBI, 38 XBH, and a On Base+Slugging % of .784.  The Twins two back-up catchers, Drew Butera and Rene Rivera combined in 2011: .160, 3 HR, 28 RBI, 16 XBH, and a combined On Base+Slugging % of .436. A decision that no doubt affected the Twins this season.

Unfortunately for Twins fans, I don't think we've seen the last of Mr. Smith.  This offseason will prove to be an interesting one, to say the least.